predictions for Oklahoma State game

So, Iowa State was favored by 4 to 5 points, and Iowa State won by 4 points.
Sounds like everything went pretty much as expected, so no big deal, right?
The problem is, if you're trying to win the Big 12 conference, and you're
four games behind the front-runner (in the projected standings), you need to
win some of those projected losses and avoid losing any of the projected
wins.  At the moment, the projection is for the champion to end the
conference season with a 14-4 record.  If that projection transpires, then
Kansas can afford to lose only one more game.  That's a very tall order.
Of course, the champion could wind up with a 13-5 record, which seems to be
the most popular among various pundits that cover the conference.  That
allows Kansas to lose just two more games.  I might offer the possibility
that the champion could end with a 12-6 record, which gives Kansas a bit
more breathing room, allowing for three more losses, but the Jayhawks are
currently projected to lose five more games.  Four of those projected
losses, however, are by fewer than 5 points, which makes victory a distinct
possibility, but this team hasn't really demonstrated that much luck so far,
at least in conference games.  Today's game is a projected victory; in fact,
it has the largest projected margin of any remaining game, so it's the
closest thing to a must win as any.  Considering that the Jayhawks won by
24 in Stillwater just a couple weeks ago, and that today's game is in the
friendly confines of Allen Field House, one might get the impression that
it should be a cakewalk.  That's what makes this game so dangerous.  It
seems that this Jayhawk team has a tendency to play down to the perceived
level of the opponent.  Do that, and you can lose.  No conference opponent
can be taken lightly.

On paper, however, we're looking at a 15.7 point win.  RealTime is the most
optimistic, expecting the Jayhawks to win by 25 points, while Massey is the
most pessimistic, picking Kansas by only 10 points.  That's actually a bit
surprising, as Massey has Kansas ranked #6, whereas the others I track have
Kansas #10 or lower.  So if Kansas is so highly ranked by Massey, why is
the projected margin so small?  Inquiring minds want to know!

The good news is that Oklahoma State's very best game this season came at
home against Oral Roberts, when they played 11.5 points above expectation.
A duplicate performance simply isn't enough to overcome the projected
margin for today's game.  Of course, that doesn't mean Oklahoma State
isn't capable of playing any better; it's just that they haven't done it
yet this season.  But if they hit 50 percent of their treys, anything is
possible.  Recall that the two most recent losses by Kansas involved
opponents who shot 57 and 47 percent from behind the arc, respectively.

The other thing worth noting is that Oklahoma State is among the most
consistent teams in the Big 12.  It would take a so-called "two sigma"
event for the Cowboys to overcome the projected margin, which has only
a 2.5 percent chance of happening.  But the software revisions that I
was forced to make this season when Sagarin dropped out of the ratings
business use a fixed value for the standard deviation, so the 91.4 percent
probability of winning is less than it would be if Oklahoma State's
consistency were taken into account.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      OSU     KU      Defensive Stats      OSU     KU
Points/Game         71.8    78.8     Opp Points/Game     69.5    68.9
Avg Score Margin    +2.4    +9.8     Opp Effective FG %  49.4    46.9
Assists/Game        14.7    20.2     Off Rebounds/Gm      7.9     7.7
Total Rebounds/Gm   35.2    36.5     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.3    25.8
Effective FG %      52.6    55.6     Blocks/Game          2.8     4.3
Off Rebound %       25.9    26.5     Steals/Game          6.4     7.4
FTA/FGA            0.315   0.332     Personal Fouls/Gm   15.8    14.9
Turnover %          17.2    14.7   

My Stats Comparison        KU             OSU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.75           -0.07    
inconsistency         10.28            7.89    
trend                 -0.35 ± 0.43    -0.15 ± 0.31
mental toughness      +0.01 ± 0.25    -0.29 ± 0.16         
average total pts      147.74         141.15

Common Opponents
================
There are three common opponents, namely Iowa State, TCU, and West Virginia, plus
the head-to-head in Stillwater, giving us four scores to compare:

KU   -4 ISU on road ( -1 neutral court)
OSU -24 ISU on road (-21 neutral court)
KU  +23 OSU at home (+20 neutral court)

KU   +2 TCU at home ( -1 neutral court)
OSU  -5 TCU at home ( -8 neutral court)
KU  +10 OSU at home ( +7 neutral court)

KU   -6 WVU on road ( -3 neutral court)
OSU  +4 WVU at home ( +1 neutral court)
KU   -1 OSU at home ( -4 neutral court)

KU  +24 OSU on road (+27 neutral court)
KUU +30 OSU at home (+27 neutral court)

These average to a 15.5 point advantage for Kansas, but with a scatter of 13.8 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Javon Small (guard)
most points        Javon Small (guard)
most rebounds      Brandon Garrison (center)
most assists       Javon Small (guard)
most steals        Quion Williams (guard)
most blocks        Brandon Garrison (center)
most turnovers     Javon Small (guard)
most fouls         Brandon Garrison (center)

Reserve center Mike Marsh was sick for the previous game.  His status for today's
game is uncertain.

I might take these with a grain of salt, as it appears that Greenfield has a
serious bug in their database, based on the fact that the Kansas player with the
most minutes is Charlie McCarthy with 37.00, the Kansas player with the most
points is Charlie McCarthy with 34.00, and the Kansas player with the most steals
is Charlie McCarthy with 2.00.  "To err is humnan; to really screw up takes a
computer."

                                                          16-4           9-11
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      Oklahoma St.
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                 +10.00   75   76       83       #  6   # 15    #106   # 79
Pomeroy                +14.46   79   65       91.4     # 17   # 13    #119   #116
Greenfield             +16.00   81   65                # 16   # 12    #105   # 88
Dunkel                 +19.50   79   60                # 12           #126
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +16.00   81   65                                        
Dolphin Predictive     +13.06   78   65       87.3     # 21   # 16    #121   # 98
Real Time              +25.00   90   65       93.6     # 10   # 16    #176   #213 
Seven Overtimes        +12.00   78   66       89       # 16   # 18    #125   # 65
DPPI                   +14.90   79   64.5     89.2     # 14   # 18    #106   # 90 
ESPN BPI               +16.50                 92.6     # 17   # 21    #121   # 75
Whitlock               +13.40                          # 19   # 37    #128   # 84
Colley Matrix          +18.79                          # 12   # 28    #166   #100
Donchess               +14.00   78   64       91.6     # 10   # 18    #112   # 95
Haslametrics           +13.69   70   77                # 21           #111
INCCStats              +13.00   79   66       90       # 11           #101
common opponents       +15.50
NCAA NET                                               # 12           # 138
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       # 10           #130
Pomeroy offense                                        # 24           #170
Pomeroy defense                                        # 25           # 87
Pomeroy tempo                                          #113           #224
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 15.36   78.9 66.5     89.7
scatter                  3.51    4.6  4.9      3.2

Here is Kansas' season, with a projected record of 22-9:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #256 North Carolina Central      99  56   +22.28   +20.72
HOME   #340 Manhattan                   99  61   +30.01    +7.99
NEUT   # 20 Kentucky                    89  84    +1.26    +3.74
Div2        Chaminade                   83  56
NEUT   # 14 Marquette                   59  73    -0.49   -13.51
NEUT   #  4 Tennessee                   69  60    -4.56   +13.56
HOME   #313 Eastern Illinois            71  63   +25.78   -17.78
HOME   #  3 Connecticut                 69  65    -1.09    +5.09
HOME   #270 UMKC                        88  69   +23.14    -4.14
HOME   #113 Missouri                    73  64   +13.71    -4.71
AWAY   # 92 Indiana                     75  71    +5.29    -1.29
HOME   # 87 Yale                        75  60   +11.50    +3.50
NEUT   #151 Wichita St.                 86  67   +13.97    +5.03
HOME   # 23 TCU                         83  81    +5.07    -3.07
AWAY   # 72 UCF                         60  65    +3.20    -8.20
HOME   # 28 Oklahoma                    78  66    +5.70    +6.30
AWAY   #119 Oklahoma St.                90  66    +7.46   +16.54
AWAY   #135 West Virginia               85  91    +9.12   -15.12
HOME   # 31 Cincinnati                  74  69    +5.84    -0.84
AWAY   # 12 Iowa St.                    75  79    -4.41    +0.41
HOME   #119 Oklahoma St.                79  65   +14.46             0.914
HOME   #  1 Houston                     64  69    -4.87             0.323
AWAY   # 65 Kansas St.                  71  69    +2.18             0.582
HOME   # 16 Baylor                      78  74    +3.43             0.627
AWAY   # 26 Texas Tech                  74  75    -1.62             0.439
AWAY   # 28 Oklahoma                    73  74    -1.30             0.451
HOME   # 35 Texas                       78  72    +6.42             0.728
HOME   #  9 BYU                         77  76    +1.34             0.550
AWAY   # 16 Baylor                      74  78    -3.57             0.368
HOME   # 65 Kansas St.                  75  66    +9.18             0.807
AWAY   #  1 Houston                     60  72   -11.87             0.131

Here is Oklahoma State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #229 Abilene Christian           59  64   +10.02   -15.02
HOME   #183 Sam Houston St.             85  70    +7.84    +7.16
NEUT   # 83 St. Bonaventure             64  66    -3.46    +1.46
NEUT   #164 Notre Dame                  64  66    +3.04    -5.04
HOME   #341 New Orleans                 96  68   +19.08    +8.92
HOME   #346 Houston Christian           92  65   +20.66    +6.34
HOME   # 15 Creighton                   65  79    -7.26    -6.74
AWAY   #108 Southern Illinois           68  70    -4.26    +2.26
NEUT   #172 Tulsa                       72  57    +4.01   +10.99
HOME   #218 Oral Roberts                81  60    +9.46   +11.54
HOME   #224 Wofford                     76  70    +9.68    -3.68
HOME   #322 South Carolina St.          84  70   +16.46    -2.46
HOME   #292 Chicago St.                 72  53   +13.01    +5.99
HOME   # 16 Baylor                      70  75    -7.11    +2.11
AWAY   # 26 Texas Tech                  73  90   -12.17    -4.83
AWAY   # 12 Iowa St.                    42  66   -15.31    -8.69
HOME   # 17 Kansas                      66  90    -7.46   -16.54
AWAY   # 65 Kansas St.                  66  70    -8.56    +4.56
HOME   # 23 TCU                         69  74    -6.15    +1.15
HOME   #135 West Virginia               70  66    +4.86    -0.86
AWAY   # 17 Kansas                      65  79   -14.46             0.086
HOME   # 65 Kansas St.                  65  67    -1.56             0.441
AWAY   #  1 Houston                     52  73   -21.69             0.020
AWAY   # 28 Oklahoma                    63  76   -12.13             0.126
HOME   #  9 BYU                         68  77    -9.54             0.184
AWAY   # 31 Cincinnati                  63  75   -12.01             0.128
HOME   # 28 Oklahoma                    67  72    -5.13             0.314
HOME   # 72 UCF                         66  67    -0.91             0.466
AWAY   # 35 Texas                       65  76   -11.28             0.143
HOME   # 26 Texas Tech                  68  73    -5.17             0.312
AWAY   #  9 BYU                         64  81   -16.54             0.059