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How KU Compares To Other Top Teams Right Now

  • ATXJayhawk
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8 years 9 months ago #3120 by ATXJayhawk
Here is how we rank based on Ken Pom ADJ OFF and ADJ DEF and the four factors: EFF FG %, Turnover %, OFF REB %, and Free-Throw Rate. Previous champions of the last 10 years have typically ranked in the top 8 in ADJ OFF, top 21 in ADJ DEF, and top 35 in OFF REB %.

Based on my research Iowa, North Carolina, Michigan State, and Oklahoma are the best contenders for the national championship at this point in the season.

KU is just on the outside with our offense and defense. We need to make the biggest improvement with our offensive rebounds. We also need to work on limiting our turnovers. We actually get to the free throw line better than all other contenders, but we need to start making more of them. We are actually a great shooting team as we have the 30th best overall FG%, and we have the 4th best three point shooting %.

I SAY LET THE BOYS SHOOT THE ROCK!!!

KU
ADJ OFF: 15
ADJ DEF: 39
EFF FG%: 26
TURNOVER %: 59
OFF REB %: 139
FREE THROW RATE: 136

Oklahoma
ADJ OFF: 3
ADJ DEF: 22
EFF FG%: 8
TURNOVER %: 111
OFF REB %: 132
FREE THROW RATE: 288

North Carolina
ADJ OFF: 4
ADJ DEF: 33
EFF FG%: 76
TURNOVER %: 11
OFF REB %: 6
FREE THROW RATE: 204

Iowa
ADJ OFF: 6
ADJ DEF: 16
EFF FG%: 33
TURNOVER %: 3
OFF REB %: 153
FREE THROW RATE: 300

Virginia
ADJ OFF: 7
ADJ DEF: 26
EFF FG%: 18
TURNOVER %: 19
OFF REB %: 273
FREE THROW RATE: 250

Michigan State
ADJ OFF: 11
ADJ DEF: 27
EFF FG%: 21
TURNOVER %: 125
OFF REB %: 35
FREE THROW RATE: 276

Crimson and blue looks so much better than burnt orange!!!

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8 years 9 months ago #3121 by ATXJayhawk
I'd like to add that Michigan State turns it over an average of 17.1% per possession which puts them at 125th. Not very good at all. Oklahoma turns it over an average of 17.0% per possession which puts them at 111th. Iowa and North Carolina are the best at limiting turnovers per possession. Also, Iowa, Michigan St., and North Carolina are all in the top 5 in Assist/Turnover Ratio and we all know how important that is come tournament time. Kansas is ranked 39th and Oklahoma is ranked 59 respectively.

ok, discuss...

Crimson and blue looks so much better than burnt orange!!!

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8 years 9 months ago - 8 years 9 months ago #3122 by konza63
Good stuff. Thank you!

Clearly we have our work cut out for us in terms of improving and rounding out the attack.

The one stat that made me about "blow a gasket" (hat tip to Self) was seeing Roy's TarHoles above KU in adjusted defensive efficiency. I've watched that over the years, and it's never lied in terms of Self's rep for good D and Roy's rep for treating D as an afterthought to the up-tempo offense.

That's telling and sad to see. And it makes me want Dave to add an emoji icon for a guy ramming his head against a wall. :angry:

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
Last Edit: 8 years 9 months ago by konza63.

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8 years 9 months ago - 8 years 9 months ago #3161 by konza63
I just realized what seems like an important omission from your list: Maryland.

I have them as one of the top four teams in the land at present (in terms of teams I have watched and believe have a very legit shot at making the Final Four). And when I looked up their numbers on KenPom, I see that they're ranked 10th overall, 11th in ADJ DEF, and 23rd in ADJ OFF. I don't have the more granular "four factor" numbers that you cited (what source are you using for those?), but am just curious why a very stout Maryland team failed to make your list.

PS: If I were to posit my strongest three teams right now, I'd go with OU, Maryland, and Iowa (in no particular order). After that, I'm just not sure, because there are many in that mix. For whatever reason, I'm not sold on Villanova. Maybe it's just past postseason performance, which has been notably underwhelming. Have they even played anyone yet? Anyone watch them this year and have a take on them? (One of the more quiet highly-ranked teams out there)

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
Last Edit: 8 years 9 months ago by konza63.

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8 years 9 months ago - 8 years 9 months ago #3165 by ATXJayhawk
I based my analysis of the traits of past champions from this website: www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article...cent-champions-great

I pull all my stats from this website: www.teamrankings.com/ncb/team-stats/

8 out of the last 10 champions have ranked in the top 8 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Coincidentally, Uconn's two title teams were the ones that missed that stat. All of the last 10 champions have ranked in the top 21 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

So, with that in mind lets take a look at Maryland. Their adjusted offensive efficiency is ranked 23rd which misses the cut. However, their adjusted defensive efficiency is ranked 11th which is great. Now lets move on to their four factors: effective field goal %, turnover %, offensive rebounding %, and finally free throw rate %. Bascially, how effective is the team at shooting, do they turn it over a lot, can they get extra opportunities to score after a missed shot, and how good are they at getting to the free throw line.

Maryland's effective field goal % is 7th best. However, four of the last six champions were ranked 83rd or worse in this area. Just because you are effective at shooting the ball doesn't mean you will automatically win. You have to look deeper at the other 3 factors. To me, Mayland's biggest problem is turnover %. They are ranked 267, or 19.3%. This means they turn the ball over an average of 19.3% per possession. They average 13.3 turnovers a game which is ranked 224th. North Carolina for example only turns it over 14.5% per posession which is ranked 11th and they only average 10.7 turnovers a game which is ranked 23rd.

Maryland is ranked 158th in offensive rebounding %, or 28.4%. This means they rebound the ball on the offensive side 28.4% of the time. West Virginia for example rebounds the ball on the offensive side 42.8% of the time, which is ranked 1st.

Finally, Maryland is ranked the 185th best team at getting to the free throw line, also called Free Throw Rate. However, once they do get to the free throw line they convert the 8th best percentage at 76.6% They should look at getting to the free throw line more often.

Right now, Iowa is the only team that meets both adjOFF and adjDEF critiera. Oklahoma is 2nd, followed by Virginia, Michigan State, and North Carolina. Another important stat to remember is average scoring margin. Michigan State is ranked 3rd, West Virginia is ranked 6th, North Carolina is ranked 8th, Oklahoma is ranked 9th, Villanova is ranked 10th, Iowa is ranked 16th, Maryland is ranked 20th, and KU is ranked 24th.

However, when you take the four factors into account North Carolina is the clear favorite and it's not even close.

They are ranked 4th in adj OFF, 36th in adj DEF, 75th in EFF FG%, 11th in turnover % (meaning they are 11th best at not turning the ball over), 6th in offensive rebounding % (meaning they are 6th best at offesnive rebounding), and 209th in free throw rate (meaning how often they get to the free throw line). Once they do get to the free throw line they have the 65th best free throw %, 72.9%.

Crimson and blue looks so much better than burnt orange!!!
Last Edit: 8 years 9 months ago by ATXJayhawk.

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8 years 9 months ago #3168 by ATXJayhawk
Here are the stats for Villanova. They are ranked 22nd in adj OFF, 8h in adj DEF, 42th in EFF FG%, 67th in turnover % (meaning they are 67th best at not turning the ball over), 89th in offensive rebounding % (meaning they are 89th best at offesnive rebounding), and 20th in free throw rate (meaning how often they get to the free throw line). Once they do get to the free throw line they have the 20th best free throw %, 75.3%.

They have been snakebitten in the tournament and I would expect the same thing this year.

Crimson and blue looks so much better than burnt orange!!!

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8 years 9 months ago - 8 years 9 months ago #3169 by konza63
Great stuff on Maryland, ATX, and I hope I didn't "spin out" too much of your workday on this. :S I realized after posting that Maryland just barely missed the cut on Adj OFF and Adj DEF, but I still felt like they were solid enough in both to warrant attention.

My eye test confirms the turnover problem for them that you cite. But my "basketball gut" tells me that, with the truly exceptional point guard leadership (and scoring threat) they have in Melo Trimble, the big and dynamic load they have inside with Diamond Stone (who as a freshman still has a ton of upside, but has really flashed at times this season), the outside scoring prowess and assassin-like nature of Sulaimon, and the defensive tenacity/mental-physical toughness emphasis of a coach like Turgeon, they are a team that most definitely could catch fire and do some serious damage in the tourney. Watch them closely, sports fans.

RE UNC standing out from the crowd, man, that makes me sick. Bilas has said he thinks they're the top team in the land, and I very much hope he and the current numbers you're seeing prove to be very wrong. Seeing Roy hoist 3 NC crowns at UNC, and just having that very tainted program get another championship even as the NCAA sits on their fraud-riddled case and refuses to do nothing, would be infuriating and exasperating.

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
Last Edit: 8 years 9 months ago by konza63.

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8 years 9 months ago #3170 by konza63
Good stuff!

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.

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8 years 9 months ago #3171 by ATXJayhawk
Thank you Konza. If Maryland can clean up their turnovers they have a good shot at making some noise in the tournament, but I don't think they will win the championship. What concerns me is their offense is only ranked 20th in scoring margin. All but 5 of the last 18 national champions have been ranked in the top 5 in average scoring margin. Right now Michigan State is 3rd, North Carolina is ranked 8th, and Oklahoma is ranked 9th. I'd bet one of those three are winning it all this year. I agree 100% with you on North Carolina. The numbers aren't lying with how complete they are this year. If they step up their defensive intensity they will be a tough out for anyone.

Average scoring margin rankings for the last 10 national championship teams:
2015 Duke: 5
2014 Uconn: 33
2013 Louisville: 4
2012 Kentucky: 1
2011 Uconn: 39
2010 Duke: 2
2009 North Carolina: 1
2008 Kansas: 1
2007 Florida: 1
2006 Florida: 2
2005 North Carolina: 1
2004 Uconn: 3
2003 Syracuse: 18
2002 Maryland: 4
2001 Duke: 1
2000 Michigan St: 6
1999 Uconn: 4
1998 Kentucky: 10

Crimson and blue looks so much better than burnt orange!!!

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8 years 9 months ago #3174 by konza63
Good stuff, ATX. But you now have me officially worried about UNC and a deep run. Up until now, I've been pretty dismissive of them. I really haven't watched them play more than 5 minutes per game this year, and no one for them just "wows" me. I also always just assume that a Roy-led team will skew heavily toward offense and worry less about good D, but it sounds like this year that's not the case. (Again, them being ranked above KU in Adj DEF just makes me want to bang my head against a wall!)

Here's to hoping that they derail early in the tourney (or at least prior to the final round)...

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.

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8 years 9 months ago #3233 by ATXJayhawk
Maryland had 18 turnovers tonight at Nebraska and only won by 5. Turnovers and a small scoring margin don't bode well for them in the tournament.

Crimson and blue looks so much better than burnt orange!!!

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8 years 9 months ago #3504 by konza63
ATXJay...after yet another loss last night (against a decent yet not good team), methinks the TarHoles are a bit overrated too. They may look shiny in that formula, but the eye test says they're just as vulnerable and shaky as all of the other top contenders this year.

I hope I'm right and the formula is very wrong, and UNC doesn't get anywhere close to sniffing a FF, much less a title, this year.

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.

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