Big 12 projection, round 9

                      Init   Rd 4   Rd 5   Rd 6   Rd 7   Rd 8   Rd 9
                      Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Conf.             Pred.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Recrd  Next Game  Score
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  -----  ---------  -----
#  1  Houston        14.753 13.291 13.395 13.891 14.032 14.157 13.223   6  3   OSU  Tue  74-53
# 15  Iowa State     10.283 10.363 11.068 11.222 11.568 11.539 11.155   5  3  @UT   Tue  72-73
# 13  Kansas         11.129 11.149  9.975 10.129  9.899 10.141 11.123   6  3  @KSU  Mon  73-68  RW
#  9  BYU            13.331 11.754 10.996 10.537 10.883 10.865 11.066   4  4  @OU   Tue  75-74  RW
# 16  Baylor         10.930 11.226 10.485 10.535  9.608 10.046 10.482   5  3   TTU  Tue  78-72
# 32  Texas Tech      8.828 10.116 10.926 10.955 11.724 11.279 10.376   5  3  @BU   Tue  72-78
# 29  TCU             8.897 10.101  9.485  9.699 10.539 10.935  9.956   5  4   bye
# 26  Texas           8.957  6.422  7.099  8.313  8.013  7.835  8.802   4  5   ISU  Tue  73-72
# 30  Cincinnati      8.497  9.415  8.605  8.372  8.680  7.848  8.699   4  5   bye
# 25  Oklahoma        9.775  9.673 10.451  9.153  8.438  9.338  8.485   4  5   BYU  Tue  74-75
# 69  UCF             5.855  6.960  6.883  7.267  6.935  6.465  7.319   4  5   bye
# 75  Kansas State    6.225  8.624  8.740  8.583  8.349  7.542  6.881   4  5   KU   Mon  68-73
#135  West Virginia   3.680  3.496  4.655  4.376  4.040  4.923  4.778   3  6   bye
#123  Oklahoma State  4.861  3.409  3.237  2.968  3.292  3.086  3.656   2  7  @UH   Tue  53-74

Seven Overtimes took honors for best prognostications in Round 9, with Dunkel pulling up the
rear by a wide margin, despite having the best prediction for the Kansas/Houston game.  Vegas
retains the season lead, with Dunkel still at the bottom.

Four road wins were projected for Round 9, but only one of those four actually happened,
while two unexpected ones happened.  We're still right at the long-term one-in-three rate
for road wins.  Two road wins are projected for Round 10, with Kansas expected to win in
Manhattan, and BYU expected to win in Norman, but by just a point, so that could easily
go the other way.

Road wins (21 out of  61)                    Home losses                                   RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
3 Texas          UC  OU  TCU                 0 Houston                                    +2 UH
2 Baylor         OSU UCF                     0 Iowa State                                 +1 BU
2 BYU            UCF WVU                     0 Kansas                                     +1 ISU
2 Cincinnati     BYU TTU                     1 Baylor         TCU                         +1 KU
2 Houston        BYU UT                      1 Kansas State   OU                          +1 TTU
2 Oklahoma       UC  KSU                     1 Texas Tech     UC                           0 BYU
2 TCU            OSU BU                      2 BYU            UC  UH                       0 KSU
2 Texas Tech     UT  OU                      2 Cincinnati     UT  OU                       0 OU
1 Iowa State     TCU                         2 Oklahoma       UT  TTU                      0 TCU
1 Kansas         OSU                         2 TCU            ISU UT                       0 UC
1 Kansas State   WVU                         2 UCF            BYU BU                       0 UT
1 UCF            UT                          2 West Virginia  KSU BYU                     -1 UCF
0 Oklahoma State                             3 Oklahoma State BU  KU  TCU                 -2 WVU 
0 West Virginia                              3 Texas          TTU UCF UH                  -3 OSU

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Iowa State      +4.49    Oklahoma State    7.94
BYU             +4.22    TCU               7.97
Houston         +3.53    West Virginia     8.51
Baylor          +2.82    Houston           8.56
UCF             +1.64    Texas Tech        9.89
Cincinnati      +1.60    Cincinnati        9.90
TCU             +1.52    Texas             9.94
Oklahoma        +1.13    Oklahoma         10.65
Texas Tech      +0.79    Kansas           10.89
Kansas          +0.74    Baylor           11.31
Texas           +0.21    BYU              11.44
Kansas State    +0.20    Kansas State     12.01
Oklahoma State  -0.21    Iowa State       12.08
West Virginia   -1.27    UCF              12.11

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
West Virginia   +0.32 +/- 0.28    West Virginia   +0.13 +/- 0.23
Texas Tech      +0.24 +/- 0.36    Kansas          +0.10 +/- 0.24
Texas           +0.21 +/- 0.34    Kansas State    -0.01 +/- 0.27
UCF             +0.18 +/- 0.45    Cincinnati      -0.02 +/- 0.21
Kansas          +0.11 +/- 0.40    Texas           -0.04 +/- 0.19
Kansas State    -0.06 +/- 0.41    Oklahoma        -0.05 +/- 0.19
TCU             -0.16 +/- 0.27    TCU             -0.09 +/- 0.14
Cincinnati      -0.18 +/- 0.34    Texas Tech      -0.19 +/- 0.23
Oklahoma State  -0.22 +/- 0.27    UCF             -0.24 +/- 0.24
Oklahoma        -0.54 +/- 0.35    Oklahoma State  -0.36 +/- 0.14
Houston         -0.55 +/- 0.27    Iowa State      -0.57 +/- 0.18
Baylor          -0.57 +/- 0.43    BYU             -0.60 +/- 0.19
Iowa State      -0.78 +/- 0.41    Houston         -0.62 +/- 0.14
BYU             -0.86 +/- 0.37    Baylor          -0.68 +/- 0.18

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
BYU             83.76   Houston         54.48   Baylor          154.20   Houston         +18.68
Baylor          82.74   Iowa State      62.81   TCU             154.00   BYU             +17.05
TCU             82.39   UCF             65.75   BYU             150.48   Iowa State      +16.38
Iowa State      79.19   BYU             66.71   Kansas          147.00   Baylor          +11.28
Kansas          78.37   Oklahoma        66.91   Texas Tech      145.33   TCU             +10.77
Oklahoma        76.95   Cincinnati      67.38   Texas           144.73   Oklahoma        +10.05
Cincinnati      76.40   Kansas          68.63   Oklahoma        143.86   Kansas           +9.74
Texas Tech      76.37   Texas           68.69   Cincinnati      143.77   Cincinnati       +9.02
Texas           76.03   Texas Tech      68.96   Iowa State      142.00   Texas Tech       +7.40
Houston         73.16   Kansas State    69.16   West Virginia   141.32   Texas            +7.34
Kansas State    71.57   Oklahoma State  70.90   Oklahoma State  141.23   UCF              +5.36
UCF             71.11   Baylor          71.46   Kansas State    140.73   Kansas State     +2.41
Oklahoma State  70.33   TCU             71.61   UCF             136.86   Oklahoma State   -0.57
West Virginia   67.62   West Virginia   73.69   Houston         127.64   West Virginia    -6.07

As expected, everyone is now in the Top 100, and Kansas is back on top.

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          +8.97 ( 15)
Baylor          +8.73 ( 19)
West Virginia   +8.46 ( 21)
Houston         +6.38 ( 45)
Kansas State    +6.22 ( 47)
Texas           +6.14 ( 48)
Oklahoma        +4.80 ( 66)
Cincinnati      +4.73 ( 68)
Texas Tech      +4.69 ( 69)
UCF             +4.43 ( 73)
BYU             +4.17 ( 79)
TCU             +4.00 ( 80)
Oklahoma State  +3.14 ( 94)
Iowa State      +3.12 ( 95)