Big 12 projection, round 7

Kansas is four games behind Houston with eleven to play.  Two of those are against Houston.
The Jayhawks need to sweep Houston to have any hope of winning the conference, though one of
those games isn't until the end of the regular season, so it's kind of a moot prediction.

                      Init   Rd 2   Rd 3   Rd 4   Rd 5   Rd 6   Rd 7
                      Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Conf.             Pred.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Recrd  Next Game  Score
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  -----  ---------  -----
#  1  Houston        14.753 13.906 13.102 13.291 13.395 13.891 14.032   5  2  @UT   Mon  70-62  RW
# 26  Texas Tech      8.828 10.523 10.532 10.116 10.926 10.955 11.724   5  1  @TCU  Tue  75-79
# 12  Iowa State     10.283 10.640 11.064 10.363 11.068 11.222 11.568   5  2   bye
#  9  BYU            13.331 10.811 11.086 11.754 10.996 10.537 10.883   3  4   bye
# 21  TCU             8.897  9.434 10.428 10.101  9.485  9.699 10.539   4  3   TTU  Tue  79-75
# 17  Kansas         11.129  9.953 10.509 11.149  9.975 10.129  9.899   4  3   OSU  Tue  79-65
# 16  Baylor         10.930 11.925 11.971 11.226 10.485 10.535  9.608   3  3  @UCF  Wed  72-69  RW
# 31  Cincinnati      8.497  9.053  8.992  9.415  8.605  8.372  8.680   3  4  @WVU  Wed  75-68  RW
# 28  Oklahoma        9.775 10.049  9.582  9.673 10.451  9.153  8.438   3  4  @KSU  Tue  68-68
# 65  Kansas State    6.225  8.108  7.872  8.624  8.740  8.583  8.349   4  3   OU   Tue  68-68
# 38  Texas           8.957  8.460  7.481  6.422  7.099  8.313  8.013   3  4   UH   Mon  62-70
# 72  UCF             5.855  5.635  5.777  6.960  6.883  7.267  6.935   3  4   BU   Wed  69-72
#135  West Virginia   3.680  2.787  3.626  3.496  4.655  4.376  4.040   2  5   UC   Wed  68-75
#118  Oklahoma State  4.861  4.385  3.978  3.409  3.237  2.968  3.292   1  6  @KU   Tue  65-79

Whitlock took honors for best prognostications in Round 7, edging out Pomeroy.  Colley
tied with Seven Overtimes for last place.  Vegas has taken over the season lead by a
hair over the BPI.  Dunkel remains in last place.

No road wins were projected for Round 7, but two happened anyway, with Texas Tech eking out
a win in Norman, and TCU needign triple overtime to take down Baylor in their new arena.
Three road wins are projected for Round 8, with a fourth being a toss-up.

Road wins (15 out of  48)                    Home losses                                   RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
2 TCU            OSU BU                      0 Houston                                    +2 TTU
2 Texas          UC  OU                      0 Iowa State                                 +1 ISU
2 Texas Tech     UT  OU                      0 Kansas                                     +1 KU
1 Baylor         OSU                         0 Kansas State                               +1 KSU
1 BYU            UCF                         0 Texas Tech                                 +1 TCU
1 Cincinnati     BYU                         1 Baylor         TCU                         +1 UH
1 Iowa State     TCU                         1 TCU            ISU                          0 BU
1 Kansas         OSU                         1 UCF            BYU                          0 UCF
1 Kansas State   WVU                         1 West Virginia  KSU                          0 UT
1 Oklahoma       UC                          2 BYU            UC  UH                      -1 BYU
1 UCF            UT                          2 Cincinnati     UT  OU                      -1 OU
1 Houston        BYU                         2 Oklahoma       UT  TTU                     -1 UC
0 Oklahoma State                             2 Texas          TTU UCF                     -1 WVU 
0 West Virginia                              3 Oklahoma State BU  KU  TCU                 -3 OSU

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Iowa State      +4.73    TCU               7.55
BYU             +4.34    Houston           7.58
Houston         +3.54    Oklahoma State    8.01
Baylor          +3.02    West Virginia     8.17
UCF             +1.78    Cincinnati        9.95
Cincinnati      +1.76    Texas            10.00
TCU             +1.46    Texas Tech       10.07
Oklahoma        +1.27    Oklahoma         10.09
Texas Tech      +0.84    Kansas           10.20
Kansas          +0.64    BYU              11.48
Kansas State    +0.23    Baylor           11.74
Texas           +0.19    Kansas State     11.86
Oklahoma State  -0.05    UCF              11.89
West Virginia   -1.37    Iowa State       12.49

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Texas Tech      +0.49 +/- 0.42    West Virginia   +0.08 +/- 0.23
Kansas State    +0.30 +/- 0.47    Kansas State    +0.05 +/- 0.27
West Virginia   +0.25 +/- 0.32    Kansas          +0.02 +/- 0.24
UCF             +0.15 +/- 0.51    Cincinnati      -0.04 +/- 0.22
Texas           +0.07 +/- 0.40    Oklahoma        -0.05 +/- 0.19
TCU             +0.03 +/- 0.30    TCU             -0.07 +/- 0.13
Oklahoma State  -0.17 +/- 0.32    Texas           -0.12 +/- 0.20
Cincinnati      -0.18 +/- 0.39    Texas Tech      -0.17 +/- 0.24
Houston         -0.28 +/- 0.29    UCF             -0.27 +/- 0.24
Kansas          -0.33 +/- 0.43    Oklahoma State  -0.29 +/- 0.16
Baylor          -0.71 +/- 0.52    Houston         -0.52 +/- 0.14
Oklahoma        -0.77 +/- 0.36    BYU             -0.59 +/- 0.18
Iowa State      -0.83 +/- 0.46    Iowa State      -0.59 +/- 0.20
BYU             -0.95 +/- 0.40    Baylor          -0.70 +/- 0.19

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Baylor          83.76   Houston         52.60   Baylor          155.56   Houston         +20.65
BYU             83.56   Iowa State      62.54   TCU             154.10   Iowa State      +17.12
TCU             83.25   UCF             65.12   BYU             150.05   BYU             +17.07
Iowa State      79.66   BYU             66.49   Kansas          147.74   TCU             +12.40
Kansas          78.33   Cincinnati      67.24   Oklahoma        145.10   Baylor          +11.97
Oklahoma        77.68   Oklahoma        67.43   Texas           144.65   Oklahoma        +10.25
Cincinnati      76.86   Texas Tech      67.80   Texas Tech      144.32   Cincinnati       +9.62
Texas Tech      76.51   Texas           68.46   Cincinnati      144.10   Kansas           +8.92
Texas           76.19   Kansas State    68.68   Iowa State      142.20   Texas Tech       +8.71
Houston         73.25   Kansas          69.41   Kansas State    141.15   Texas            +7.72
Kansas State    72.47   Oklahoma State  70.24   Oklahoma State  141.15   UCF              +6.13
UCF             71.25   TCU             70.85   West Virginia   140.80   Kansas State     +3.80
Oklahoma State  70.91   Baylor          71.79   UCF             136.37   Oklahoma State   +0.67
West Virginia   67.46   West Virginia   73.34   Houston         125.85   West Virginia    -5.88

After Oklahoma State plays in Lawrence, the Cowboys will be in the Top 100
in terms of strength of schedule.  Ditto for Iowa State after they travel to
Waco, but that won't happen until next weekend.

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          +8.65 ( 16)
West Virginia   +7.62 ( 29)
Baylor          +7.53 ( 31)
Kansas State    +5.57 ( 47)
Houston         +4.55 ( 65)
BYU             +3.90 ( 79)
Texas Tech      +3.50 ( 81)
Cincinnati      +3.40 ( 84)
Texas           +3.29 ( 85)
TCU             +3.17 ( 89)
Oklahoma        +3.16 ( 90)
UCF             +2.88 ( 95)
Iowa State      +2.22 (107)
Oklahoma State  +1.77 (115)