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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Iowa State game
- asteroid
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9 months 4 weeks ago #32097
by asteroid
Why is Iowa State six spots higher than Kansas in the NCAA's NET rankings?
Kansas has a marignally better record (15-3 versus 15-4, Division I only),
their road records are identical at 2-2, Kansas has a better Quad 1 record
(3-2 versus 2-3, Kansas has a better Quad 2 record (4-0 versus 3-1), and
Kansas has far fewer games against Quad 4 (4-0 versus 9-0). Yes, Iowa State
has a better home record (12-0 versus 10-0), but that's because they've
played fewer road and neutral court games), and it's hard to say how the
record against Quad 3 matters, because Kansas is 4-1, while Iowa State is
just 1-0. Is that single Quad 3 loss costing Kansas that much in the NET?
We need West Virginia to play its way into Quad 2.
But it's not just the NET that thinks so highly of Iowa State. Pomeroy
also has the Cyclone ranked six spots higher than Kansas.
This is a huge game in the sense that it is currently a projected loss.
Turning that into a win would not only boost Kansas' projected win total
by the 0.7 of a win that it is currently not projected to get, but the
revised ratings would earn the Jayhawks another fraction of a projected
win. And then next week, we could have a repeat occurrence involving a
projected home loss to Houston, which could close the gap in the race for
a conference championship.
Dunkel is the most pessimistic, expecting Kansas to lose by 13 points.
The common opponent comparison is the most optimistic, giving Kansas a
2 point margin. The average, however, gives the nod to Iowa State by
4.3 points, with a scatter of 3.7 points. I'm scraching my head over
the Severn Overtimes prediction; Bashuk has Iowa State winning by 3,
but the confidence in that prediction is only 35 percent. Does that
mean that Kansas has a 65 percent chance of winning?
Where the Cyclones stand out is in their defense, which Pomeroy ranks
as the third best, behind Tennessee at #2, and Houston at #1. The
Jayhawks found a way to beat the Vols, though that was on a neutral
court, not in a hostile Hilton. Iowa State gives up an average of
61.8 points per game, a distant second to Houston's 52.4 in the Big 12.
I just can't pick against our Jayhawks. I've got it as Kansas 73,
Iowa State 72.
And I hate these early tips. But you already know that.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats ISU KU Defensive Stats ISU KU
Points/Game 80.5 79.0 Opp Points/Game 61.1 68.4
Avg Score Margin +19.5 +10.6 Opp Effective FG % 47.5 46.3
Assists/Game 17.3 20.3 Off Rebounds/Gm 9.7 7.5
Total Rebounds/Gm 35.3 36.3 Def Rebounds/Gm 22.8 25.7
Effective FG % 53.9 55.9 Blocks/Game 2.8 4.4
Off Rebound % 32.3 26.2 Steals/Game 11.3 7.6
FTA/FGA 0.404 0.333 Personal Fouls/Gm 15.8 14.8
Turnover % 13.6 14.7
My Stats Comparison KU ISU
=================== ============= ============
performance +0.66 +5.16
inconsistency 10.57 12.87
trend -0.39 ± 0.49 -0.86 ± 0.51
mental toughness +0.03 ± 0.26 -0.62 ± 0.21
average total pts 147.39 141.58
Common Opponents
================
There are three common opponents, namely Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and TCU:
KU +12 OU at home ( +9 neutral court)
ISU -8 OU on road ( -5 neutral court)
KU +11 ISU on road (+14 neutral court)
KU +24 OSU on road (+27 neutral court)
ISU +24 OSU at home (+21 neutral court)
KU +3 ISU on road ( +6 neutral court)
KU +2 TCU at home ( -1 neutral court)
ISU +1 TCU on road ( +4 neutral court)
KU -8 ISU on road ( -5 neutral court)
These average to a 2 point advantage for Kansas, but with a scatter of 9.5 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Milan Momcilovic (forward)
most points Tamin Lipsey (guard)
most rebounds Tamin Lipsey (guard)
most assists Tamin Lipsey (guard)
most steals Tamin Lipsey (guard)
most blocks Robert Jones (forward)
most turnovers Kershon Gilbert (guard)
most fouls Hason Ward (forward)
Forward Kayden Fish is out for the season with a shoulder injury. The Cyclones
have two redshirts, guard Jelani Hamilton and guard J.T. Rock.
I might take these with a grain of salt, as it appears that Greenfield has a
serious bug in their database, based on the fact that the Kansas player with the
most minutes is Charlie McCarthy with 37.00, the Kansas player with the most
points is Charlie McCarthy with 34.00, and the Kansas player with the most steals
is Charlie McCarthy with 2.00. "To err is humnan; to really screw up takes a
computer."
16-3 15-4
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Iowa State
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Massey -2.00 67 69 46 # 5 # 20 # 18 # 72
Pomeroy -4.62 72 76 33.1 # 17 # 28 # 12 #137
Greenfield -4.50 69 73.5 # 17 # 20 # 10 # 21
Dunkel -13.00 69 82 # 8 # 31
Vegas (via Dunkel) -4.00 69 73
Dolphin Predictive -6.14 69 75 29.7 # 24 # 23 # 7 # 12
Real Time -4.00 74 78 39.0 # 7 # 29 # 69 #189
Seven Overtimes -3.00 71 74 65 # 12 # 17 # 40 #110
DPPI -8.00 68 76 29.1 # 16 # 26 # 11 # 96
ESPN BPI -7.90 23.3 # 18 # 35 # 7 # 61
Whitlock -4.42 # 20 # 49 # 14 # 83
Colley Matrix +1.23 # 10 # 39 # 46 #133
Donchess -1.70 71 72 45.6 # 8 # 28 # 19 # 23
Haslametrics -7.14 70 77 # 23 # 8
INCCStats -2.00 72 74 42 # 12 # 15
common opponents +2.00
NCAA NET # 16 # 10
LRMC # # # #
Massey composite # 8 # 19
Pomeroy offense # 28 # 53
Pomeroy defense # 25 # 3
Pomeroy tempo #118 #120
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average -4.32 70.1 75.0 39.2
scatter 3.68 2.0 23.3 12.5
Here is Kansas' season, with a projected record of 22-9:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #266 North Carolina Central 99 56 +22.24 +20.76
HOME #343 Manhattan 99 61 +30.78 +7.22
NEUT # 20 Kentucky 89 84 +0.89 +4.11
Div2 Chaminade 83 56
NEUT # 16 Marquette 59 73 -0.21 -13.79
NEUT # 3 Tennessee 69 60 -4.74 +13.74
HOME #314 Eastern Illinois 71 63 +25.58 -17.58
HOME # 7 Connecticut 69 65 -0.16 +4.16
HOME #283 UMKC 88 69 +23.89 -4.89
HOME #112 Missouri 73 64 +13.53 -4.53
AWAY # 93 Indiana 75 71 +5.40 -1.40
HOME # 94 Yale 75 60 +11.92 +3.08
NEUT #159 Wichita St. 86 67 +14.43 +4.57
HOME # 26 TCU 83 81 +5.29 -3.29
AWAY # 69 UCF 60 65 +2.89 -7.89
HOME # 28 Oklahoma 78 66 +5.35 +6.65
AWAY #117 Oklahoma St. 90 66 +7.18 +16.82
AWAY #136 West Virginia 85 91 +8.98 -14.98
HOME # 32 Cincinnati 74 69 +5.93 -0.93
AWAY # 12 Iowa St. 72 76 -4.62 0.331
HOME #117 Oklahoma St. 80 65 +14.18 0.910
HOME # 1 Houston 64 69 -4.97 0.319
AWAY # 60 Kansas St. 71 70 +1.63 0.561
HOME # 14 Baylor 78 75 +2.89 0.608
AWAY # 29 Texas Tech 73 75 -1.56 0.441
AWAY # 28 Oklahoma 72 74 -1.65 0.438
HOME # 36 Texas 78 72 +6.22 0.722
HOME # 9 BYU 78 76 +1.40 0.553
AWAY # 14 Baylor 74 79 -4.11 0.349
HOME # 60 Kansas St. 75 66 +8.63 0.793
AWAY # 1 Houston 61 73 -11.97 0.129
Here is Iowa State's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #202 Green Bay 85 44 +19.73 +21.27
HOME #351 Lindenwood 102 47 +32.95 +22.05
HOME #293 Idaho St. 86 55 +24.75 +6.25
HOME #284 Grambling St. 92 37 +24.29 +30.71
NEUT # 95 VCU 68 64 +9.51 -5.51
NEUT # 59 Virginia Tech 62 71 +6.35 -15.35
NEUT # 42 Texas A&M 69 73 +4.03 -8.03
AWAY #280 DePaul 99 80 +17.74 +1.26
HOME # 49 Iowa 90 65 +9.37 +15.63
HOME #303 Prairie View A&M 107 56 +27.59 +23.41
HOME #342 Florida A&M 96 58 +31.10 +6.90
HOME #314 Eastern Illinois 80 48 +26.61 +5.39
HOME #212 New Hampshire 85 70 +22.47 -7.47
AWAY # 28 Oklahoma 63 71 -0.56 -7.44
HOME # 1 Houston 57 53 -3.94 +7.94
HOME #117 Oklahoma St. 66 42 +15.25 +8.75
AWAY # 9 BYU 72 87 -4.48 -10.52
AWAY # 26 TCU 73 72 -0.57 +1.57
HOME # 60 Kansas St. 78 67 +9.70 +1.30
HOME # 17 Kansas 76 72 +4.62 0.669
AWAY # 14 Baylor 73 76 -3.03 0.387
AWAY # 36 Texas 73 73 +0.30 0.511
HOME # 26 TCU 79 73 +6.43 0.728
AWAY # 32 Cincinnati 71 71 +0.03 0.501
HOME # 29 Texas Tech 75 69 +6.50 0.731
AWAY # 1 Houston 59 70 -10.94 0.151
HOME #136 West Virginia 81 64 +17.07 0.947
HOME # 28 Oklahoma 74 68 +6.44 0.729
AWAY # 69 UCF 71 67 +4.00 0.647
HOME # 9 BYU 76 73 +2.52 0.594
AWAY # 60 Kansas St. 70 67 +2.70 0.601
The following user(s) said Thank You: sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, boulderhawk, JayhawkChef, Socalhawk, porthawk, hoshi, jaythawk1
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