Looking at our Bigs: by eye test and by the numbers...

Jesse Newell has an interesting column today, which underscores how Lucas and Traylor are not getting it done on the defensive end, either:

cjonline.com/sports/hawkzone/2016-02-02/...ense-missing-2015-16

It prompted me to think about this a lot more than I already have (which is quite a lot, sadly).

So, on the purely qualitative side of the ledger, what is it, exactly, that our two upperclassmen bigs bring to the floor?

Is it "experience?" Yes, they do have that. Lots of it. IMHO, experience at playing erratic (Jamari) and experience at playing vanilla (Landon).

Is it "the understanding of what KU is running?" Okay, I'll concede that one, particularly for Landon. But you also have to execute--it's not enough to just have an understanding of what's going on if you can't run it and finish effectively. Landon can't finish well at the rim, and as Senex notes, refuses to dunk the ball with power for what would seem an easy 2 points on occasion. As for Jamari, as Senex, Corpus, and I have pointed out ad nauseum, he misses simple bunnies far too often to count. He doesn't box out consistently well on rebounds. He doesn't defend well in space against screen switches. He has very little chops when it comes to rim protection. He turns the ball over when passing and dribbling at an excessive rate. And he routinely blows screening assignments with illegal screen calls--often negating a KU score in the process. He does, however, provide hustle and energy, and for every 3-4 mistakes will occasionally make a big play. So there's that.

Is there anything else to add?
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As for the quantitative side, with Newell having covered the important defensive category of blocks and rim protection, here's a look at some other interesting numbers for the bigs on this year's KU squad, courtesy of Sports-Reference.com, the key web source for advanced statistics :

www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/kansas/2016.html

There are lots of different tables and data points here, but the ones that really stand out for production at the 4/5 spots are as follows (with leaders to last in descending order):

(Per 40 Minutes Table, 2-point performance*)

1. Bragg, 7.7
2. Diallo, 7.4
3. Ellis, 6.9
4. Mickelson, 5.1
5. Lucas, 4.1
6. Traylor, 2.6

What stands out: Bragg, Diallo, and Ellis are the most proficient interior scorers among our bigs. Mickelson is decent as well, Lucas brings about half of what Bragg does, and Traylor is both sub-par and rock-bottom. It's also worth noting total points scored per 40 minutes, from that same table: Ellis at 21.8, Diallo at 18.2, Bragg at 17.6, and then Lucas at 11.3, Traylor at 8.0. Bottom line: when Lucas and Traylor are on the court at the same time, expect some truly horrid production around the rim.

(Per 40 Minutes Table, total rebounds**)

1.Lucas, 14.5
2. Mickelson, 11.6
3. Diallo, 11.6
4. Traylor, 10.3
5. Bragg, 10.2
6. Ellis, 8.9

What stands out: Other than Lucas standing out as our best rebounder (by a significant 3 rebounds per game), this is pretty much a wash. Mick and Diallo get almost 1.5 more RPG than Traylor, but Traylor and Bragg are pretty much identical. Ellis brings up the rear, pretty noticeably, but that's to be expected given his frame relative to the other guys.

(100 Possession table, total points***)

1. Ellis, 30.7
2. Diallo, 25.6
3. Bragg, 24.7
4. Mickelson, 17.4
5. Lucas, 15.9
6. Traylor, 11.3

What stands out: No surprise that Ellis is at the top as the most proficient scorer. Also no surprise (to this observer, anyway) that Traylor is the polar opposite, and dead last with very putrid numbers. Lucas is better, but still not good. Mickelson is a bit better than Lucas, while our two young guys really stand out with their high numbers, despite having much experience against good-caliber competition. And again, when Lucas and Traylor are on the court at the same time, look for KU to go into a notable scoring funk inside. (Instead of teams playing us "5 on 4" when it's just one of those two in the game, they can essentially play us "5 on 3" when both are in and KU has the ball.)

(100 Possession table, overall Defensive Rating****)

1. Mickelson, 83.3
2. Diallo, 89.9
3. Traylor, 92.7
4. Lucas, 94.9
5. Bragg, 95.8
6. Ellis, 99.7

What stands out: Mickelson stands out as the best inside defender. Diallo also does a good job, relatively speaking. Traylor actually specs out above Lucas, which surprises me a bit. There's a slight drop-off with Bragg, which rings true with this observer's "eye test." Ellis pulls up the rear, which should surprise no one for this category.

(100 Advanced table, overall Player Efficiency Rating, offense/defense*****)

1. Mickelson, 24.3
2. Ellis, 23.2
3. Diallo, 20.7
4. Bragg, 20.2
5. Lucas, 16.5
6. Traylor, 13.4

What stands out: Taking out Ellis, whose role and minutes are clearly established with Self, Mickelson stands out as providing the best overall game (at this juncture) among the remaining bigs. After that, Diallo and Bragg clearly hover above the more experienced Lucas and Traylor--the two players garnering the lion's share of remaining 4/5 minutes.

In short, when it comes to Mickelson and the young guys (as playing options) versus the upperclassmen, the number of minutes earned relative to actual on-court production seems very skewed. And if we're left with a MPG choice just between Lucas and Traylor, Lucas specs out as the more effective player and slightly more optimal choice (not accounting for matchups, etc.).

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FWIW...

I'm curious to hear what others see in the numbers (and what you think overall). And for those who really crunch these on a daily basis (Corpus, I'm looking at you!) to wade in with any interpretations, addenda, caveats, and perspective. But let's not keep this confined to the pure number-crunchers. What say you, RCB board members? (Regular posters, less frequent posters, and lurkers)

As an aside, it would also be intriguing for someone else to parse these numbers when thinking about actual pairings or 3-man rotations on the floor, relative to what we tend to actually see with playing and substitution patterns in KU games. Just to get a sense of ideal sub-rotations and so forth... I definitely don't have time to do that...

Even if we don't see significant changes in the rotation and MPG allocation going forward, this is an interesting discussion to have.

Let me close this tome by getting the following out of the way. I have no personal axe to grind with Traylor or Lucas (who I happen to think deserves more minutes than the latter, IF it comes down to that rather unsavory choice). No animus whatsoever. I love both kids and their stories. I appreciate their sacrifices. I welcome the fact that they work hard and wear the KU uniform with pride. Both are lifetime members of the Jayhawk family and fraternity. The focus here is pure production on the court, and who can help KU be the best team it can be this season. So it would be nice to keep the discussion focused purely on those meritocratic dimensions.

Fire away...
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(Notes)

* This stat is important because this is what bigs are charged to do when they get the ball near the rim on offense: score 2-point buckets.

** This stat is important because bigs have to rebound the ball. (Captain Obvious)

*** Another indicator of offensive efficiency.

**** The overall composite rating for a player's defensive efficiency (that is, how he executes on the defensive end (to include the FT line), covering estimated points allowed per 100 possessions.

***** The overall rating of each player's per-minute productivity on both offense and defense combined. (For more on this, see www.basketball-reference.com/about/per.html and espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?id=2850240...mnist=hollinger_john )

Just so I'm clear on what you're saying, the advanced stats take into account different minutes levels among players. That's why they "regularize" them to a common standard (e.g., 40 minutes, or a full game, or 100 possessions).

In other words, they break down each player's efficiency levels based on the minutes they actually do play, then estimate those out (based on their formulas for the particular variables in question), over a common, standardized measurement. That's intentional, so they can get to some solid comparative estimates.

And unlike some of the baseball projection metrics that look out into the future (see: Fangraphs, ZiPs, etc.), the data cited here are not projecting future performance based on past performance. Instead, they're citing concrete, present data to show you how each player is faring (individually and comparatively) in the here and now. So it's pretty revealing stuff.

Are we on the same page with that?

Yep, I totally get that. It's the "sample size" question...as in very differentiated sample sizes.

I take the point (completely). The counter to that, of course, is that it takes Self to make that happen. In other words, statistically speaking, we've got a chicken-egg problem with your critique, because we can't get a bigger sample size until Self plays them more.

Generally speaking, however, doesn't your gut tell you that Bragg's and Diallo's numbers would likely go up (even if slightly) as their playing time increased? Or at worst, stay about the same?

It seems to me that the more court time they've gotten this year, the better they've looked. Yes, they're still making mistakes, but that takes us back, in part, to the chicken-egg thing with Self again. They are young, they're going to make mistakes, but the more time they get on the floor, presumably the more they'll get comfortable, the more they'll know their role, the more they'll gel with the other parts, and so on. (I know that the countervailing data point is probably Jamari, who really hasn't improved on a year-to-year basis, but you get the point...and he clearly didn't come in with the far higher ceiling that Diallo and Bragg possess.)

JR--Thanks. You've never been one to mince words, so tell us how you really feel.

Dwight Coleby will be in the fold after a year in the system (injury recovery, etc.). Lightfoot will be a freshman.

Diallo and Bragg? Who knows?