predictions for Texas game

First, a comment on the Big 12 race.  Houston's most difficult remaining game, at
least on paper, is today.  Baylor needs to win, and Kansas needs to win, this being
the second-easiest remaining game for the Jayhawks.  If only one of those happens,
Kansas will be two games back in the loss column with four games to play.  Still
not impossible, but extremely unlikely.  If neither happens, the Fat Lady is warming
up her vocal cords.

Interesting match-up today.  Kansas is one of just three Big 12 teams that is
undefeated at home.  Meanwhile, Texas is much better on the road than it is at home,
having three road wins to its credit and four home losses.  Maybe the Moody Center
is too new to offer the sort of familiarity that contributes to the home advantage?
But they must have the crowd advantage.  A very puzzling situation.

Perhaps Texas' prowess on the road is why Dunkel is picking Texas to win by 3 points.
Everyone else is picking Kansas, by anywhere from 2.2 points (the common opponents
comparison) to 11 points (RealTime, with its enormous home court advantage).  The
average is 6 points in favor of Kansas, with a scatter of 3 points.  That's a two
possession game, which would keep things exciting all the way to the end.  The most
reliable prognosticator, however, is Vegas, which is calling for Kansas to win by
8.5 points, a three possession affair.  Dunkel, the lone naysayer, has been the
worst of the prognosticators.  So how did he manage to be the best prognosticator
in one of the rounds this season?  Well, every now and then, one of his wacky
predictions comes true.  Let's hope that doesn't happen today.

Texas does have a positive trend, while the trend of Kansas is negative, but
neither is statistically significant.  Texas does seem to perform more poorly
against tougher competition, though the significance is weak.  Surprisingly,
the mental toughness value for Kansas is effectively nonexistent, meaning that
the Jayhawks play equally well against tough and weak opponents.  Kind of runs
against the popular notion that Kansas has been playing down to the level of the
competition this season.  Then again, everybody in the Big 12 is in the top half
of Division I.

Both teams score at about the same pace, so 144 total points is a resaonable
expectation.  Pomeroy has Texas with a marginally better offense, while Kansas
has a decidedly better defense.

A big uncertainty is whether McCullough (channeling Fran Fraschilla here) will
be able to play.  Self said during Hawk Talk this week that Kevin "tweaked" his
knee, so it sounds like his recovery had a setback, despite having a full week
to rest.  Maybe Dunkel is expecting him not to play, contributing to the
predicted loss and the under on total points (Dunkel is saying 135).

The last time Texas played double digits below expectation was 10 games ago.
Meanwhile, they had a double-digit above-expectation performance just three
games ago, and they've had three of them in the last eight games, which
explains the positive trend.  Can't afford for the Longhorns to have one of
those today.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      UT      KU      Defensive Stats      UT      KU
Points/Game         75.7    76.4     Opp Points/Game     67.9    68.0
Avg Score Margin    +7.8    +8.3     Opp Effective FG %  48.0    46.6
Assists/Game        15.8    19.4     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.6     7.2
Total Rebounds/Gm   35.4    36.0     Def Rebounds/Gm     23.5    25.8
Effective FG %      53.6    54.7     Blocks/Game          4.9     3.8
Off Rebound %       28.5    24.6     Steals/Game          6.8     7.5
FTA/FGA            0.298   0.316     Personal Fouls/Gm   16.7    14.8
Turnover %          15.1    14.6   

My Stats Comparison        KU             UT
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.86           +0.52    
inconsistency         11.91           10.36    
trend                 -0.16 ± 0.34    +0.15 ± 0.27
mental toughness      -0.01 ± 0.25    -0.15 ± 0.18         
average total pts      144.40         143.54

Common Opponents
================
There are twelve common opponents, ten in conference, plus Connecticut and
Marquette, one of which Kansas has played twice (Oklahoma), and two of which
Texas has played twice (West Virginia, Houston), giving us fifteen scores to
compare:

KU   +4 Con at home ( +1 neutral court)
UT  -10 Con neutral (-10 neutral court)
KU  +14 UT  at home (+11 neutral court)

KU  -14 Mar neutral (-14 neutral court)
UT  -21 Mar on road (-18 neutral court)
KU   +7 UT  at home ( +4 neutral court)

KU  -29 TTU on road (-26 neutral court)
UT  -11 TTU at home (-14 neutral court)
KU   -9 UT  at home (-12 neutral court)

KU   +5 UC  at home ( +2 neutral court)
UT   +1 UC  on road ( +4 neutral court)
KU   +1 UT  at home ( -2 neutral court)

KU   -6 WVU on road ( -3 neutral court)     KU   -6 WVU on road ( -3 neutral court)
UT   -3 WVU on road (  0 neutral court)     UT  +36 WVU at home (+33 neutral court)
KU    0 UT  at home ( -3 neutral court)     KU  -33 UT  at home (-36 neutral court)

KU   -5 UCF on road ( -2 neutral court)
UT   -6 UCF at home ( -9 neutral court)
KU  +10 UT  at home ( -7 neutral court)

KU   +3 BU  at home (  0 neutral court)
UT   +2 BU  at home ( -1 neutral court)
KU   +4 UT  at home ( +1 neutral court)

KU  +10 OU  on road (+13 neutral court)     KU  +12 OU  at home ( +9 neutral court)
UT  +15 OU  on road (+18 neutral court)     UT  +15 OU  on road (+18 neutral court)
KU   -2 UT  at home ( -5 neutral court)     KU   -6 UT  at home ( -9 neutral court)

KU  +13 UH  at home (+10 neutral court)     KU  +13 UH  at home (+10 neutral court)
UT   -4 UH  at home ( -7 neutral court)     UT  -21 UH  on road (-18 neutral court)
KU  +20 UT  at home (+17 neutral court)     KU  +31 UT  at home (+28 neutral court)

KU   +2 TCU at home ( -1 neutral court)
UT  +11 TCU on road (+14 neutral court)
KU  -12 UT  at home (-15 neutral court)

KU   -4 ISU on road ( -1 neutral court)
UT   -5 ISU at home ( -8 neutral court)
KU  +10 UT  at home ( +7 neutral court)

KU   -5 KSU on road ( -2 neutral court)
UT   +6 KSU at home ( +3 neutral court)
KU   -2 UT  at home ( -5 neutral court)

Eight of the comparisons favor Kansas, six favor Texas, and one is a wash.
The average is 2.2 points in favor of Kansas, with a scatter of 14.9 points.
The West Virginia comparison is particularly bad for Kansas, while the Houston
comparison is particularly good for Kansas.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Max Abmas (guard)
most points        Dylan Disu (forward)
most rebounds      Dillon Mitchell (forward)
most assists       Max Abmas (guard)
most steals        Dylan Disu (forward)
most blocks        Kadin Shedrick (forward)
most turnovers     Tyrese Hunter (guard)
most fouls         Dylan Disu (forward)

I might take these with a grain of salt, as it appears that Greenfield has a
serious bug in their database, based on the fact that the Kansas player with the
most minutes is Charlie McCarthy with 37.00, the Kansas player with the most
points is Charlie McCarthy with 34.00, and the Kansas player with the most steals
is Charlie McCarthy with 2.00.  "To err is humnan; to really screw up takes a
computer."

                                                          20-6           17-9
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Texas
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +5.00   74   69       67       #  6   #  5    # 23   # 31
Pomeroy                 +5.58   75   70       70.1     # 17   #  8    # 33   # 54
Greenfield              +8.50   76.5 68                # 16   #  9    # 25   # 23
Dunkel                  -3.00   66   69                # 12           # 34
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +8.50   76   68                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +5.41   74   69       68.3     # 18   #  7    # 21   # 19
Real Time              +11.00   79   68       71.9     # 14   # 14    # 55   # 79
Seven Overtimes         +6.00   75   69       74       # 14   # 11    # 45   # 49
DPPI                    +6.90   75.5 69       68.6     # 14   #  9    # 27   # 45 
ESPN BPI                +6.40                 45.2     # 17   #  7    # 25   # 32
Whitlock                +6.00                          # 16   # 24    # 37   # 34
Colley Matrix           +8.50                          # 12   # 23    # 52   # 52
Donchess                +7.30   76.5 69       73.7     # 13   # 10    # 28   # 35
Haslametrics            +6.01   75   69                # 16           # 32
INCCStats               +5.00   75   70       68       # 16           # 27
common opponents        +2.20
NCAA NET                                               # 17           # 38
LRMC                                                   # 20   # 27    # 34   # 60
Massey composite                                       # 11           # 34
Pomeroy offense                                        # 45           # 27
Pomeroy defense                                        #  8           # 47
Pomeroy tempo                                          #111           #238
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +5.96   74.8 68.9     67.4
scatter                  3.10    3.1  0.7      8.7

Here is Kansas' season, with a projected record of 23-8:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #264 North Carolina Central      99  56   +22.49   +20.51
HOME   #346 Manhattan                   99  61   +30.93    +7.07
NEUT   # 23 Kentucky                    89  84    +1.16    +3.84
Div2        Chaminade                   83  56
NEUT   # 13 Marquette                   59  73    -0.91   -13.09
NEUT   #  7 Tennessee                   69  60    -3.76   +12.76
HOME   #318 Eastern Illinois            71  63   +26.18   -18.18
HOME   #  3 Connecticut                 69  65    -1.61    +5.61
HOME   #253 UMKC                        88  69   +21.75    -2.75
HOME   #144 Missouri                    73  64   +15.82    -6.82
AWAY   #103 Indiana                     75  71    +6.17    -2.17
HOME   # 90 Yale                        75  60   +10.96    +4.04
NEUT   #156 Wichita St.                 86  67   +14.09    +4.91
HOME   # 32 TCU                         83  81    +5.61    -3.61
AWAY   # 73 UCF                         60  65    +3.35    -8.35
HOME   # 36 Oklahoma                    78  66    +6.15    +5.85
AWAY   #100 Oklahoma St.                90  66    +5.79   +18.21
AWAY   #145 West Virginia               85  91    +9.37   -15.37
HOME   # 42 Cincinnati                  74  69    +6.90    -1.90
AWAY   #  9 Iowa St.                    75  79    -5.70    +1.70
HOME   #100 Oklahoma St.                83  54   +12.79   +16.21
HOME   #  1 Houston                     78  65    -3.86   +16.86
AWAY   # 72 Kansas St.                  70  75    +3.05    -8.05
HOME   # 14 Baylor                      64  61    +2.64    +0.36
AWAY   # 25 Texas Tech                  50  79    -2.10   -26.90
AWAY   # 36 Oklahoma                    67  57    -0.85   +10.85
HOME   # 33 Texas                       75  70    +5.58             0.701
HOME   # 15 BYU                         78  75    +3.29             0.622
AWAY   # 14 Baylor                      72  76    -4.36             0.340
HOME   # 72 Kansas St.                  73  63   +10.05             0.829
AWAY   #  1 Houston                     60  71   -10.86             0.152

Here is Texas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #336 Incarnate Word              88  56   +27.09    +4.91
HOME   #294 Delaware St.                86  59   +22.56    +4.44
HOME   #192 Rice                        80  64   +16.68    -0.68
NEUT   #196 Louisville                  81  80   +14.14   -13.14
NEUT   #  3 Connecticut                 71  81    -6.89    -3.11
HOME   #176 Wyoming                     86  63   +15.96    +7.04
HOME   #236 Texas St.                   77  58   +18.40    +0.60
AWAY   # 13 Marquette                   65  86    -6.49   -14.51
HOME   #353 Houston Christian           77  50   +30.52    -3.52
NEUT   # 77 LSU                         96  85    +4.91    +6.09
HOME   #181 Texas A&M Corpus Chris      71  55   +16.70    -0.70
HOME   #136 UNC Greensboro              72  37   +12.87   +22.13
HOME   #151 UT Arlington                79  62   +15.04    +1.96
HOME   # 25 Texas Tech                  67  78    +2.85   -13.85
AWAY   # 42 Cincinnati                  74  73    -2.25    +3.25
AWAY   #145 West Virginia               73  76    +6.90    -9.90
HOME   # 73 UCF                         71  77    +8.06   -14.06
HOME   # 14 Baylor                      75  73    +0.69    +1.31
AWAY   # 36 Oklahoma                    75  60    -2.97   +17.97
AWAY   # 15 BYU                         72  84    -5.79    -6.21
HOME   #  1 Houston                     72  76    -5.54    +1.54
AWAY   # 32 TCU                         77  66    -3.57   +14.57
HOME   #  9 Iowa St.                    65  70    -0.69    -4.31
HOME   #145 West Virginia               94  58   +13.90   +22.10
AWAY   #  1 Houston                     61  82   -12.54    -8.46
HOME   # 72 Kansas St.                  62  56    +7.82    -1.82
AWAY   # 17 Kansas                      70  75    -5.58             0.299
AWAY   # 25 Texas Tech                  71  75    -4.15             0.348
HOME   #100 Oklahoma St.                77  67   +10.46             0.839
AWAY   # 14 Baylor                      71  77    -6.31             0.275
HOME   # 36 Oklahoma                    73  69    +4.03             0.648