predictions for Houston game

Houston allows just 53 points per game, and that's a full 9 points
fewer than the second-place Cyclones.  Pomeroy has Houston's defense
ranked #1, 6.3 points per 100 possessions better than #2 Tennessee
(whom the Jayhawks have beaten, by the way).  The most that anyone
has scored on the Cougars this season is 72 points, and Texas needed
overtime to do that.  In regulation, the most Houston has allowed is
68, which they've done twice, one to TCU in a one-point road loss,
and one to BYU in a seven-point road win.  Texas only managed 65
points in regulation.

One interesting comparison is that when Houston does allow a basket
(which admittedly isn't very often), it is invariably assisted.
That means Houston's one-on-one defense is superb, but they don't
react fast enough to prevent assisted shots.  And guess what?  Kansas
is the best in the country at assisting shots.  That bodes well for
Kansas.

Is it a must win for the Jayhawks?  Well, at the moment, Kansas trails
Houston by  4.016 projected wins with 10 games to play.  If Kansas wins,
they'll pick up 0.663 projected wins while Houston will lose 0.663
projected wins, thereby shrinking the margin by 1.326 projected wins,
getting it down to 2.690 projected wins with 9 games to play.  And
that's before the ratings get adjusted.  A Kansas win would boost their
rating, while Houston's would sag a bit, so that margin would probably
round down to just 2 projected wins, and the conference championship
remains within reach.

But if Kansas were to lose, well, they would drop 0.337 of a projected
win, while Houston would gain that, and the margin would balloon to
4.69 projected wins with 9 games to play, a near impossibility to
overcome.  And it could approach 5 projected wins after the ratings
get adjusted.  But keep in mind that Kansas could still lose the game
without the ratings causing additional damage, because, for example,
a 1-point loss would still beat the spread, so the rating for Kansas
could improve.

Houston is remarkably consistent, right up there with TCU at the top
of the Big 12 conference, with their last seven games being played
within 10 points of expectation.  In other words, don't expect a
meltdown from Houston.

The Cougars do have a negative trend, a result of their worst games
coming in conference play, and their non-conference slate was
relatively soft, so the poorer performances have come against
tougher conference foes, leading to a negative mental toughness
rating.  Those cost Houston 3.4 points in a prediction that
incorporates these effects.

What Kansas needs to avoid is a repeat of a couple weeks ago, when
they followed a big win over Oklahoma State with a laid egg in
Morgantwon.  Fortunately, this time the Jayhawks are at home,
with a sixteen game home winning streak on the line.

There are a few prognosticators picking Kansas to win, RealTime
being one of them, thanks to his enormous home court advantage, but
the majority are calling for a loss.  Dunkel is the most optimistic,
expecting Kansas to win by 2.5 points, while the common opponents
comparison is the most pessimistic, largely due to the West Virginia
comparison.  The average is calling for a 2.8 point loss, but the
scatter is 3.2 points.  A one possession game can easily go either way.

To those who will attend the game in person, make the Allen Field House
experience something that Houston won't be prepared for.

Will the bat make a reappearance during today's Houston game?  Did
they shoo it out of the building, or just up into the rafters, allowing
it could make a repeat appearance?

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      UH      KU      Defensive Stats      UH      KU
Points/Game         74.0    79.0     Opp Points/Game     52.9    68.2
Avg Score Margin   +21.2   +10.8     Opp Effective FG %  41.6    46.3
Assists/Game        13.2    20.3     Off Rebounds/Gm     13.6     7.5
Total Rebounds/Gm   40.5    36.8     Def Rebounds/Gm     23.9    26.3
Effective FG %      49.9    56.0     Blocks/Game          5.3     4.3
Off Rebound %       39.9    26.0     Steals/Game         10.1     7.4
FTA/FGA            0.309   0.323     Personal Fouls/Gm   18.0    14.8
Turnover %          11.4    14.6   

My Stats Comparison        KU             UH 
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.96           +3.53    
inconsistency         10.40            7.68    
trend                 -0.10 ± 0.41    -0.36 ± 0.27
mental toughness      -0.03 ± 0.25    -0.55 ± 0.14         
average total pts      147.20         126.90

Common Opponents
================
There are four common opponents, all in conference:

KU   -6 WVU on road ( -3 neutral court)
UH  +34 WVU at home (+31 neutral court)
KU  -31 UH  at home (-34 neutral court)

KU   -4 ISU on road ( -1 neutral court)
UH   -4 ISU on road ( -1 neutral court)
KU   +3 UH  at home (  0 neutral court)

KU   +2 TCU at home ( -1 neutral court)
UH   -1 TCU on road ( +2 neutral court)
KU    0 UH  at home ( -3 neutral court)

KU   -5 UCF on road ( -2 neutral court)
UH  +15 UCF at home (+12 neutral court)
KU  -11 UH  at home (-14 neutral court)

That West Virginia comparison really hurts.  So does the UCF comparison, but not as
badly.  The average is -9.75 points, but with a scatter of 15.39 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       LJ Cryer (guard)
most points        LJ Cryer (guard)
most rebounds      J'Wan Roberts (forward)
most assists       Jamal Shead (guard)
most steals        Jamal Shead (guard)
most blocks        Ja'Vier Francis (forward)
most turnovers     Jamal Shead (guard)
most fouls         Joseph Tugler (forward)

Reserve guard Terrance Arceneaux is out for the season with a torn Achilles.
He was seventh on the team in both minutes played and points scored per game.

I might take these with a grain of salt, as it appears that Greenfield has a
serious bug in their database, based on the fact that the Kansas player with the
most minutes is Charlie McCarthy with 37.00, the Kansas player with the most
points is Charlie McCarthy with 34.00, and the Kansas player with the most steals
is Charlie McCarthy with 2.00.  "To err is humnan; to really screw up takes a
computer."

                                                          17-4           19-2
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Houston
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  -2.00   65   67       45       #  4   # 18    #  2   # 67
Pomeroy                 -4.46   64   69       33.7     # 15   # 24    #  1   # 55
Greenfield              -1.50   66.5 68                # 13   # 15    #  1   #  5
Dunkel                  +2.50   75   73                # 10           #  1
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -1.50   66   67                                        
Dolphin Predictive      -4.64   62   67       33.4     # 18   # 18    #  1   #  1
Real Time               +1.00   69   68       53.1     #  8   # 14    #  2   # 72 
Seven Overtimes         +1.00   69   68       58       # 14   # 18    #  2   # 75
DPPI                    -6.50   64   71       29.7     # 11   # 27    #  1   # 39 
ESPN BPI                -6.90                 24.6     # 17   # 32    #  1   # 41
Whitlock                -3.54                          # 19   # 37    #  2   # 35
Colley Matrix           +0.25                          # 12   # 28    #  2   # 46
Donchess                +0.10   68   68       49.7     # 10   # 25    #  1   # 49
Haslametrics            -5.14   63   68                # 18           #  1
INCCStats               -2.00   66   68       42       # 11           #  1
common opponents        -9.75
NCAA NET                                               # 13           #  1
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       # 10           #  2
Pomeroy offense                                        # 24           # 16
Pomeroy defense                                        # 22           #  1
Pomeroy tempo                                          #111           #352
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 -2.69   66.5 68.5     41.0
scatter                  3.37    3.5  1.8     11.4

Here is Kansas' season, with a projected record of 22-9:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #259 North Carolina Central      99  56   +22.73   +20.27
HOME   #335 Manhattan                   99  61   +30.18    +7.82
NEUT   # 24 Kentucky                    89  84    +1.98    +3.02
Div2        Chaminade                   83  56
NEUT   # 14 Marquette                   59  73    -0.35   -13.65
NEUT   #  6 Tennessee                   69  60    -3.23   +12.23
HOME   #321 Eastern Illinois            71  63   +26.98   -18.98
HOME   #  3 Connecticut                 69  65    -0.64    +4.64
HOME   #261 UMKC                        88  69   +22.90    -3.90
HOME   #118 Missouri                    73  64   +14.72    -5.72
AWAY   # 89 Indiana                     75  71    +5.36    -1.36
HOME   # 85 Yale                        75  60   +11.51    +3.49
NEUT   #160 Wichita St.                 86  67   +15.07    +3.93
HOME   # 22 TCU                         83  81    +5.14    -3.14
AWAY   # 76 UCF                         60  65    +3.94    -8.94
HOME   # 21 Oklahoma                    78  66    +5.08    +6.92
AWAY   #125 Oklahoma St.                90  66    +8.35   +15.65
AWAY   #131 West Virginia               85  91    +8.99   -14.99
HOME   # 34 Cincinnati                  74  69    +6.66    -1.66
AWAY   # 13 Iowa St.                    75  79    -3.99    -0.01
HOME   #125 Oklahoma St.                83  54   +15.35   +13.65
HOME   #  1 Houston                     64  69    -4.46             0.337
AWAY   # 74 Kansas St.                  72  68    +3.69             0.636
HOME   # 16 Baylor                      78  75    +3.50             0.630
AWAY   # 27 Texas Tech                  74  75    -1.09             0.459
AWAY   # 21 Oklahoma                    72  74    -1.92             0.428
HOME   # 35 Texas                       78  72    +6.68             0.736
HOME   #  9 BYU                         78  76    +1.75             0.566
AWAY   # 16 Baylor                      75  78    -3.50             0.370
HOME   # 74 Kansas St.                  75  65   +10.69             0.844
AWAY   #  1 Houston                     61  72   -11.46             0.139

Here is Houston's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #297 Louisiana Monroe            84  31   +31.26   +21.74
HOME   #206 Texas A&M Corpus Chris      82  50   +27.48    +4.52
HOME   #211 Stetson                     79  48   +26.51    +4.49
NEUT   #142 Towson                      65  49   +18.25    -2.25
NEUT   # 40 Utah                        76  66   +11.52    -1.52
NEUT   # 26 Dayton                      69  55    +9.13    +4.87
HOME   #151 Montana                     79  44   +23.61   +11.39
AWAY   # 39 Xavier                      66  60    +8.16    -2.16
HOME   #205 Rice                        75  39   +26.74    +9.26
HOME   #274 Jackson St.                 89  55   +30.93    +3.07
NEUT   # 46 Texas A&M                   70  66   +11.44    -7.44
HOME   #240 Texas St.                   72  37   +27.87    +7.13
HOME   #203 Penn                        81  42   +25.93   +13.07
HOME   #131 West Virginia               89  55   +22.83   +11.17
AWAY   # 13 Iowa St.                    53  57    +3.99    -7.99
AWAY   # 22 TCU                         67  68    +6.13    -7.13
HOME   # 27 Texas Tech                  77  54   +13.29    +9.71
HOME   # 76 UCF                         57  42   +18.21    -3.21
AWAY   #  9 BYU                         75  68    +2.84    +4.16
HOME   # 74 Kansas St.                  74  52   +17.76    +4.24
AWAY   # 35 Texas                       76  72    +7.08    -3.08
AWAY   # 15 Kansas                      69  64    +4.46             0.663
HOME   #125 Oklahoma St.                73  51   +22.07             0.981
AWAY   # 34 Cincinnati                  67  59    +7.18             0.751
HOME   # 35 Texas                       72  58   +14.08             0.908
HOME   # 13 Iowa St.                    70  59   +10.99             0.850
AWAY   # 16 Baylor                      69  64    +4.10             0.651
HOME   # 34 Cincinnati                  70  56   +14.18             0.910
AWAY   # 21 Oklahoma                    67  61    +5.76             0.707
AWAY   # 76 UCF                         67  56   +11.21             0.855
HOME   # 15 Kansas                      72  61   +11.46             0.861