Big 12 projection, round 11

                      Init   Rd 1   Rd 2   Rd 3   Rd 4   Rd 5   Rd 6   Rd 7   Rd 8   Rd 9 
                      Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj 
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins 
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
#  1  Houston        14.753 14.923 13.906 13.102 13.291 13.395 13.891 14.032 14.157 13.223
#  9  Iowa State     10.283  9.500 10.640 11.064 10.363 11.068 11.222 11.568 11.539 11.155
# 14  Kansas         11.129 11.165  9.953 10.509 11.149  9.975 10.129  9.899 10.141 11.123
# 15  Baylor         10.930 11.363 11.925 11.971 11.226 10.485 10.535  9.608 10.046 10.482
# 12  BYU            13.331 11.595 10.811 11.086 11.754 10.996 10.537 10.883 10.865 11.066
# 37  Texas Tech      8.828 10.113 10.523 10.532 10.116 10.926 10.955 11.724 11.279 10.376
# 35  TCU             8.897  8.838  9.434 10.428 10.101  9.485  9.699 10.539 10.935  9.956
# 24  Oklahoma        9.775 10.625 10.049  9.582  9.673 10.451  9.153  8.438  9.338  8.485
# 25  Texas           8.957  7.615  8.460  7.481  6.422  7.099  8.313  8.013  7.835  8.802
# 32  Cincinnati      8.497  9.970  9.053  8.992  9.415  8.605  8.372  8.680  7.848  8.699
# 69  Kansas State    6.225  7.348  8.108  7.872  8.624  8.740  8.583  8.349  7.542  6.881
# 66  UCF             5.855  4.785  5.635  5.777  6.960  6.883  7.267  6.935  6.465  7.319
#140  West Virginia   3.680  3.467  2.787  3.626  3.496  4.655  4.376  4.040  4.923  4.778
#118  Oklahoma State  4.861  4.635  4.385  3.978  3.409  3.237  2.968  3.292  3.086  3.656

                      Rd 10  Rd 11
                      Proj   Proj   Conf.             Pred.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Recrd  Next Game  Score
----  -------------- ------ ------  -----  ---------  -----
#  1  Houston        13.167 13.469   8  3   bye
#  9  Iowa State     11.780 12.143   7  3  @UC   Tue  69-68
# 14  Kansas         10.347 10.683   7  4  @TTU  Mon  73-74
# 15  Baylor         10.774 10.471   6  4   OU   Tue  75-69
# 12  BYU            10.308 10.396   5  5   UCF  Tue  76-65
# 37  Texas Tech     10.130 10.375   6  4   KU   Mon  74-73
# 35  TCU             9.970  9.722   5  5   WVU  Mon  82-68
# 24  Oklahoma        9.244  9.193   6  5  @BU   Tue  69-75
# 25  Texas           8.185  8.413   5  6   bye
# 32  Cincinnati      8.651  8.364   4  6   ISU  Tue  68-69
# 69  Kansas State    7.698  7.564   5  6   bye
# 66  UCF             7.299  7.063   4  6  @BYU  Tue  65-76
#140  West Virginia   4.780  4.520   3  7  @TCU  Mon  68-82
#118  Oklahoma State  3.667  3.625   2  9   bye

Massey took honors for best prognostications in Round 11, his second win of the season.
Dunkel came in last again by a wide margin.  Vegas retains the season lead, with Dunkel
still pulling up the rear.

Just one road win was projected for Round 11, and it was the only one that happened.
Just one road win is projected for Round 12, with Iowa State expected to win at Cincinnati,
though by only a point.

Road wins (23 out of  73)                    Home losses                                   RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
3 Houston        BYU UT  UC                  0 Houston                                    +3 UH
3 Texas          UC  OU  TCU                 0 Iowa State                                 +2 ISU
2 Baylor         OSU UCF                     0 Kansas                                     +1 BU
2 BYU            UCF WVU                     1 Baylor         TCU                         +1 KU
2 Cincinnati     BYU TTU                     1 Kansas State   OU                          +1 TTU
2 Iowa State     TCU UT                      1 Texas Tech     UC                           0 BYU
2 Oklahoma       UC  KSU                     2 BYU            UC  UH                       0 KSU
2 TCU            OSU BU                      2 Oklahoma       UT  TTU                      0 OU
2 Texas Tech     UT  OU                      2 TCU            ISU UT                       0 TCU
1 Kansas         OSU                         2 UCF            BYU BU                      -1 UC
1 Kansas State   WVU                         2 West Virginia  KSU BYU                     -1 UCF
1 UCF            UT                          3 Cincinnati     UT  OU  UH                  -1 UT
0 Oklahoma State                             3 Oklahoma State BU  KU  TCU                 -2 WVU 
0 West Virginia                              4 Texas          TTU UCF UH  ISU             -3 OSU

It has occurred to me that the inconsistency value can be somehwat misleading,
because it depends on how mnay total points you score.  To use an extrene
example, a soccer team that scores 1 or 2 or 3 goals per game isn't going to
have an inconsistency of 10 points!  Take two teams with identical inconsistencies,
the one that score fewer total points will have a smaller inconsistency value.  That
is exemplified by Houston in the Big 12.  So, as an experiment, I have normalized
the inconistency values to a total score average of 150 points per game, and that
is shown in the second column, which is the column I have sorted on this time around.
TCU is the most consistent team in the Big 12, while Houston is pretty average.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    -----------------------------
Iowa State      +4.09    TCU               7.74   7.59
BYU             +4.04    Oklahoma State    7.95   8.47
Houston         +3.27    Cincinnati        9.49   9.45
Baylor          +2.66    Texas Tech        9.34   9.68
Cincinnati      +1.61    Houston           8.35   9.76
TCU             +1.60    West Virginia     9.42   9.97
UCF             +1.55    Baylor           10.78  10.58
Oklahoma        +0.93    Texas            10.45  10.84
Kansas          +0.76    Kansas           10.57  10.86
Texas Tech      +0.66    Oklahoma         10.95  11.46
Texas           +0.56    BYU              12.09  12.10
Kansas State    +0.35    Iowa State       11.72  12.45
Oklahoma State  -0.13    Kansas State     11.71  12.48
West Virginia   -1.51    UCF              11.83  13.02

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Texas           +0.32 +/- 0.31    Kansas          +0.06 +/- 0.23
Texas Tech      +0.17 +/- 0.30    Kansas State    +0.05 +/- 0.25
UCF             +0.14 +/- 0.41    Oklahoma         0.00 +/- 0.20
Kansas State    +0.13 +/- 0.35    West Virginia   -0.01 +/- 0.25
West Virginia   +0.04 +/- 0.30    Cincinnati      -0.07 +/- 0.20
Oklahoma State  -0.02 +/- 0.24    Texas           -0.11 +/- 0.20
Kansas          -0.03 +/- 0.34    TCU             -0.12 +/- 0.13
Cincinnati      -0.19 +/- 0.30    Texas Tech      -0.18 +/- 0.20
TCU             -0.21 +/- 0.24    Oklahoma State  -0.21 +/- 0.14
Oklahoma        -0.38 +/- 0.32    UCF             -0.25 +/- 0.23
Baylor          -0.48 +/- 0.36    Iowa State      -0.56 +/- 0.18
Houston         -0.54 +/- 0.22    Houston         -0.59 +/- 0.14
Iowa State      -0.62 +/- 0.35    Baylor          -0.64 +/- 0.17
BYU             -0.99 +/- 0.32    BYU             -0.68 +/- 0.19

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
BYU             82.48   Houston         55.15   TCU             152.96   Houston         +18.00
Baylor          81.58   Iowa State      62.74   Baylor          152.77   Iowa State      +15.70
TCU             81.45   UCF             65.68   BYU             149.83   BYU             +15.13
Iowa State      78.43   Oklahoma        66.81   Kansas          145.96   Baylor          +10.39
Kansas          77.38   BYU             67.35   Texas Tech      144.74   TCU              +9.93
Oklahoma        76.56   Cincinnati      67.43   Texas           144.62   Oklahoma         +9.75
Texas           76.18   Texas           68.45   Oklahoma        143.38   Kansas           +8.80
Texas Tech      75.77   Kansas          68.58   Cincinnati      143.13   Cincinnati       +8.26
Cincinnati      75.70   Texas Tech      68.97   West Virginia   141.78   Texas            +7.73
Houston         73.15   Kansas State    69.31   Iowa State      141.17   Texas Tech       +6.80
Kansas State    71.48   Oklahoma State  70.89   Kansas State    140.79   UCF              +4.95
UCF             70.64   Baylor          71.19   Oklahoma State  140.71   Kansas State     +2.17
Oklahoma State  69.82   TCU             71.51   UCF             136.32   Oklahoma State   -1.06
West Virginia   67.28   West Virginia   74.50   Houston         128.29   West Virginia    -7.22

Baylor, by virtue of playing on the road, takes the top spot in strength
of schedule, but temporarily.  After Kansas plays at Lubbock and Baylor
gets a home game with Oklahoma, Kansas will be back on top.

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Baylor          +9.90 ( 10)
Kansas          +9.75 ( 13)
West Virginia   +9.06 ( 22)
Kansas State    +7.56 ( 37)
Houston         +6.83 ( 47)
Texas           +6.10 ( 63)
Texas Tech      +5.74 ( 66)
Cincinnati      +5.68 ( 67)
TCU             +5.56 ( 69)
BYU             +5.53 ( 70)
Oklahoma State  +5.26 ( 75)
UCF             +5.20 ( 76)
Oklahoma        +5.07 ( 78)
Iowa State      +5.05 ( 79)