predictions for Baylor game

Theoretically, Kansas could win out and finish the conference season with
a 14-4 record, which ought to be good enough to win the championship.
Statistically, that is unlikely, but still within the realm of possibility.
Given that Houston is projected to win the conference with a 13-5 record,
Kansas could afford to lose just one more game and still potentially tie
for the conference championship.  If you had to choose that one more loss,
you wouldn't want it to be at home.  So it's pretty safe to call today's
game a must-win for Kansas to have any reasonable hope of a conference
championship.  Sure, Houston could falter, and Kansas has a say in that
possibility, but we're also looking up at Iowa State, who is poised to
finish 12-6, and there's nothing Kansas can do to hang an unexpected loss
on the Cyclones.  So two more losses seems to be the ceiling for Kansas to
have any hope of winning the conference.  With four more road games to play,
including a return game with Baylor in Waco, again, you surely don't want to
lose at home, so I'll stick with calling today's game a must-win.

In contrast to last week's defensive powerhouse in Houston, today we get
an offensive juggernaut.  Baylor has the fourth-highest offensive efficiency
according to Pomeroy, behind only Purdue, Alabama, and (drum roll, please)
Connecticut.  Kansas has beaten Connecticut, so the Jayhawks know what it
will take to pull off the win.

All the usual prognosticators are picking Kansas.  Dunkel is the most
optimistic, picking Kansas to win by 11, while Dolphin is the pessimist,
giving Kansas a mere 3.25 point margin.  The average is 6.0 points, with
a scatter of 2.3 points.  Basically we're looking at a two-possession
game, and total points up around 150.

Baylor has played all their conference games within 10 points of
expectation, significantly more consistent than in their non-conference
slate, which featured three two-sigma events.  Baylor has a negative
trend with some statistical significance to it, as well as a negative
mental toughness rating, with strong statistical significance, meaning
the Bears don't play as well against the tougher opponents.  Kansas
qualifies as a tougher opponent.  Expect Baylor to play about 8 points
below expectation.  Kansas is essentially flat in both, so what you see
is what you get.

College Gameday is in town; I have no records about how well Kansas plays
when the show comes to Lawrence.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      BU      KU      Defensive Stats      BU      KU
Points/Game         83.1    78.5     Opp Points/Game     71.0    68.4
Avg Score Margin   +12.2   +10.2     Opp Effective FG %  50.6    46.3
Assists/Game        15.5    20.3     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.2     7.4
Total Rebounds/Gm   35.3    36.7     Def Rebounds/Gm     22.0    26.4
Effective FG %      56.4    56.0     Blocks/Game          3.4     4.1
Off Rebound %       34.6    25.8     Steals/Game          6.3     7.3
FTA/FGA            0.397   0.319     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.1    14.7
Turnover %          14.5    14.9   

My Stats Comparison        KU             BU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.80           +2.69    
inconsistency         10.79           11.07    
trend                 -0.02 ± 0.37    -0.54 ± 0.39
mental toughness      +0.07 ± 0.24    -0.67 ± 0.18         
average total pts      146.91         154.10

Common Opponents
================
There are seven common opponents, six in conference and Kansas City, one of
which Kansas have played twice, giving us eight scores to compare:

KU  +19 KC  at home (+16 neutral court)
BU  +38 KC  at home (+35 neutral court)
KU  -16 BU  at home (-19 neutral court)

KU  +24 OSU on road (+27 neutral court)     KU  +29 OSU at home (+26 neutral court)
BU   +5 OSU on road ( +8 neutral court)     BU   +5 OSU on road ( +8 neutral court)
KU  +22 BU  at home (+19 neutral court)     KU  +21 BU  at home (+18 neutral court)

KU   +5 UC  at home ( +2 neutral court)
BU   +3 UC  at home (  0 neutral court)
KU   +5 BU  at home ( +2 neutral court)

KU   -5 KSU on road ( -2 neutral court)
BU   -4 KSU on road ( -1 neutral court)
KU   +2 BU  at home ( -1 neutral court)

KU   +2 TCU at home ( -1 neutral court)
BU   -3 TCU at home ( -6 neutral court)
KU   +8 BU  at home ( +5 neutral court)

KU   -5 UCF on road ( -2 neutral court)
BU   +8 UCF on road (+11 neutral court)
KU  -10 BU  at home (-13 neutral court)

KU   -4 ISU on road ( -1 neutral court)
BU   +2 ISU at home ( -1 neutral court)
KU   +3 BU  at home (  0 neutral court)

Two of the comparisons favor Baylor while the other six favor Kansas.  The
Kansas City comparison is fairly lopsided in favoring Baylor, while the
Oklahoma State comparison is fairly lopsided in favoring Kansas, and twice.
The average is 4.38 points in favor of Kansas, with a scatter of 13.26 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Rayj Dennis (guard)
most points        Ja'Kobe Walter (guard)
most rebounds      Yves Missi (center)
most assists       Rayj Dennis (guard)
most steals        Rayj Dennis (guard)
most blocks        Yves Missi (center)
most turnovers     Rayj Dennis (guard)
most fouls         Josh Ojianwuna (forward)

Reserve forward Yanis Ndjonga is out for the season with a torn ACL.

I might take these with a grain of salt, as it appears that Greenfield has a
serious bug in their database, based on the fact that the Kansas player with the
most minutes is Charlie McCarthy with 37.00, the Kansas player with the most
points is Charlie McCarthy with 34.00, and the Kansas player with the most steals
is Charlie McCarthy with 2.00.  "To err is humnan; to really screw up takes a
computer."

                                                          18-5           17-5
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Baylor
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +4.00   77   73       62       #  6   #  9    # 11   # 28
Pomeroy                 +4.10   78   74       65.1     # 13   # 13    # 16   # 21
Greenfield              +8.00   78   70                # 13   #  9    # 16   # 15
Dunkel                 +11.00   82   71                # 11           # 16
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +8.00   78   70                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +3.25   77   74       60.9     # 13   # 12    # 14   # 10
Real Time               +9.00   80   71       70.6     # 15   # 14    # 25   # 28 
Seven Overtimes         +9.00   80   71       69       #  7   # 19    # 19   # 46
DPPI                    +4.70   78   73       64.2     # 11   # 13    # 15   # 26 
ESPN BPI                +4.50                 67.0     # 14   # 15    # 16   # 23
Whitlock                +4.77                          # 14   # 37    # 21   # 49
Colley Matrix           +6.25                          #  8   # 28    # 23   # 38
Donchess                +6.20   78.5 72       71.1     #  9   # 17    # 13   # 33
Haslametrics            +5.23   76   71                # 13           # 22
INCCStats               +4.00   78   74       67       # 11           # 17
common opponents        +4.38
NCAA NET                                               # 12           # 14
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       #  9           # 15
Pomeroy offense                                        # 23           #  4
Pomeroy defense                                        # 19           # 75
Pomeroy tempo                                          #105           #256
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +6.02   78.4 72.0     66.3
scatter                  2.29    1.6  1.5      3.6

Here is Kansas' season, with a projected record of 22-9:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #264 North Carolina Central      99  56   +23.29   +19.71
HOME   #328 Manhattan                   99  61   +30.04    +7.96
NEUT   # 24 Kentucky                    89  84    +2.50    +2.50
Div2        Chaminade                   83  56
NEUT   # 10 Marquette                   59  73    -0.64   -13.36
NEUT   #  6 Tennessee                   69  60    -3.35   +12.35
HOME   #325 Eastern Illinois            71  63   +27.98   -19.98
HOME   #  3 Connecticut                 69  65    -0.56    +4.56
HOME   #272 UMKC                        88  69   +24.01    -5.01
HOME   #139 Missouri                    73  64   +16.55    -7.55
AWAY   # 96 Indiana                     75  71    +6.27    -2.27
HOME   # 86 Yale                        75  60   +11.77    +3.23
NEUT   #151 Wichita St.                 86  67   +14.78    +4.22
HOME   # 29 TCU                         83  81    +6.76    -4.76
AWAY   # 68 UCF                         60  65    +3.77    -8.77
HOME   # 21 Oklahoma                    78  66    +5.42    +6.58
AWAY   #121 Oklahoma St.                90  66    +8.64   +15.36
AWAY   #134 West Virginia               85  91    +9.60   -15.60
HOME   # 32 Cincinnati                  74  69    +6.71    -1.71
AWAY   # 12 Iowa St.                    75  79    -3.92    -0.08
HOME   #121 Oklahoma St.                83  54   +15.64   +13.36
HOME   #  1 Houston                     78  65    -2.80   +15.80
AWAY   # 72 Kansas St.                  70  75    +4.01    -9.01
HOME   # 16 Baylor                      78  74    +4.10             0.651
AWAY   # 36 Texas Tech                  75  75    -0.08             0.497
AWAY   # 21 Oklahoma                    72  74    -1.58             0.441
HOME   # 31 Texas                       77  71    +6.59             0.733
HOME   # 11 BYU                         78  75    +2.94             0.610
AWAY   # 16 Baylor                      74  77    -2.90             0.392
HOME   # 72 Kansas St.                  75  64   +11.01             0.851
AWAY   #  1 Houston                     62  72    -9.80             0.177

Here is Baylor's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  4 Auburn                      88  82    -4.43   +10.43
NAIA        John Brown                  96  70
HOME   #189 Gardner Webb                77  62   +19.71    -4.71
HOME   #272 UMKC                        99  61   +22.60   +15.40
NEUT   #162 Oregon St.                  88  72   +13.36    +2.64
NEUT   # 35 Florida                     95  91    +3.00    +1.00
HOME   #267 Nicholls St.               108  70   +21.85   +16.15
HOME   #327 Northwestern St.            91  40   +27.83   +23.17
HOME   # 62 Seton Hall                  78  60    +9.04    +8.96
NEUT   # 17 Michigan St.                64  88    +0.32   -24.32
NEUT   # 15 Duke                        70  78    -0.53    -7.47
HOME   #362 Mississippi Valley St.     107  48   +37.69   +21.31
HOME   #103 Cornell                     98  79   +13.47    +5.53
AWAY   #121 Oklahoma St.                75  70    +7.57    -2.57
HOME   # 11 BYU                         81  72    +2.36    +6.64
HOME   # 32 Cincinnati                  62  59    +5.99    -2.99
AWAY   # 72 Kansas St.                  64  68    +3.13    -7.13
AWAY   # 31 Texas                       73  75    -1.11    -0.89
HOME   # 29 TCU                        102 105    +6.02    -9.02
AWAY   # 68 UCF                         77  69    +2.88    +5.12
HOME   # 12 Iowa St.                    70  68    +2.50    -0.50
HOME   # 36 Texas Tech                  79  73    +6.20    -0.20
AWAY   # 13 Kansas                      74  78    -4.10             0.349
HOME   # 21 Oklahoma                    76  71    +4.75             0.673
AWAY   #134 West Virginia               78  70    +8.49             0.789
AWAY   # 11 BYU                         75  79    -4.64             0.330
HOME   #  1 Houston                     65  68    -3.09             0.385
AWAY   # 29 TCU                         77  78    -0.98             0.463
HOME   # 13 Kansas                      77  74    +2.90             0.608
HOME   # 31 Texas                       77  71    +5.89             0.711
AWAY   # 36 Texas Tech                  75  75    -0.80             0.470