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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Cincinnati game
- asteroid
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10 months 1 day ago #32058
by asteroid
Hard to beat a team that shoots 57 percent from behind the arc. How much of
that was pure luck and how much was lousy defense, who is to say? Topeka YMCA
games happen. Probably better that they happen on the road than at home, but
would you rather lose by a demoralizing huge amount on the road at a contender,
or lose by a small amount on the road at a bottom feeder? And will West Virginia
remain a bottom feeder once their team is whole?
Let's hope the Bearcats don't shoot 57 percent from behind the arc. Dunkel is
the most pessimistic, picking the Jayhawks to win by a mere 1.5 points. Colley
is the optimist, giving the Jayhawks a 10.6 point margin, though his ratings have
not been updated since January 14. The common opponents comparison comes in a
close second, giving Kansas a 10.0 point margin. The average of 16 predictions
is 7.2 points, with a scatter of 2.3 points.
The "newspaper standings" are more favorable for Kansas, which is currently
only a game behind front-runners Texas Tech and Kansas State, both of which came
close to also losing on Saturday, which would have created an impressive logjam
of teams with 3-2 records in the Big 12. Yet despite their glossy 4-1 conference
record, the Wildcats are projected to win only 4 or 5 more conference games, as
their schedule difficulty increases considerably. Texas Tech is a more
legitimate contender, with their Houston and BYU games in the rearview mirror.
But they get Baylor twice and Kansas once, and also have to travel to Ames.
With Cincinnati being new to the Big 12, maybe the whole "shock and awe" of
Allen Field House and the atmosphere it features will help the Jayhawks win
this game. The way things have gone so far, they can't afford to lose any
home games.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats UC KU Defensive Stats UC KU
Points/Game 78.7 79.3 Opp Points/Game 66.6 68.4
Avg Score Margin +12.1 +10.9 Opp Effective FG % 46.8 46.5
Assists/Game 16.5 20.5 Off Rebounds/Gm 11.7 7.6
Total Rebounds/Gm 41.8 36.8 Def Rebounds/Gm 26.7 25.9
Effective FG % 51.2 56.1 Blocks/Game 4.4 4.6
Off Rebound % 34.9 26.5 Steals/Game 6.3 7.3
FTA/FGA 0.297 0.322 Personal Fouls/Gm 14.2 14.6
Turnover % 13.3 14.7
My Stats Comparison KU UC
=================== ============= ============
performance +0.65 +2.04
inconsistency 11.00 10.76
trend -0.43 ± 0.55 -0.27 ± 0.50
mental toughness +0.05 ± 0.27 -0.01 ± 0.25
average total pts 147.65 145.22
Common Opponents
================
There are two common opponents, namely TCU and Oklahoma:
KU +2 TCU at home ( -1 neutral court)
UC +4 TCU at home ( +1 neutral court)
KU +1 UC at home ( -2 neutral court)
KU +12 OU at home ( +9 neutral court)
UC -4 OU at home ( -7 neutral court)
KU +19 WVU on road (+16 neutral court)
These average to a 10 point advantage for Kansas.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes John Newman III (forward)
most points Viktor Lakhin (forward)
most rebounds Aziz Bandaogo (forward)
most assists Day Day Thomas (guard)
most steals two tied
most blocks Aziz Bandaogo (forward)
most turnovers Day Day Thomas (guard)
most fouls Aziz Bandaogo (forward)
Guard CJ Frederick is out with a hamstring injury. He's fifth on the team in
minutes played and seventh in points scored.
I might take these with a grain of salt, as it appears that Greenfield has a
serious bug in their database, based on the fact that the Kansas player with the
most minutes is Charlie McCarthy with 37.00, the Kansas player with the most
points is Charlie McCarthy with 34.00, and the Kansas player with the most steals
is Charlie McCarthy with 2.00. "To err is humnan; to really screw up takes a
computer."
15-3 13-5
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Cincinnati
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Massey +8.00 76 68 77 # 5 # 19 # 51 # 88
Pomeroy +6.27 77 71 72.3 # 18 # 26 # 33 #116
Greenfield +9.00 77.5 68.5 # 17 # 21 # 28 # 44
Dunkel +1.50 77 76 # 8 # 31
Vegas (via Dunkel) +8.50 77 69
Dolphin Predictive +6.15 75 69 70.3 # 24 # 24 # 26 # 43
Real Time +9.00 80 71 71.0 # 5 # 15 # 40 # 61
Seven Overtimes +8.00 77 69 76 # 15 # 20 # 46 # 93
DPPI +5.80 76 70 66.2 # 17 # 28 # 35 # 55
ESPN BPI +7.10 74.5 # 18 # 32 # 30 # 80
Whitlock +4.27 # 22 # 42 # 28 # 61
Colley Matrix +10.59 # 4 # 23 # 55 #108
Donchess +9.00 80 71 78.8 # 8 # 28 # 27 # 83
Haslametrics +5.00 75 70 # 25 # 33
INCCStats +7.00 77 70 75 # 11 # 34
common opponents +10.00
NCAA NET # 14 # 36
LRMC # # # #
Massey composite # 8 # 34
Pomeroy offense # 26 # 68
Pomeroy defense # 26 # 22
Pomeroy tempo #129 #157
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +7.20 77.0 70.2 73.5
scatter 2.34 1.6 2.1 3.9
Here is Kansas' season, with a projected record of 22-9:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #255 North Carolina Central 99 56 +22.34 +20.66
HOME #341 Manhattan 99 61 +30.81 +7.19
NEUT # 16 Kentucky 89 84 -0.07 +5.07
Div2 Chaminade 83 56
NEUT # 17 Marquette 59 73 -0.07 -13.93
NEUT # 4 Tennessee 69 60 -4.45 +13.45
HOME #314 Eastern Illinois 71 63 +26.01 -18.01
HOME # 6 Connecticut 69 65 +0.17 +3.83
HOME #282 UMKC 88 69 +24.37 -5.37
HOME #113 Missouri 73 64 +13.90 -4.90
AWAY # 96 Indiana 75 71 +5.68 -1.68
HOME # 99 Yale 75 60 +12.20 +2.80
NEUT #148 Wichita St. 86 67 +14.26 +4.74
HOME # 24 TCU 83 81 +5.37 -3.37
AWAY # 72 UCF 60 65 +3.53 -8.53
HOME # 21 Oklahoma 78 66 +4.39 +7.61
AWAY #115 Oklahoma St. 90 66 +7.46 +16.54
AWAY #132 West Virginia 85 91 +8.99 -14.99
HOME # 33 Cincinnati 77 71 +6.27 0.723
AWAY # 12 Iowa St. 72 76 -4.40 0.339
HOME #115 Oklahoma St. 81 66 +14.46 0.914
HOME # 1 Houston 65 69 -4.46 0.337
AWAY # 56 Kansas St. 72 70 +1.88 0.570
HOME # 15 Baylor 79 75 +3.30 0.622
AWAY # 31 Texas Tech 74 75 -1.16 0.456
AWAY # 21 Oklahoma 73 75 -2.61 0.403
HOME # 46 Texas 80 72 +7.72 0.767
HOME # 10 BYU 78 76 +1.40 0.553
AWAY # 15 Baylor 75 79 -3.70 0.363
HOME # 56 Kansas St. 75 66 +8.88 0.799
AWAY # 1 Houston 61 73 -11.46 0.139
Here is Cincinnati's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #203 Illinois Chicago 69 58 +17.08 -6.08
HOME #359 Detroit Mercy 93 61 +30.44 +1.56
HOME #121 Eastern Washington 85 73 +12.37 -0.37
HOME #173 Northern Kentucky 90 66 +15.88 +8.12
HOME #122 Georgia Tech 89 54 +12.06 +22.94
AWAY #267 Howard 86 81 +13.11 -8.11
HOME #241 Florida Gulf Coast 99 62 +18.29 +18.71
AWAY # 35 Xavier 79 84 -3.43 -1.57
HOME #155 Bryant 85 53 +16.02 +15.98
NEUT # 25 Dayton 68 82 -0.82 -13.18
HOME #232 Merrimack 65 49 +18.57 -2.57
HOME #222 Stetson 83 75 +17.84 -9.84
HOME #238 Evansville 76 58 +19.50 -1.50
AWAY # 10 BYU 71 60 -8.35 +19.35
HOME # 46 Texas 73 74 +4.98 -5.98
AWAY # 15 Baylor 59 62 -6.38 +3.38
HOME # 24 TCU 81 77 +2.50 +1.50
HOME # 21 Oklahoma 65 69 +1.67 -5.67
AWAY # 18 Kansas 71 77 -6.27 0.277
HOME # 72 UCF 74 66 +7.68 0.766
AWAY #132 West Virginia 76 70 +6.12 0.718
AWAY # 31 Texas Tech 70 74 -3.83 0.359
HOME # 1 Houston 61 68 -6.93 0.256
HOME # 12 Iowa St. 72 72 -0.16 0.494
AWAY # 72 UCF 70 69 +0.68 0.526
HOME #115 Oklahoma St. 77 65 +11.65 0.865
AWAY # 24 TCU 75 79 -4.50 0.335
AWAY # 1 Houston 58 72 -13.93 0.094
HOME # 56 Kansas St. 71 65 +6.16 0.720
AWAY # 21 Oklahoma 69 74 -5.33 0.307
HOME #132 West Virginia 80 67 +13.12 0.893
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, Bayhawk, boulderhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, USAF Jayhawk, jaythawk1
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