Big 12 projection, round 5

                      Init   Rd 1   Rd 2   Rd 3   Rd 4   Rd 5
                      Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Conf.             Pred.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Recrd  Next Game  Score
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  -----  ---------  -----
#  1  Houston        14.753 14.923 13.906 13.102 13.291 13.395   3  2  @BYU  Tue  68-66  road win
# 12  Iowa State     10.283  9.500 10.640 11.064 10.363 11.068   3  2   KSU  Wed  73-63
#  9  BYU            13.331 11.595 10.811 11.086 11.754 10.996   2  3   UH   Tue  66-68
# 31  Texas Tech      8.828 10.113 10.523 10.532 10.116 10.926   4  1   bye
# 15  Baylor         10.930 11.363 11.925 11.971 11.226 10.485   3  2   bye
# 21  Oklahoma        9.775 10.625 10.049  9.582  9.673 10.451   3  2   UT   Tue  76-69
# 18  Kansas         11.129 11.165  9.953 10.509 11.149  9.975   3  2   UC   Mon  77-71
# 25  TCU             8.897  8.838  9.434 10.428 10.101  9.485   2  3  @OSU  Tue  78-72  road win
# 56  Kansas State    6.225  7.348  8.108  7.872  8.624  8.740   4  1  @ISU  Wed  63-73
# 33  Cincinnati      8.497  9.970  9.053  8.992  9.415  8.605   2  3  @KU   Mon  71-77
# 46  Texas           8.957  7.615  8.460  7.481  6.422  7.099   2  3  @OU   Tue  69-76
# 72  UCF             5.855  4.785  5.635  5.777  6.960  6.883   2  3   WVU  Tue  75-66
#131  West Virginia   3.680  3.467  2.787  3.626  3.496  4.655   2  3  @UCF  Tue  66-75
#115  Oklahoma State  4.861  4.635  4.385  3.978  3.409  3.237   0  5   TCU  Tue  72-78

Massey took honors for best prognostications in Round 5 by a hair over Seven Overtimes.
Dunkel pulled up the rear by a wide margin.  Colley retains the season lead, with
Greenfield, Vegas, and Whitlock breathing down his neck.  Dunkel is again pulling up
the rear.

Three road wins were projected for Round 5, but the expected Baylor win in Austin didn't happen,
while the unexpected Oklahoma win in Cincinnati did happen, nor did the expected Kansas win in
Morgantown happen, but the unexpected Iowa State win in Fort Worth did happen.  Completing the
trifecta, the expected BYU win in Lubbock also didn't happen.  Two road rins are projeced for
Round 6, with Houston winning in Provo, and TCU winning in Stillwater.

Road wins (10 out of  35)                    Home losses                                   RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
1 Baylor         OSU                         0 Baylor                                     +1 BU
1 BYU            UCF                         0 Houston                                    +1 ISU
1 Cincinnati     BYU                         0 Iowa State                                 +1 KU
1 Iowa State     TCU                         0 Kansas                                     +1 KSU
1 Kansas         OSU                         0 Kansas State                               +1 OU
1 Kansas State   WVU                         0 Oklahoma                                   +1 TTU
1 Oklahoma       UC                          0 Texas Tech                                  0 UH
1 Texas          UC                          1 BYU            UC                           0 BYU
1 Texas Tech     UT                          1 TCU            ISU                          0 UCF
1 UCF            UT                          1 UCF            BYU                         -1 UC
0 Houston                                    1 West Virginia  KSU                         -1 TCU
0 Oklahoma State                             2 Cincinnati     UT  OU                      -1 UT
0 TCU                                        2 Oklahoma State BU  KU                      -1 WVU 
0 West Virginia                              2 Texas          TTU UCF                     -2 OSU

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Iowa State      +5.40    Houston           7.94
BYU             +5.07    TCU               8.14
Houston         +4.17    Oklahoma State    8.36
Baylor          +3.12    West Virginia     8.53
Cincinnati      +2.06    Oklahoma          9.09
UCF             +1.94    Texas             9.45
TCU             +1.57    Texas Tech       10.23
Oklahoma        +1.22    Cincinnati       10.75
Texas Tech      +0.94    Kansas           11.00
Kansas          +0.69    Baylor           11.77
Kansas State    +0.30    BYU              11.80
Texas           +0.22    Kansas State     12.44
Oklahoma State  -0.23    UCF              12.52
West Virginia   -1.63    Iowa State       13.07

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Kansas State    +0.51 +/- 0.57    Kansas State    +0.19 +/- 0.36
Texas Tech      +0.47 +/- 0.46    West Virginia   +0.09 +/- 0.24
West Virginia   +0.37 +/- 0.39    Kansas          +0.05 +/- 0.27
UCF             +0.26 +/- 0.64    Oklahoma         0.00 +/- 0.17
TCU             +0.02 +/- 0.38    Cincinnati      -0.01 +/- 0.25
Texas           -0.22 +/- 0.44    TCU             -0.08 +/- 0.15
Oklahoma State  -0.23 +/- 0.39    Texas Tech      -0.23 +/- 0.26
Cincinnati      -0.27 +/- 0.50    Texas           -0.26 +/- 0.21
Houston         -0.42 +/- 0.36    UCF             -0.28 +/- 0.26
Kansas          -0.43 +/- 0.55    Oklahoma State  -0.30 +/- 0.17
Oklahoma        -0.53 +/- 0.40    BYU             -0.58 +/- 0.20
Baylor          -0.59 +/- 0.58    Houston         -0.59 +/- 0.15
Iowa State      -0.91 +/- 0.57    Iowa State      -0.60 +/- 0.21
BYU             -1.13 +/- 0.48    Baylor          -0.65 +/- 0.19

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
BYU             84.60   Houston         51.78   Baylor          152.53   Houston         +21.33
Baylor          82.79   Iowa State      61.40   TCU             151.78   BYU             +19.08
TCU             82.36   UCF             65.31   BYU             150.11   Iowa State      +18.58
Iowa State      79.99   BYU             65.51   Kansas          147.65   Baylor          +13.06
Kansas          78.78   Oklahoma        65.83   Cincinnati      145.22   TCU             +12.94
Oklahoma        78.50   Texas Tech      67.00   Texas           144.56   Oklahoma        +12.67
Cincinnati      77.79   Cincinnati      67.43   Oklahoma        144.33   Cincinnati      +10.36
Texas           76.29   Kansas State    68.06   Texas Tech      142.94   Kansas           +9.91
Texas Tech      75.94   Texas           68.26   Kansas State    141.78   Texas Tech       +8.94
Kansas State    73.72   Kansas          68.87   West Virginia   141.61   Texas            +8.03
Houston         73.11   TCU             69.42   Iowa State      141.39   UCF              +6.74
UCF             72.04   Baylor          69.74   Oklahoma State  141.33   Kansas State     +5.67
Oklahoma State  71.26   Oklahoma State  70.07   UCF             137.35   Oklahoma State   +1.19
West Virginia   67.82   West Virginia   73.79   Houston         124.89   West Virginia    -5.97

Everyone is now in top half of Division I in terms of strength of schedule.

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          +7.31 ( 25)
West Virginia   +6.84 ( 32)
Baylor          +6.67 ( 35)
Kansas State    +3.30 ( 75)
Houston         +3.13 ( 84)
Texas Tech      +2.27 (108)
BYU             +2.09 (111)
Cincinnati      +1.94 (115)
Oklahoma        +1.73 (119)
UCF             +1.67 (122)
TCU             +1.47 (124)
Oklahoma State  +1.11 (133)
Iowa State      +0.70 (144)
Texas           +0.61 (147)