Big 12 projection, Round 12

                      Init   Rd 1   Rd 2   Rd 3   Rd 4   Rd 5   Rd 6   Rd 7   Rd 8   Rd 9 
                      Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj 
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins 
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
#  1  Houston        14.753 14.923 13.906 13.102 13.291 13.395 13.891 14.032 14.157 13.223
#  8  Iowa State     10.283  9.500 10.640 11.064 10.363 11.068 11.222 11.568 11.539 11.155
# 13  Baylor         10.930 11.363 11.925 11.971 11.226 10.485 10.535  9.608 10.046 10.482
# 22  Texas Tech      8.828 10.113 10.523 10.532 10.116 10.926 10.955 11.724 11.279 10.376
# 14  BYU            13.331 11.595 10.811 11.086 11.754 10.996 10.537 10.883 10.865 11.066
# 19  Kansas         11.129 11.165  9.953 10.509 11.149  9.975 10.129  9.899 10.141 11.123
# 34  TCU             8.897  8.838  9.434 10.428 10.101  9.485  9.699 10.539 10.935  9.956
# 30  Oklahoma        9.775 10.625 10.049  9.582  9.673 10.451  9.153  8.438  9.338  8.485
# 26  Texas           8.957  7.615  8.460  7.481  6.422  7.099  8.313  8.013  7.835  8.802
# 36  Cincinnati      8.497  9.970  9.053  8.992  9.415  8.605  8.372  8.680  7.848  8.699
# 69  Kansas State    6.225  7.348  8.108  7.872  8.624  8.740  8.583  8.349  7.542  6.881
# 64  UCF             5.855  4.785  5.635  5.777  6.960  6.883  7.267  6.935  6.465  7.319
#142  West Virginia   3.680  3.467  2.787  3.626  3.496  4.655  4.376  4.040  4.923  4.778
#121  Oklahoma State  4.861  4.635  4.385  3.978  3.409  3.237  2.968  3.292  3.086  3.656

                      Rd 10  Rd 11  Rd 12
                      Proj   Proj   Proj   Conf.             Pred.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Recrd  Next Game  Score
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------  -----  ---------  -----
#  1  Houston        13.167 13.469 13.495   8  3   UT   Sat  71-59
#  8  Iowa State     11.780 12.143 12.688   8  3   TTU  Sat  74-67
# 13  Baylor         10.774 10.471 10.937   7  4  @WVU  Sat  78-68  road win
# 22  Texas Tech     10.130 10.375 10.873   7  4  @ISU  Sat  67-74
# 14  BYU            10.308 10.396 10.497   6  5  @OSU  Sat  78-69  road win
# 19  Kansas         10.347 10.683  9.932   7  5  @OU   Sat  70-72
# 34  TCU             9.970  9.722  9.777   6  5  @KSU  Sat  71-70  road win
# 30  Oklahoma        9.244  9.193  8.802   6  6   KU   Sat  72-70
# 26  Texas           8.185  8.413  8.431   5  6  @UH   Sat  59-71
# 36  Cincinnati      8.651  8.364  7.830   4  7  @UCF  Sat  67-67
# 69  Kansas State    7.698  7.564  7.630   5  6   TCU  Sat  70-71
# 64  UCF             7.299  7.063  6.950   4  7   UC   Sat  67-67
#142  West Virginia   4.780  4.520  4.312   3  8   BU   Sat  68-78
#121  Oklahoma State  3.667  3.625  3.574   2  9   BYU  Sat  69-78

Dolphin took honors for best prognostications in Round 12, his first win of the season,
with Colley a close second.  Dunkel came in last again.  Vegas retains the season lead,
with Dunkel still pulling up the rear.

Just one road win was projected for Round 12, and it was the only one that happened.
Three road wins are projected for Round 13, with Baylor expected to win in Morgantown,
BYU expected to win in Stillwater, and TCU expected to win in Manhattan, though just
barely.  Kansas desperately needs a road win in Norman, and it is within the realm of
possibility, but when will we know if McCullar will play, or if McDowell has recovered
from the flu, or if Harris' rolled ankle has healed?

Road wins (24 out of  78)                    Home losses                                   RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
3 Houston        BYU UT  UC                  0 Houston                                    +3 UH
3 Iowa State     TCU UT  UC                  0 Iowa State                                 +3 ISU
3 Texas          UC  OU  TCU                 0 Kansas                                     +1 BU
2 Baylor         OSU UCF                     1 Baylor         TCU                         +1 KU
2 BYU            UCF WVU                     1 Kansas State   OU                          +1 TTU
2 Cincinnati     BYU TTU                     1 Texas Tech     UC                           0 BYU
2 Oklahoma       UC  KSU                     2 BYU            UC  UH                       0 KSU
2 TCU            OSU BU                      2 Oklahoma       UT  TTU                      0 OU
2 Texas Tech     UT  OU                      2 TCU            ISU UT                       0 TCU
1 Kansas         OSU                         2 UCF            BYU BU                      -1 UCF
1 Kansas State   WVU                         2 West Virginia  KSU BYU                     -1 UT
1 UCF            UT                          3 Oklahoma State BU  KU  TCU                 -2 UC
0 Oklahoma State                             4 Cincinnati     UT  OU  UH  ISU             -2 WVU 
0 West Virginia                              4 Texas          TTU UCF UH  ISU             -3 OSU

It has occurred to me that the inconsistency value can be somehwat misleading,
because it depends on how many total points you score.  To use an extrene
example, a soccer team that scores 1 or 2 or 3 goals per game isn't going to
have an inconsistency of 10 points!  Take two teams with identical inconsistencies,
the one that score fewer total points will have a smaller inconsistency value.  That
is exemplified by Houston in the Big 12.  So, as an experiment, I have normalized
the inconistency values to a total score average of 150 points per game, and that
is shown in the second column, which is the column I have sorted on this time around.
TCU remains the most consistent team in the Big 12.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    -----------------------------
BYU             +3.81    TCU               7.56   7.43
Iowa State      +3.67    Oklahoma State    8.05   8.58
Houston         +3.20    West Virginia     8.99   9.50
Baylor          +2.42    Houston           8.52   9.96
Cincinnati      +1.54    Cincinnati        9.51  10.01
UCF             +1.46    Baylor           10.66  10.50
TCU             +1.45    Texas            10.33  10.71
Oklahoma        +1.03    Texas Tech       10.58  11.01
Kansas          +0.96    Oklahoma         11.01  11.53
Texas           +0.49    BYU              12.05  11.97
Texas Tech      +0.48    Kansas           11.78  12.17
Kansas State    +0.25    Iowa State       11.45  12.22
Oklahoma State  -0.10    Kansas State     11.80  12.57
West Virginia   -1.40    UCF              11.58  12.58

Amazing what one really bad game can do to your mental toughness rating.
Kansas was on top; not anymore.

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Texas Tech      +0.42 +/- 0.31    Kansas State    +0.07 +/- 0.25
Texas           +0.33 +/- 0.30    Oklahoma        -0.05 +/- 0.19
UCF             +0.21 +/- 0.37    West Virginia   -0.05 +/- 0.23
Kansas State    +0.11 +/- 0.36    Kansas          -0.07 +/- 0.25
West Virginia   +0.03 +/- 0.27    Cincinnati      -0.10 +/- 0.20
Oklahoma State  -0.02 +/- 0.24    Texas           -0.11 +/- 0.19
TCU             -0.16 +/- 0.23    TCU             -0.11 +/- 0.12
Cincinnati      -0.26 +/- 0.28    Texas Tech      -0.11 +/- 0.23
Kansas          -0.30 +/- 0.35    UCF             -0.18 +/- 0.22
Baylor          -0.32 +/- 0.34    Oklahoma State  -0.19 +/- 0.14
Oklahoma        -0.44 +/- 0.30    Iowa State      -0.52 +/- 0.17
Iowa State      -0.50 +/- 0.33    Houston         -0.59 +/- 0.14
Houston         -0.55 +/- 0.23    Baylor          -0.64 +/- 0.17
BYU             -0.99 +/- 0.30    BYU             -0.64 +/- 0.19

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
BYU             82.72   Houston         55.15   TCU             152.67   Houston         +18.00
Baylor          81.39   Iowa State      62.51   Baylor          152.26   Iowa State      +15.56
TCU             81.35   UCF             66.66   BYU             151.00   BYU             +14.44
Iowa State      78.07   Oklahoma        67.23   Kansas          145.25   Baylor          +10.52
Kansas          76.31   Cincinnati      67.53   Texas           144.62   TCU             +10.04
Texas           76.18   Texas Tech      68.25   Texas Tech      144.08   Oklahoma         +8.82
Oklahoma        76.05   BYU             68.28   Oklahoma        143.28   Texas            +7.73
Texas Tech      75.83   Texas           68.45   Cincinnati      142.46   Texas Tech       +7.58
Cincinnati      74.93   Kansas          68.94   West Virginia   141.96   Cincinnati       +7.40
Houston         73.15   Kansas State    69.31   Kansas State    140.79   Kansas           +7.38
Kansas State    71.48   Baylor          70.87   Oklahoma State  140.71   UCF              +4.80
UCF             71.47   Oklahoma State  70.89   Iowa State      140.58   Kansas State     +2.17
Oklahoma State  69.82   TCU             71.31   UCF             138.13   Oklahoma State   -1.06
West Virginia   67.26   West Virginia   74.70   Houston         128.29   West Virginia    -7.44

Kansas is back on top, as expected, and ought to remain there after this weekend's
action, as the Jayhawks remain on the road, and although Baylor also goes on the
road, they're in Morgantown, a much weaker opponent than what the Jayhawks will face.

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas         +10.44 (  8)
Baylor         +10.09 ( 11)
West Virginia   +9.55 ( 18)
Kansas State    +7.65 ( 35)
Houston         +6.94 ( 50)
Cincinnati      +6.49 ( 60)
Texas Tech      +6.34 ( 62)
Texas           +6.30 ( 64)
UCF             +6.28 ( 66)
Oklahoma        +6.10 ( 69)
BYU             +5.83 ( 72)
Iowa State      +5.83 ( 73)
Oklahoma State  +5.20 ( 77)
TCU             +5.11 ( 80)