Big 12 projection, round 13

                      Init   Rd 1   Rd 2   Rd 3   Rd 4   Rd 5   Rd 6   Rd 7   Rd 8   Rd 9 
                      Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj 
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins 
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
#  1  Houston        14.753 14.923 13.906 13.102 13.291 13.395 13.891 14.032 14.157 13.223
#  9  Iowa State     10.283  9.500 10.640 11.064 10.363 11.068 11.222 11.568 11.539 11.155
# 12  Baylor         10.930 11.363 11.925 11.971 11.226 10.485 10.535  9.608 10.046 10.482
# 23  Texas Tech      8.828 10.113 10.523 10.532 10.116 10.926 10.955 11.724 11.279 10.376
# 17  Kansas         11.129 11.165  9.953 10.509 11.149  9.975 10.129  9.899 10.141 11.123
# 33  TCU             8.897  8.838  9.434 10.428 10.101  9.485  9.699 10.539 10.935  9.956
# 16  BYU            13.331 11.595 10.811 11.086 11.754 10.996 10.537 10.883 10.865 11.066
# 36  Cincinnati      8.497  9.970  9.053  8.992  9.415  8.605  8.372  8.680  7.848  8.699
# 29  Texas           8.957  7.615  8.460  7.481  6.422  7.099  8.313  8.013  7.835  8.802
# 37  Oklahoma        9.775 10.625 10.049  9.582  9.673 10.451  9.153  8.438  9.338  8.485
# 75  Kansas State    6.225  7.348  8.108  7.872  8.624  8.740  8.583  8.349  7.542  6.881
# 68  UCF             5.855  4.785  5.635  5.777  6.960  6.883  7.267  6.935  6.465  7.319
#111  Oklahoma State  4.861  4.635  4.385  3.978  3.409  3.237  2.968  3.292  3.086  3.656
#148  West Virginia   3.680  3.467  2.787  3.626  3.496  4.655  4.376  4.040  4.923  4.778

                      Rd 10  Rd 11  Rd 12  Rd 13
                      Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Conf.             Pred.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Recrd  Next Game  Score
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------  -----  ---------  -----
#  1  Houston        13.167 13.469 13.495 13.683   9  3   ISU  Mon  68-59
#  9  Iowa State     11.780 12.143 12.688 13.007   9  3  @UH   Mon  59-68
# 12  Baylor         10.774 10.471 10.937 11.153   8  4  @BYU  Tue  77-80
# 23  Texas Tech     10.130 10.375 10.873 10.868   7  5   TCU  Tue  78-74
# 17  Kansas         10.347 10.683  9.932 10.644   8  5   bye
# 33  TCU             9.970  9.722  9.777 10.308   7  5  @TTU  Tue  74-78
# 16  BYU            10.308 10.396 10.497  9.493   6  6   BU   Tue  80-77
# 36  Cincinnati      8.651  8.364  7.830  8.348   5  7   OSU  Wed  75-64
# 29  Texas           8.185  8.413  8.431  8.215   5  7   KSU  Mon  73-65
# 37  Oklahoma        9.244  9.193  8.802  8.104   6  7   bye
# 75  Kansas State    7.698  7.564  7.630  7.143   5  7  @UT   Mon  65-73
# 68  UCF             7.299  7.063  6.950  6.351   4  8  @WVU  Tue  71-68  road win
#111  Oklahoma State  3.667  3.625  3.574  4.559   3  9  @UC   Wed  64-75
#148  West Virginia   4.780  4.520  4.312  4.124   3  9   UCF  Tue  68-71

The BPI took honors for best prognostications in Round 13, with Dolphin a very close
second.  Dunkel once again pulled up the rear by a wide margin.  Vegas retained the
season lead, with Dunkel still pulling up the rear.

Three road wins were projected for Round 13, and two of those happened, while two other
unexpected ones occurred.  BYU failed to pick up a win in Stillwater, while Kansas did
get a win in Norman, and Cincinnati picked up the win in Orlando.  Only one road win is
projected for Round 14, with UCF projected to win in Morgantown.

Road wins (28 out of  85)                    Home losses                                   RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
3 Baylor         OSU UCF WVU                 0 Houston                                    +3 UH
3 Cincinnati     BYU TTU UCF                 0 Iowa State                                 +3 ISU
3 Houston        BYU UT  UC                  0 Kansas                                     +2 BU
3 Iowa State     TCU UT  UC                  1 Baylor         TCU                         +2 KU
3 TCU            OSU BU  KSU                 1 Texas Tech     UC                          +1 TCU
3 Texas          UC  OU  TCU                 2 BYU            UC  UH                      +1 TTU
2 BYU            UCF WVU                     2 Kansas State   OU  TCU                      0 BYU
2 Kansas         OSU OU                      2 TCU            ISU UT                      -1 UC
2 Oklahoma       UC  KSU                     3 Oklahoma       UT  TTU KU                  -1 KSU
2 Texas Tech     UT  OU                      3 Oklahoma State BU  KU  TCU                 -1 OU
1 Kansas State   WVU                         3 UCF            BYU BU  UC                  -1 UT
1 UCF            UT                          3 West Virginia  KSU BYU BU                  -2 UCF
0 Oklahoma State                             4 Cincinnati     UT  OU  UH  ISU             -3 OSU 
0 West Virginia                              4 Texas          TTU UCF UH  ISU             -3 WVU

It has occurred to me that the inconsistency value can be somehwat misleading,
because it depends on how many total points you score.  To use an extrene
example, a soccer team that scores 1 or 2 or 3 goals per game isn't going to
have an inconsistency of 10 points!  Take two teams with identical inconsistencies,
the one that score fewer total points will have a smaller inconsistency value.  That
is exemplified by Houston in the Big 12.  So, as an experiment, I have normalized
the inconistency values to a total score average of 150 points per game, and that
is shown in the second column, which is the column I have sorted on this time around.
TCU remains the most consistent team in the Big 12.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    -----------------------------
BYU             +3.77    TCU               7.39   7.27
Iowa State      +3.49    Oklahoma State    8.33   8.79
Houston         +3.01    West Virginia     8.89   9.31
Baylor          +2.30    Houston           8.36   9.73
Cincinnati      +1.43    Cincinnati        9.33   9.80
TCU             +1.34    Baylor           10.35  10.13
UCF             +1.33    Texas            10.40  10.79
Oklahoma        +1.08    Texas Tech       10.47  10.86
Kansas          +0.92    Oklahoma         10.93  11.50
Texas           +0.45    Iowa State       11.26  11.96
Texas Tech      +0.32    UCF              11.36  12.29
Kansas State    +0.27    Kansas State     11.58  12.32
Oklahoma State  -0.24    Kansas           11.91  12.37
West Virginia   -1.29    BYU              12.54  12.38

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Texas Tech      +0.37 +/- 0.29    Kansas State    +0.09 +/- 0.24
Texas           +0.20 +/- 0.29    Kansas          -0.01 +/- 0.25
UCF             +0.15 +/- 0.34    West Virginia   -0.03 +/- 0.22
Oklahoma State  +0.13 +/- 0.23    Oklahoma        -0.08 +/- 0.19
Kansas State    +0.10 +/- 0.33    Cincinnati      -0.09 +/- 0.19
West Virginia   +0.01 +/- 0.25    TCU             -0.09 +/- 0.12
TCU             -0.13 +/- 0.21    Texas Tech      -0.09 +/- 0.21
Kansas          -0.18 +/- 0.34    Texas           -0.14 +/- 0.18
Cincinnati      -0.23 +/- 0.26    Oklahoma State  -0.15 +/- 0.14
Baylor          -0.30 +/- 0.31    UCF             -0.18 +/- 0.21
Houston         -0.43 +/- 0.22    Iowa State      -0.50 +/- 0.17
Iowa State      -0.44 +/- 0.31    Houston         -0.60 +/- 0.14
Oklahoma        -0.49 +/- 0.27    Baylor          -0.64 +/- 0.16
BYU             -1.08 +/- 0.27    BYU             -0.66 +/- 0.20

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
BYU             82.80   Houston         55.45   Baylor          153.21   Houston         +17.98
Baylor          81.99   Iowa State      63.04   TCU             152.44   Iowa State      +15.12
TCU             81.17   UCF             67.12   BYU             152.00   BYU             +13.60
Iowa State      78.16   Oklahoma        67.29   Texas           144.56   Baylor          +10.77
Kansas          76.01   Cincinnati      67.72   Texas Tech      144.56   TCU              +9.90
Texas Tech      75.83   Kansas          68.39   Kansas          144.40   Oklahoma         +7.96
Texas           75.64   Texas Tech      68.73   West Virginia   143.28   Kansas           +7.62
Oklahoma        75.25   Texas           68.92   Cincinnati      142.76   Cincinnati       +7.32
Cincinnati      75.04   BYU             69.20   Oklahoma        142.54   Texas Tech       +7.10
Houston         73.43   Kansas State    69.61   Oklahoma State  142.12   Texas            +6.72
UCF             71.50   Baylor          71.22   Iowa State      141.20   UCF              +4.38
Kansas State    71.43   TCU             71.27   Kansas State    141.04   Kansas State     +1.82
Oklahoma State  70.68   Oklahoma State  71.44   UCF             138.62   Oklahoma State   -0.76
West Virginia   67.74   West Virginia   75.54   Houston         128.88   West Virginia    -7.80

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas         +11.14 (  6)
Baylor          +9.89 ( 15)
West Virginia   +9.87 ( 17)
Kansas State    +7.80 ( 41)
Texas           +7.41 ( 47)
Texas Tech      +7.16 ( 51)
Houston         +7.03 ( 55)
Cincinnati      +6.80 ( 60)
Oklahoma        +6.50 ( 66)
Iowa State      +6.27 ( 70)
UCF             +6.26 ( 71)
BYU             +5.88 ( 73)
Oklahoma State  +5.87 ( 74)
TCU             +5.68 ( 76)