Big 12 projection, round 6

Texas Tech remains on top of the newspaper standings by virtue of its bye week.  There are
four teams sitting at 4-2, and they play each other on Saturday, so two teams are guaranteed
to get to five wins, and the other two are guaranteed to pick up a third loss.

                      Init   Rd 1   Rd 2   Rd 3   Rd 4   Rd 5   Rd 6
                      Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Conf.             Pred.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Recrd  Next Game  Score
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  -----  ---------  -----
#  1  Houston        14.753 14.923 13.906 13.102 13.291 13.395 13.891   4  2   KSU  Sat  70-54
# 12  Iowa State     10.283  9.500 10.640 11.064 10.363 11.068 11.222   4  2   KU   Sat  77-72
# 29  Texas Tech      8.828 10.113 10.523 10.532 10.116 10.926 10.955   4  1  @OU   Sat  70-73
#  9  BYU            13.331 11.595 10.811 11.086 11.754 10.996 10.537   2  4   UT   Sat  81-72
# 14  Baylor         10.930 11.363 11.925 11.971 11.226 10.485 10.535   3  2   TCU  Sat  82-76
# 18  Kansas         11.129 11.165  9.953 10.509 11.149  9.975 10.129   4  2  @ISU  Sat  72-77
# 25  TCU             8.897  8.838  9.434 10.428 10.101  9.485  9.699   3  3  @BU   Sat  76-82
# 27  Oklahoma        9.775 10.625 10.049  9.582  9.673 10.451  9.153   3  3   TTU  Sat  73-70
# 61  Kansas State    6.225  7.348  8.108  7.872  8.624  8.740  8.583   4  2  @UH   Sat  54-70
# 32  Cincinnati      8.497  9.970  9.053  8.992  9.415  8.605  8.372   2  4   UCF  Sat  73-65
# 36  Texas           8.957  7.615  8.460  7.481  6.422  7.099  8.313   3  3  @BYU  Sat  72-81
# 69  UCF             5.855  4.785  5.635  5.777  6.960  6.883  7.267   3  3  @UC   Sat  65-73
#136  West Virginia   3.680  3.467  2.787  3.626  3.496  4.655  4.376   2  4  @OSU  Sat  69-74
#117  Oklahoma State  4.861  4.635  4.385  3.978  3.409  3.237  2.968   0  6   WVU  Sat  74-69

ESPN's BPI took honors for best prognostications in Round 6.  Dunkel pulled up the rear
again, but by just a hair over Colley.  The BPI also now has the season lead, by just a
hair over Vegas.  Dunkel remains in last place.

Two road wins were projected for Round 6, and both happened, along with a third surprise road
win when Texas embarrassed Oklahoma in Norman.  No road wins are projected for Round 7.  Sure
would be nice to see one in Ames.  Some pundits talk about how hard it is to win on the road
in the Big 12, but at the moment, we're sitting a fraction of a road win away from the long
term average of one in three.  In other words, the road hasn't gotten any more difficult in
the Big 12.

Road wins (13 out of  41)                    Home losses                                   RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
2 Texas          UC  OU                      0 Baylor                                     +1 BU
1 Baylor         OSU                         0 Houston                                    +1 ISU
1 BYU            UCF                         0 Iowa State                                 +1 KU
1 Cincinnati     BYU                         0 Kansas                                     +1 KSU
1 Iowa State     TCU                         0 Kansas State                               +1 TTU
1 Kansas         OSU                         0 Texas Tech                                 +1 UH
1 Kansas State   WVU                         1 Oklahoma       UT                           0 OU
1 Oklahoma       UC                          1 TCU            ISU                          0 UCF
1 TCU            OSU                         1 UCF            BYU                          0 TCU
1 Texas Tech     UT                          1 West Virginia  KSU                          0 UT
1 UCF            UT                          2 BYU            UC  UH                      -1 BYU
1 Houston        BYU                         2 Cincinnati     UT  OU                      -1 UC
0 Oklahoma State                             2 Texas          TTU UCF                     -1 WVU 
0 West Virginia                              3 Oklahoma State BU  KU  TCU                 -3 OSU

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Iowa State      +5.05    Houston           7.81
BYU             +4.85    TCU               7.83
Houston         +3.82    Oklahoma State    8.24
Baylor          +3.16    West Virginia     8.31
Cincinnati      +1.96    Oklahoma         10.17
UCF             +1.86    Texas Tech       10.31
TCU             +1.51    Texas            10.35
Oklahoma        +1.31    Cincinnati       10.37
Texas Tech      +0.96    Kansas           10.59
Kansas          +0.72    Baylor           11.62
Kansas State    +0.29    BYU              11.73
Texas           +0.19    Kansas State     11.98
Oklahoma State  -0.13    UCF              12.17
West Virginia   -1.52    Iowa State       12.81

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Texas Tech      +0.49 +/- 0.47    Kansas State    +0.13 +/- 0.31
Kansas State    +0.41 +/- 0.51    West Virginia   +0.07 +/- 0.23
West Virginia   +0.27 +/- 0.35    Kansas          +0.03 +/- 0.26
UCF             +0.26 +/- 0.57    Cincinnati      -0.03 +/- 0.23
Texas           +0.14 +/- 0.44    Oklahoma        -0.05 +/- 0.19
TCU             -0.04 +/- 0.34    TCU             -0.10 +/- 0.14
Oklahoma State  -0.18 +/- 0.35    Texas           -0.11 +/- 0.23
Cincinnati      -0.26 +/- 0.44    Texas Tech      -0.22 +/- 0.26
Houston         -0.35 +/- 0.33    UCF             -0.27 +/- 0.25
Kansas          -0.39 +/- 0.49    Oklahoma State  -0.30 +/- 0.17
Baylor          -0.59 +/- 0.57    Houston         -0.52 +/- 0.15
Oklahoma        -0.80 +/- 0.39    BYU             -0.59 +/- 0.19
Iowa State      -0.85 +/- 0.51    Iowa State      -0.61 +/- 0.21
BYU             -1.11 +/- 0.43    Baylor          -0.65 +/- 0.18

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
BYU             83.63   Houston         52.40   Baylor          152.53   Houston         +20.76
Baylor          82.79   Iowa State      61.79   TCU             151.32   Iowa State      +18.00
TCU             82.01   UCF             65.06   BYU             149.74   BYU             +17.53
Iowa State      79.79   BYU             66.11   Kansas          147.39   Baylor          +13.06
Kansas          78.42   Oklahoma        66.41   Cincinnati      145.11   TCU             +12.71
Oklahoma        77.43   Texas Tech      67.00   Texas           144.05   Oklahoma        +11.03
Cincinnati      77.42   Cincinnati      67.68   Oklahoma        143.84   Cincinnati       +9.74
Texas           76.32   Texas           67.74   Texas Tech      142.94   Kansas           +9.44
Texas Tech      75.94   Kansas State    68.49   Kansas State    141.95   Texas Tech       +8.94
Kansas State    73.46   Kansas          68.97   Iowa State      141.58   Texas            +8.58
Houston         73.30   TCU             69.30   Oklahoma State  141.42   UCF              +6.89
UCF             71.94   Baylor          69.74   West Virginia   141.05   Kansas State     +4.97
Oklahoma State  71.05   Oklahoma State  70.37   UCF             137.00   Oklahoma State   +0.68
West Virginia   67.45   West Virginia   73.61   Houston         125.84   West Virginia    -6.16

Everyone is now in top half of Division I in terms of strength of schedule.
Kansas has been temporarily displaced on the top line, but should regain it
after playing in Ames on Saturday, when West Virginia faces lowly Oklahoma
State.

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
West Virginia   +7.54 ( 25)
Kansas          +7.38 ( 27)
Baylor          +6.85 ( 32)
Kansas State    +4.57 ( 59)
Houston         +4.52 ( 65)
BYU             +3.58 ( 79)
Cincinnati      +3.30 ( 87)
Oklahoma        +2.41 (107)
Texas Tech      +2.34 (109)
Texas           +2.05 (114)
TCU             +1.96 (115)
Oklahoma State  +1.85 (117)
UCF             +1.60 (125)
Iowa State      +1.11 (135)