predictions for Oklahoma game

LRMC is now on board for this season, but they're always this late.

Seven Overtimes has another one of those bizarre predictions, picking
Oklahoma to win by 2 points, but having only 38 percent confidence in
the prediction.  Does that mean Kansas has a 62 percent chance of
winning the game?

It's too easy to dismiss the Texas Tech loss as being due to the
absences of McCullar and McDowell, but they were also absent for
the Baylor game, and Kansas still managed to beat Baylor.  In Lubbock,
the Jayhawks could not have beaten the Topeka YMCA.  What is it about
road games?  We beat Indiana on the road; then again, Indiana is only
#98 in Pomeroy's rankings, and only two Big 12 teams rank lower than
that (but we've lost to one of them on the road).  Let's just say that
I'm glad the Big 12 and NCAA tournaments will be played on neutral
courts, and there's no travel involved between the conference tournament
games or between the two NCAA tournament games each weekend.  But first
the Jayhawks need to get healthy.  No bone bruises; no flu; no rolled
ankles.

Fifteen of the sixteen predictions tabulated below are calling for
today's game to be a one-possession affair.  The outlier is RealTime,
whose enormous home court advantage is calling for Oklahoma to win by
8 points.  The average is 1.35 points in favor of Oklahoma, because
only three of the prognosticators picked Kansas, and the scatter is
2.16 points.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      OU      KU      Defensive Stats      OU      KU
Points/Game         76.7    76.8     Opp Points/Game     66.6    68.5
Avg Score Margin   +10.1    +8.3     Opp Effective FG %  45.7    46.9
Assists/Game        13.9    19.5     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.5     7.1
Total Rebounds/Gm   36.4    35.8     Def Rebounds/Gm     25.0    25.6
Effective FG %      53.9    54.9     Blocks/Game          3.4     4.0
Off Rebound %       28.3    24.4     Steals/Game          6.3     7.6
FTA/FGA            0.375   0.317     Personal Fouls/Gm   16.0    14.7
Turnover %          15.8    14.6   

My Stats Comparison        KU             OU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.95           +1.00    
inconsistency         11.80           10.96    
trend                 -0.31 ± 0.35    -0.43 ± 0.30
mental toughness      -0.07 ± 0.25    -0.05 ± 0.19         
average total pts      145.25         143.28

Common Opponents
================
There are nine common opponents, one of which Kansas has played twice,
plus the head-to-head in Lawrence, giving us eleven scores to compare:

KU   -4 ISU on road ( -1 neutral court)
OU   +8 ISU at home ( +5 neutral court)
KU   -9 OU  on road ( -6 neutral court)

KU   +2 TCU at home ( -1 neutral court)
OU   -9 TCU on road ( -6 neutral court)
KU   +2 OU  on road ( +5 neutral court)

KU   -6 WVU on road ( -3 neutral court)
OU  +14 WVU at home (+11 neutral court)
KU  -17 OU  on road (-14 neutral court)

KU   +5 UC  at home ( +2 neutral court)
OU   +4 UC  on road ( +7 neutral court)
KU   -8 OU  on road ( -5 neutral court)

KU  -29 TTU on road (-26 neutral court)
OU   -1 TTU at home ( -4 neutral court)
KU  -25 OU  on road (-22 neutral court)

KU   -5 KSU on road ( -2 neutral court)
OU  +20 KSU on road (+23 neutral court)
KU  -28 OU  on road (-25 neutral court)

KU   -5 UCF on road ( -2 neutral court)
OU  -11 UCF on road ( -8 neutral court)
KU   +3 OU  on road ( +6 neutral court)

KU  +29 OSU at home (+26 neutral court)     KU  +24 OSU on road (+27 neutral court)
OU   +4 OSU at home ( +1 neutral court)     OU   +4 OSU at home ( +1 neutral court)
KU  +22 OU  on road (+25 neutral court)     KU  +23 OU  on road (+26 neutral court)

KU   +3 BU  at home (  0 neutral court)
OU  -17 BU  on road (-14 neutral court)
KU  +11 OU  on road (+14 neutral court)

KU  +12 OU  at home ( +9 neutral court)
KU   +6 OU  on road ( +9 neutral court)

Six of the comparisons favor Kansas while the other five favor Oklahoma.  The
average is 1.82 points in favor of Oklahoma, with a scatter of 17.29 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Javian McMollum (guard)
most points        Javian McMollum (guard)
most rebounds      Jalon Moore (forward)
most assists       Milos Uzan (guard)
most steals        Otega Oweh (guard)
most blocks        Jalon Moore (forward)
most turnovers     Javian McMollum (guard)
most fouls         Sam Godwin (forward)

Reserve forward John Hugley has a sore knee; his status for today's game is
uncertain.  Reserve guard Rivaldo Soares injured his ankle in the previous
game; his status for today's game is also uncertain.

I might take these with a grain of salt, as it appears that Greenfield has a
serious bug in their database, based on the fact that the Kansas player with the
most minutes is Charlie McCarthy with 37.00, the Kansas player with the most
points is Charlie McCarthy with 34.00, and the Kansas player with the most steals
is Charlie McCarthy with 2.00.  "To err is humnan; to really screw up takes a
computer."

                                                          19-6           18-7
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Oklahoma
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +1.00   70   69       53       #  7   #  9    # 22   # 43
Pomeroy                 -1.86   71   72       43.0     # 20   #  8    # 31   # 72
Greenfield              +1.00   72   71                # 17   #  9    # 28   # 27
Dunkel                  -1.50   74   75                # 13           # 27
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +2.00   72.5 70.5                                      
Dolphin Predictive      -0.87   71   72       47.0     # 20   # 10    # 32   # 28
Real Time               -8.00   70   78       31.1     # 17   # 11    # 35   #102 
Seven Overtimes         -2.00   71   73       62       # 13   # 12    # 48   # 65
DPPI                    -2.10   71   73       44.5     # 11   # 13    # 15   # 26 
ESPN BPI                -1.30                 45.2     # 18   # 10    # 33   # 43
Whitlock                -1.64                          # 14   # 33    # 30   # 72
Colley Matrix           -0.23                          # 10   # 25    # 33   # 84
Donchess                -1.30   72   73       46.8     # 14   # 13    # 28   # 75
Haslametrics            -1.96   70   72                # 19           # 31
INCCStats               -1.00   71   72       47       # 18           # 31
common opponents        -1.82
NCAA NET                                               # 16           # 33
LRMC                                                   # 19   # 26    # 27   # 68
Massey composite                                       #  9           # 20
Pomeroy offense                                        # 43           # 55
Pomeroy defense                                        # 17           # 23
Pomeroy tempo                                          #110           #191
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 -1.35   71.3 72.5     46.6
scatter                  2.16    1.2  2.3      8.2

Here is Kansas' season, with a projected record of 22-9:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #263 North Carolina Central      99  56   +21.79   +21.21
HOME   #334 Manhattan                   99  61   +29.05    +8.95
NEUT   # 26 Kentucky                    89  84    +1.17    +3.83
Div2        Chaminade                   83  56
NEUT   # 11 Marquette                   59  73    -2.39   -11.61
NEUT   #  6 Tennessee                   69  60    -4.34   +13.34
HOME   #321 Eastern Illinois            71  63   +26.11   -18.11
HOME   #  3 Connecticut                 69  65    -2.40    +6.40
HOME   #249 UMKC                        88  69   +21.44    -2.44
HOME   #149 Missouri                    73  64   +15.99    -6.99
AWAY   # 98 Indiana                     75  71    +4.95    -0.95
HOME   # 83 Yale                        75  60   +10.18    +4.82
NEUT   #161 Wichita St.                 86  67   +14.01    +4.99
HOME   # 34 TCU                         83  81    +5.33    -3.33
AWAY   # 66 UCF                         60  65    +1.99    -6.99
HOME   # 31 Oklahoma                    78  66    +5.14    +6.86
AWAY   #121 Oklahoma St.                90  66    +6.97   +17.03
AWAY   #144 West Virginia               85  91    +9.15   -15.15
HOME   # 35 Cincinnati                  74  69    +5.62    -0.62
AWAY   #  9 Iowa St.                    75  79    -6.11    +2.11
HOME   #121 Oklahoma St.                83  54   +13.97   +15.03
HOME   #  1 Houston                     78  65    -4.09   +17.09
AWAY   # 73 Kansas St.                  70  75    +2.54    -7.54
HOME   # 13 Baylor                      64  61    +1.90    +1.10
AWAY   # 23 Texas Tech                  50  79    -2.83   -26.17
AWAY   # 31 Oklahoma                    71  72    -1.86             0.430
HOME   # 25 Texas                       75  71    +4.51             0.665
HOME   # 14 BYU                         77  75    +1.95             0.573
AWAY   # 13 Baylor                      71  76    -5.10             0.315
HOME   # 73 Kansas St.                  73  64    +9.54             0.816
AWAY   #  1 Houston                     60  71   -11.09             0.147

Here is Oklahoma's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #267 Central Michigan            89  59   +19.84   +10.16
HOME   #362 Mississippi Valley St.      82  43   +36.46    +2.54
HOME   #228 Texas St.                   93  54   +18.37   +20.63
HOME   #315 UT Rio Grande Valley        90  66   +25.53    -1.53
NEUT   # 59 Iowa                        79  67    +3.36    +8.64
NEUT   #103 USC                         72  70    +7.46    -5.46
HOME   #342 Arkansas Pine Bluff        107  86   +28.70    -7.70
HOME   # 53 Providence                  72  51    +6.02   +14.98
NEUT   #129 Arkansas                    79  70    +9.49    -0.49
HOME   #183 Green Bay                   81  47   +15.85   +18.15
NEUT   # 10 North Carolina              69  81    -4.07    -7.93
HOME   #340 Central Arkansas            88  72   +27.65   -11.65
HOME   #204 Monmouth                    72  56   +17.85    -1.85
HOME   #  9 Iowa St.                    71  63    -0.68    +8.68
AWAY   # 34 TCU                         71  80    -3.36    -5.64
AWAY   # 20 Kansas                      66  78    -5.14    -6.86
HOME   #144 West Virginia               77  63   +14.26    -0.26
AWAY   # 35 Cincinnati                  69  65    -3.03    +7.03
HOME   # 25 Texas                       60  75    +2.91   -17.91
HOME   # 23 Texas Tech                  84  85    +2.59    -3.59
AWAY   # 73 Kansas St.                  73  53    +0.82   +19.18
AWAY   # 66 UCF                         63  74    +0.25   -11.25
HOME   # 14 BYU                         82  66    +0.33   +15.67
HOME   #121 Oklahoma St.                66  62   +12.14    -8.14
AWAY   # 13 Baylor                      62  79    -6.63   -10.37
HOME   # 20 Kansas                      72  71    +1.86             0.570
AWAY   #121 Oklahoma St.                72  67    +5.14             0.687
AWAY   #  9 Iowa St.                    65  73    -7.68             0.234
HOME   #  1 Houston                     61  67    -5.43             0.304
HOME   # 35 Cincinnati                  71  67    +3.97             0.646
AWAY   # 25 Texas                       69  73    -4.09             0.349