predictions for Kansas State game

Trap game?  Coming off a big win over Houston, and we have Baylor coming to town
next weekend, along with College Gameday.  Kansas State is among the four teams
at the bottom of the conference in the projected standings, but Kansas has already
lost on the road to two of them.  Holding serve at home is something the Jayhawks
have managed to do so far, but picking up road wins has proven to be a struggle.
If Kansas wants to win the Big 12, they need at least a couple more road wins, and
this one is the easiest of the bunch on paper.

However, Kansas State has played below expectation in their last three games, and
came within a fraction of a point of doing so in its last five games.  Meanwhile,
Kansas is coming off of two above expectation performance, both greater than a
standard deviation above.  Coincides with Furphy getting comfortable in his role.
He can stroke the three, grab rebounds, drive to the basket, dunk, and fly down
the court in transition; just needs to become a defensive juggernaut.

I've been up all night chasing killer asteroids, so I'll keep this short so that
I can get some sleep before tip-off.  All the usual prognosticators are picking
Kansas to win the game, though RealTime, Whitlock, and Colley all have it down
in the one-point nail-biter range.  Dunkel is the optimist, putting the margin
at a comfortable 11.5 points, though Dunkel's predictions haven't been doing too
well compared to the competition.  The average is 4.8 points with a scatter of
2.6 points.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      KSU     KU      Defensive Stats      KSU     KU
Points/Game         72.0    79.0     Opp Points/Game     68.7    68.0
Avg Score Margin    +3.4   +10.9     Opp Effective FG %  46.1    46.2
Assists/Game        14.4    20.3     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.2     7.4
Total Rebounds/Gm   37.5    36.9     Def Rebounds/Gm     23.5    26.5
Effective FG %      49.8    56.8     Blocks/Game          4.5     4.2
Off Rebound %       33.0    26.3     Steals/Game          6.7     7.1
FTA/FGA            0.356   0.323     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.1    14.5
Turnover %          18.3    15.1   

My Stats Comparison        KU             KSU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.81           +0.22    
inconsistency         10.89           11.94    
trend                 +0.10 ± 0.40    -0.05 ± 0.41
mental toughness      +0.09 ± 0.24    -0.03 ± 0.27         
average total pts      147.00         140.73

Common Opponents
================
There are seven common opponents, six in conference and Wichita State, one of
which both teams have played twice, so only the home-home and road-road
permtuations will be considered, giving us eight scores to compare:

KU  +19 WSU neutral (+19 neutral court)
KSU  +9 WSU neutral ( +9 neutral court)
KU   +7 KSU on road (+10 neutral court)

KU   -5 UCF on road ( -2 neutral court)
KSU +25 UCF at home (+22 neutral court)
KU  -27 KSU on road (-24 neutral court)

KU   -6 WVU on road ( -3 neutral court)
KSU +14 WVU on road (+17 neutral court)
KU  -23 KSU on road (-20 neutral court)

KU  +29 OSU at home (+26 neutral court)     KU  +24 OSU on road (+27 neutral court)
KSU  +4 OSU at home ( +1 neutral court)     KSU  -3 OSU on road (  0 neutral court)
KU  +22 KSU on road (+25 neutral court)     KU  +24 KSU on road (+27 neutral court)

KU   -4 ISU on road ( -1 neutral court)
KSU -11 ISU on road ( -8 neutral court)
KU   +4 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court)

KU  +13 UH  at home (+10 neutral court)
KSU -22 UH  on road (-19 neutral court)
KU  +26 KSU on road (+29 neutral court)

KU  +12 OU  at home ( +9 neutral court)
KSU -20 OU  at home (-23 neutral court)
KU  +29 KSU on road (+32 neutral court)

Two of the comparisons favor Kansas State while the other five favor Kansas.
The average is 7.75 points in favor of Kansas, despite the UCF and West Virginia
comparisons, with a scatter of a whopping 22.10 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Tylor Perry (guard)
most points        Cam Carter (guard)
most rebounds      Arthur Kaluma (forward)
most assists       Tylor Perry (guard)
most steals        Cam Carter (guard)
most blocks        William McNair (forward)
most turnovers     Arthur Kaluma (forward)
most fouls         Cam Carter (guard)

Reserve guard Ques Glover is out for the season following knee surgery.
Reserve forward David N'Guessan has a knee injury and is questionable; he is
fourth on the team in minutes played and points scored per game.

I might take these with a grain of salt, as it appears that Greenfield has a
serious bug in their database, based on the fact that the Kansas player with the
most minutes is Charlie McCarthy with 37.00, the Kansas player with the most
points is Charlie McCarthy with 34.00, and the Kansas player with the most steals
is Charlie McCarthy with 2.00.  "To err is humnan; to really screw up takes a
computer."

                                                          18-4           14-8
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      Kansas State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +4.00   72   68       64       #  4   # 12    # 55   # 24
Pomeroy                 +4.73   73   68       67.3     # 12   # 15    # 75   # 48
Greenfield              +4.50   75   70                # 13   # 10    # 66   # 47
Dunkel                 +11.50   80   69                #  8           # 57
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +4.50   74   70                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +4.74   73   68       66.2     # 13   # 10    # 73   # 53
Real Time               +1.00   77   76       51.7     #  6   # 14    #111   # 54 
Seven Overtimes         +4.00   74   70       64       #  7   # 14    #107   # 26
DPPI                    +5.00   74.5 70       63.3     # 11   # 13    # 74   # 39 
ESPN BPI                +4.50                 66.8     # 15   # 17    # 62   # 39
Whitlock                +1.33                          # 19   # 37    # 71   # 44
Colley Matrix           +1.38                          # 12   # 28    # 52   # 71
Donchess                +4.90   75   70       65.8     #  9   # 16    # 63   # 47
Haslametrics            +6.79   73   67                # 13           # 91
INCCStats               +6.00   74   68       70       #  9           # 68
common opponents        +7.75
NCAA NET                                               # 10           # 83
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       #  8           # 74
Pomeroy offense                                        # 17           #155
Pomeroy defense                                        # 19           # 26
Pomeroy tempo                                          #107           #231
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +4.79   74.5 69.5     64.3
scatter                  2.57    2.2  2.3      5.2

Here is Kansas' season, with a projected record of 23-8:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #246 North Carolina Central      99  56   +22.72   +20.28
HOME   #331 Manhattan                   99  61   +30.65    +7.35
NEUT   # 27 Kentucky                    89  84    +3.51    +1.49
Div2        Chaminade                   83  56
NEUT   # 11 Marquette                   59  73    -0.28   -13.72
NEUT   #  6 Tennessee                   69  60    -2.79   +11.79
HOME   #328 Eastern Illinois            71  63   +28.74   -20.74
HOME   #  3 Connecticut                 69  65    -0.35    +4.35
HOME   #272 UMKC                        88  69   +24.38    -5.38
HOME   #125 Missouri                    73  64   +16.19    -7.19
AWAY   # 99 Indiana                     75  71    +7.04    -3.04
HOME   # 85 Yale                        75  60   +12.21    +2.79
NEUT   #158 Wichita St.                 86  67   +15.57    +3.43
HOME   # 29 TCU                         83  81    +7.18    -5.18
AWAY   # 69 UCF                         60  65    +4.02    -9.02
HOME   # 25 Oklahoma                    78  66    +6.65    +5.35
AWAY   #123 Oklahoma St.                90  66    +9.04   +14.96
AWAY   #136 West Virginia               85  91    +9.99   -15.99
HOME   # 30 Cincinnati                  74  69    +7.11    -2.11
AWAY   # 14 Iowa St.                    75  79    -3.08    -0.92
HOME   #123 Oklahoma St.                83  54   +16.04   +12.96
HOME   #  1 Houston                     78  65    -2.56   +15.56
AWAY   # 75 Kansas St.                  73  68    +4.73             0.673
HOME   # 16 Baylor                      78  74    +4.43             0.662
AWAY   # 32 Texas Tech                  75  75    +0.30             0.511
AWAY   # 25 Oklahoma                    73  74    -0.35             0.487
HOME   # 26 Texas                       78  71    +6.66             0.735
HOME   #  9 BYU                         78  76    +2.53             0.594
AWAY   # 16 Baylor                      75  77    -2.57             0.404
HOME   # 75 Kansas St.                  76  65   +11.73             0.866
AWAY   #  1 Houston                     62  72    -9.56             0.183

Here is Kansas State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 92 USC                         69  82    +1.48   -14.48
HOME   #308 Bellarmine                  83  75   +17.46    -9.46
HOME   #168 South Dakota St.            91  68   +11.00   +12.00
NEUT   # 56 Providence                  73  70    -2.01    +5.01
NEUT   # 66 Miami FL                    83  91    -1.16    -6.84
HOME   #342 Central Arkansas           100  56   +23.07   +20.93
HOME   #214 Oral Roberts                88  78   +13.21    -3.21
HOME   #245 North Alabama               75  74   +14.50   -13.50
HOME   # 39 Villanova                   72  71    -0.15    +1.15
AWAY   # 79 LSU                         75  60    -3.22   +18.22
HOME   # 46 Nebraska                    46  62    +0.63   -16.63
NEUT   #158 Wichita St.                 69  60    +6.87    +2.13
HOME   #287 Chicago St.                 62  55   +16.14    -9.14
HOME   # 69 UCF                         77  52    +2.63   +22.37
AWAY   #136 West Virginia               81  67    +1.40   +12.60
AWAY   # 32 Texas Tech                  59  60    -7.69    +6.69
HOME   # 16 Baylor                      68  64    -3.47    +7.47
HOME   #123 Oklahoma St.                70  66    +7.64    -3.64
AWAY   # 14 Iowa St.                    67  78   -11.30    +0.30
AWAY   #  1 Houston                     52  74   -16.89    -5.11
HOME   # 25 Oklahoma                    53  73    -1.54   -18.46
AWAY   #123 Oklahoma St.                72  75    +0.64    -3.64
HOME   # 12 Kansas                      68  73    -4.73             0.327
AWAY   #  9 BYU                         65  78   -12.67             0.116
HOME   # 29 TCU                         72  73    -1.30             0.451
AWAY   # 26 Texas                       65  73    -8.38             0.214
HOME   #  9 BYU                         68  74    -5.67             0.296
HOME   #136 West Virginia               73  64    +8.40             0.786
AWAY   # 30 Cincinnati                  63  71    -8.06             0.223
AWAY   # 12 Kansas                      65  76   -11.73             0.134
HOME   # 14 Iowa St.                    66  70    -4.30             0.342