predictions for Texas Tech game

Did I say to expect the Baylor game to total around 150 points?  It was
125 points!  Then again, at the time I posted that message, I was unaware
that McCullough (call me Fran Frschilla) would not play, nor was I aware
that Love would not play.  Take out two of the more prolific scorers and
it's no surprise that the total fell short of expectations.  But hey, it
was a win, a crucial win.

Today's game is a toss-up.  Some are picking Kansas, some are picking
Texas Tech.  The Vegas line moved from 2.5 points in favor of Tech to
3.5 points in favor of Tech, perhaps after hearing that McCullough would
not play again.  Apparently McDowall is still out as well.  As for Harris,
despite rolled ankles often feeling worse the day after the injury, and
the day after that, the word is that he will play.  I hope he's not
hobbled, but a hobbled Harris might still be better than Jackson.

I'm on travel with a screwed up sleep schedule, so I'll keep this short.
I've tabulated sixteen predictions; eight pick Kansas, and eight pick
Tech.  The average favors Tech by a half point.  Can you say overtime?
Kansas desperately needs a road win.  Can they get it in Lubbock?

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      TTU     KU      Defensive Stats      TTU     KU
Points/Game         76.3    77.9     Opp Points/Game     68.4    68.0
Avg Score Margin    +7.9    +9.9     Opp Effective FG %  49.2    46.4
Assists/Game        15.0    19.9     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.7     7.3
Total Rebounds/Gm   34.8    36.2     Def Rebounds/Gm     22.7    26.0
Effective FG %      53.6    55.7     Blocks/Game          2.9     4.0
Off Rebound %       29.1    25.1     Steals/Game          5.9     7.7
FTA/FGA            0.332   0.317     Personal Fouls/Gm   14.1    14.7
Turnover %          13.9    14.7   

My Stats Comparison        KU             TTU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.80           +0.66    
inconsistency         10.56            9.28    
trend                 -0.03 ± 0.34    +0.17 ± 0.30
mental toughness      +0.06 ± 0.23    -0.18 ± 0.20         
average total pts      145.96         144.74

Common Opponents
================
There are eight common opponents, all in conference, one of which Kansas have played
twice, giving us nine scores to compare:

KU  +29 OSU at home (+26 neutral court)     KU  +24 OSU on road (+27 neutral court)
TTU +17 OSU at home (+14 neutral court)     TTU +17 OSU at home (+14 neutral court)
KU   +9 TTU on road (+12 neutral court)     KU  +10 TTU on road (+13 neutral court)

KU   -5 KSU on road ( -2 neutral court)
TTU  +1 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
KU   -3 TTU on road (  0 neutral court)

KU  +13 UH  at home (+10 neutral court)
TTU -23 UH  on road (-20 neutral court)
KU  +27 TTU on road (+30 neutral court)

KU  +12 OU  at home ( +9 neutral court)
TTU  +1 OU  on road ( +4 neutral court)
KU   +2 TTU on road ( +5 neutral court)

KU   +2 TCU at home ( -1 neutral court)
TTU  -7 TCU on road ( -4 neutral court)
KU    0 TTU on road ( +3 neutral court)

KU   +5 UC  at home ( +2 neutral court)
TTU  -3 UC  at home ( -6 neutral court)
KU   +5 TTU on road ( +8 neutral court)

KU   +3 BU  at home (  0 neutral court)
TTU  -6 BU  on road ( -3 neutral court)
KU    0 TTU on road ( +3 neutral court)

KU   -5 UCF on road ( -2 neutral court)
TTU  +7 UCF at home ( +4 neutral court)
KU   -9 TTU on orad ( -6 neutral court)

Five of the comparisons favor Kansas, two favor Texas Tech, and the other
two are a wash.  The average is 4.55 points in favor of Kansas, with a scatter of 10.26 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       
most points        
most rebounds      
most assists       
most steals        
most blocks        
most turnovers     
most fouls         

I've been unable to populate this field, because Grenfield's web site is giving
me the spinning daisy petals effect, on and on and on...

Reserve forward Devan Cambridge is out for the season with a knee injury.

I might take these with a grain of salt, as it appears that Greenfield has a
serious bug in their database, based on the fact that the Kansas player with the
most minutes is Charlie McCarthy with 37.00, the Kansas player with the most
points is Charlie McCarthy with 34.00, and the Kansas player with the most steals
is Charlie McCarthy with 2.00.  "To err is humnan; to really screw up takes a
computer."

                                                          19-5           17-6
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Texas Tech
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +1.00   72   71       53       #  5   # 12    # 19   # 42
Pomeroy                 -0.23   73   74       49.1     # 14   # 14    # 38   # 66
Greenfield              -3.50   70   74                # 13   # 11    # 32   # 34
Dunkel                  -5.50   68   73                # 10           # 28
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -3.50   71   73                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +0.17   73   73       50.6     # 13   # 11    # 30   # 33
Real Time               -7.00   71   78       33.4     # 12   # 14    # 37   #138 
Seven Overtimes         +3.00   74   71       58       #  6   # 15    # 81   # 37
DPPI                    -0.40   72   73       48.8     # 12   #  9    # 36   # 47 
ESPN BPI                -0.00                 49.9     # 14   # 15    # 16   # 23
Whitlock                -0.98                          # 14   # 33    # 36   # 53
Colley Matrix           +0.42                          #  8   # 28    # 29   # 83
Donchess                +1.90   73   71       54.7     #  9   # 14    # 40   # 60
Haslametrics            +0.12   74   74                # 14           # 37
INCCStats               +2.00   75   73       55       # 10           # 36
common opponents        +4.55
NCAA NET                                               # 12           # 38
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       #  9           # 35
Pomeroy offense                                        # 32           # 13
Pomeroy defense                                        # 14           # 88
Pomeroy tempo                                          #106           #273
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 -0.50   72.2 73.2     50.3
scatter                  3.05    2.0  1.9      7.1

Here is Kansas' season, with a projected record of 23-8:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #262 North Carolina Central      99  56   +23.00   +20.00
HOME   #335 Manhattan                   99  61   +30.60    +7.40
NEUT   # 27 Kentucky                    89  84    +2.64    +2.36
Div2        Chaminade                   83  56
NEUT   # 10 Marquette                   59  73    -0.91   -13.09
NEUT   #  7 Tennessee                   69  60    -2.44   +11.44
HOME   #324 Eastern Illinois            71  63   +27.68   -19.68
HOME   #  3 Connecticut                 69  65    -1.01    +5.01
HOME   #255 UMKC                        88  69   +22.83    -3.83
HOME   #144 Missouri                    73  64   +17.20    -8.20
AWAY   # 96 Indiana                     75  71    +6.26    -2.26
HOME   # 88 Yale                        75  60   +11.89    +3.11
NEUT   #156 Wichita St.                 86  67   +14.69    +4.31
HOME   # 36 TCU                         83  81    +6.73    -4.73
AWAY   # 65 UCF                         60  65    +3.54    -8.54
HOME   # 24 Oklahoma                    78  66    +5.70    +6.30
AWAY   #118 Oklahoma St.                90  66    +8.11   +15.89
AWAY   #140 West Virginia               85  91   +10.22   -16.22
HOME   # 32 Cincinnati                  74  69    +6.50    -1.50
AWAY   #  9 Iowa St.                    75  79    -4.46    +0.46
HOME   #118 Oklahoma St.                83  54   +15.11   +13.89
HOME   #  1 Houston                     78  65    -2.92   +15.92
AWAY   # 68 Kansas St.                  70  75    +3.75    -8.75
HOME   # 15 Baylor                      64  61    +3.90    -0.90
AWAY   # 38 Texas Tech                  73  74    -0.23             0.491
AWAY   # 24 Oklahoma                    71  72    -1.30             0.451
HOME   # 25 Texas                       76  70    +5.92             0.712
HOME   # 12 BYU                         77  74    +2.94             0.609
AWAY   # 15 Baylor                      73  76    -3.10             0.385
HOME   # 68 Kansas St.                  74  63   +10.75             0.845
AWAY   #  1 Houston                     61  71    -9.92             0.174

Here is Texas Tech's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #326 Texas A&M Commerce          73  46   +23.63    +3.37
HOME   #225 San Jose St.                56  42   +17.36    -3.36
HOME   #194 Texas A&M Corpus Chris      73  64   +16.68    -7.68
NEUT   # 34 Villanova                   69  85    -0.19   -15.81
NEUT   #133 Northern Iowa               72  70    +8.80    -6.80
NEUT   #103 Michigan                    73  57    +6.38    +9.62
AWAY   # 49 Butler                      95 103    -2.04    -5.96
HOME   #231 Nebraska Omaha              87  58   +17.93   +11.07
HOME   #234 Oral Roberts                82  76   +18.09   -12.09
NEUT   #213 Vanderbilt                  76  54   +13.19    +8.81
HOME   #149 UT Arlington                77  66   +14.52    -3.52
HOME   #185 Sam Houston St.             96  60   +16.00   +20.00
HOME   #239 North Alabama               85  57   +18.37    +9.63
AWAY   # 25 Texas                       78  67    -4.34   +15.34
HOME   #118 Oklahoma St.                90  73   +11.40    +5.60
HOME   # 68 Kansas St.                  60  59    +7.26    -6.26
AWAY   #  1 Houston                     54  77   -12.62   -10.38
HOME   # 12 BYU                         85  78    -0.31    +7.31
AWAY   # 24 Oklahoma                    85  84    -4.62    +5.62
AWAY   # 36 TCU                         78  85    -3.70    -3.30
HOME   # 32 Cincinnati                  72  75    +3.17    -6.17
AWAY   # 15 Baylor                      73  79    -6.25    +0.25
HOME   # 65 UCF                         66  59    +7.00    +0.00
HOME   # 14 Kansas                      74  73    +0.23             0.509
AWAY   #  9 Iowa St.                    67  75    -7.64             0.235
HOME   # 36 TCU                         78  74    +3.30             0.622
AWAY   # 65 UCF                         69  69    -0.00             0.500
HOME   # 25 Texas                       74  72    +2.66             0.599
AWAY   #140 West Virginia               76  69    +6.38             0.727
AWAY   #118 Oklahoma St.                73  69    +4.40             0.661
HOME   # 15 Baylor                      74  73    +0.75             0.528