Big 12 projection, round 8

                      Init   Rd 3   Rd 4   Rd 5   Rd 6   Rd 7   Rd 8
                      Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Conf.             Pred.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Recrd  Next Game  Score
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  -----  ---------  -----
#  1  Houston        14.753 13.102 13.291 13.395 13.891 14.032 14.157   6  2  @KU   Sat  69-64  RW
# 13  Iowa State     10.283 11.064 10.363 11.068 11.222 11.568 11.539   5  2  @BU   Sat  72-75
# 27  Texas Tech      8.828 10.532 10.116 10.926 10.955 11.724 11.279   5  2   UC   Sat  73-69
# 22  TCU             8.897 10.428 10.101  9.485  9.699 10.539 10.935   5  3   UT   Sat  80-75
#  9  BYU            13.331 11.086 11.754 10.996 10.537 10.883 10.865   3  4  @WVU  Sat  80-69  RW
# 15  Kansas         11.129 10.509 11.149  9.975 10.129  9.899 10.141   5  3   UH   Sat  64-69
# 16  Baylor         10.930 11.971 11.226 10.485 10.535  9.608 10.046   4  3   ISU  Sat  75-72
# 21  Oklahoma        9.775  9.582  9.673 10.451  9.153  8.438  9.338   4  4  @UCF  Sat  69-67  RW
# 34  Cincinnati      8.497  8.992  9.415  8.605  8.372  8.680  7.848   3  5  @TTU  Sat  69-73
# 35  Texas           8.957  7.481  6.422  7.099  8.313  8.013  7.835   3  5  @TCU  Sat  75-80
# 72  Kansas State    6.225  7.872  8.624  8.740  8.583  8.349  7.542   4  4  @OSU  Sat  66-65  RW
# 74  UCF             5.855  5.777  6.960  6.883  7.267  6.935  6.465   3  5   OU   Sat  67-69
#132  West Virginia   3.680  3.626  3.496  4.655  4.376  4.040  4.923   3  5   BYU  Sat  69-80
#126  Oklahoma State  4.861  3.978  3.409  3.237  2.968  3.292  3.086   1  7   KSU  Sat  65-66

RealTime took honors for best prognostications in Round 8, by virtue of his enormous
home court advantage, which gave him by far the most accurate prediction for the Kansas
versus Oklahoma State game.  Dunkel came in last by a wide margin, having picked UCF to
beat Baylor and having picked the largest margin for Kansas State to beat Oklahoma,
neither of which happened.  Vegas now has the season lead, with Dunkel still pulling up
the rear.

Three road wins were projected for Round 8, with a fourth being a toss-up.  That toss-up
turned out to be decidedly one-sided, with Oklahoma picking up a road win.  The Houston
road win at Texas came as no surprise, with the Longhorns scoring the most points of anybody
on Houston so far this season, though they needed overtime to do that.  Four road wins are
projected for Round 9, though we desperately need one of those to NOT happen.  BYU is favored
in Morgantown, Oklahoma is favored in Orlando, and Kansas State is favored in Stillwater by a
single point.

Road wins (18 out of  54)                    Home losses                                   RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
2 Baylor         OSU UCF                     0 Houston                                    +2 UH
2 Houston        BYU UT                      0 Iowa State                                 +2 TTU
2 TCU            OSU BU                      0 Kansas                                     +1 BU
2 Texas          UC  OU                      0 Texas Tech                                 +1 ISU
2 Texas Tech     UT  OU                      1 Baylor         TCU                         +1 KU
2 Oklahoma       UC  KSU                     1 Kansas State   OU                          +1 TCU
1 BYU            UCF                         1 TCU            ISU                          0 KSU
1 Cincinnati     BYU                         1 West Virginia  KSU                          0 OU
1 Iowa State     TCU                         2 BYU            UC  UH                      -1 BYU
1 Kansas         OSU                         2 Cincinnati     UT  OU                      -1 UC
1 Kansas State   WVU                         2 Oklahoma       UT  TTU                     -1 UCF
1 UCF            UT                          2 UCF            BYU BU                      -1 UT
0 Oklahoma State                             3 Texas          TTU UCF UH                  -1 WVU 
0 West Virginia                              3 Oklahoma State BU  KU  TCU                 -3 OSU

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Iowa State      +4.75    TCU               7.52
BYU             +4.43    Houston           7.71
Houston         +3.48    Oklahoma State    8.26
Baylor          +2.94    West Virginia     8.50
UCF             +1.81    Texas             9.82
Cincinnati      +1.76    Texas Tech        9.89
TCU             +1.38    Cincinnati       10.02
Oklahoma        +1.09    Kansas           10.32
Kansas          +0.95    Oklahoma         10.46
Texas Tech      +0.79    Baylor           11.47
Texas           +0.28    BYU              11.67
Kansas State    +0.21    UCF              11.98
Oklahoma State  -0.22    Kansas State     12.31
West Virginia   -1.30    Iowa State       12.37

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Texas Tech      +0.38 +/- 0.38    West Virginia   +0.12 +/- 0.24
West Virginia   +0.36 +/- 0.30    Kansas State     0.00 +/- 0.28
Texas           +0.09 +/- 0.36    Oklahoma        -0.02 +/- 0.20
TCU             +0.04 +/- 0.28    Kansas          -0.04 +/- 0.24
UCF             +0.03 +/- 0.48    TCU             -0.05 +/- 0.13
Kansas State     0.00 +/- 0.45    Cincinnati      -0.06 +/- 0.22
Kansas          -0.10 +/- 0.41    Texas           -0.08 +/- 0.19
Cincinnati      -0.28 +/- 0.36    Texas Tech      -0.17 +/- 0.22
Oklahoma State  -0.31 +/- 0.30    UCF             -0.29 +/- 0.24
Houston         -0.37 +/- 0.27    Oklahoma State  -0.36 +/- 0.15
Oklahoma        -0.44 +/- 0.37    Houston         -0.55 +/- 0.14
Baylor          -0.61 +/- 0.47    BYU             -0.59 +/- 0.19
Iowa State      -0.82 +/- 0.45    Iowa State      -0.60 +/- 0.19
BYU             -0.95 +/- 0.41    Baylor          -0.69 +/- 0.18

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
BYU             83.56   Houston         53.44   Baylor          155.05   Houston         +20.02
Baylor          83.50   Iowa State      62.54   TCU             154.52   Iowa State      +17.12
TCU             83.25   UCF             65.80   BYU             150.05   BYU             +17.07
Iowa State      79.66   BYU             66.49   Kansas          147.20   TCU             +11.98
Kansas          78.47   Oklahoma        66.65   Texas Tech      145.25   Baylor          +11.95
Oklahoma        77.54   Cincinnati      67.24   Texas           144.81   Oklahoma        +10.88
Texas Tech      76.68   Texas Tech      68.57   Oklahoma        144.19   Kansas           +9.75
Cincinnati      76.38   Kansas          68.72   Cincinnati      143.62   Cincinnati       +9.14
Texas           75.90   Texas           68.90   Iowa State      142.20   Texas Tech       +8.10
Houston         73.46   Kansas State    68.96   Oklahoma State  140.95   Texas            +7.00
Kansas State    71.46   Oklahoma State  70.76   West Virginia   140.48   UCF              +5.25
UCF             71.05   TCU             71.27   Kansas State    140.43   Kansas State     +2.50
Oklahoma State  70.19   Baylor          71.55   UCF             136.85   Oklahoma State   -0.57
West Virginia   67.45   West Virginia   73.02   Houston         126.90   West Virginia    -5.57

Playing the conference's weakest team at home hurt Kansas' strength of schedule,
as expected, but the Jayhawks will be right back on top after battling the #1
team this weekend, even though that game is also at home.  Still expecting
Iowa State to make the Top 100 this weekend, playing in Waco, which also ought
to keep Baylor neck-and-neck with Kansas in strength of schedule.

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Baylor          +8.14 ( 23)
Kansas          +8.10 ( 24)
West Virginia   +7.79 ( 28)
Kansas State    +6.00 ( 47)
Houston         +5.43 ( 52)
Texas           +4.81 ( 60)
Texas Tech      +4.39 ( 70)
Oklahoma        +4.10 ( 76)
BYU             +3.95 ( 78)
Cincinnati      +3.81 ( 82)
UCF             +3.79 ( 83)
TCU             +3.68 ( 85)
Oklahoma State  +3.06 ( 96)
Iowa State      +1.87 (114)