predictions for West Virginia game

Kansas has played above expectation these last two games.  Also, Furphy
replaced Jackson as a starter these last two games.  Coincidence, or
cause and effect?

Another road game, another conference bottom feeder.  Let's hope for a
similar result.  West Virginia has played ten teams from the Top 100
and has the second-best strength of schedule in the Big 12 as a result.
But they've lost nine of those games.  The lone victory came against
Texas a week ago, and in Austin, no less.  That just reinforces the
notion that you shouldn't take any conference opponent lightly.  True,
in the latest projection, Texas was third-last, so maybe that road
victory for the Mountaineers isn't all that impressive.  After all,
they "only" played 8 points above expectation to win by 3 points.

West Virginia is the conference's most consistent team, which, oddly
enough is a statement I was also able to make about the Kansas opponent
prior to the previous game!  The Cowboys playing almost 11 point below
expectation knocked them off their perch atop the conference's consistency
rankings.  Will history repeat itself?

RealTime, with its enormous home court advantage, is the most pessimistic
of the various prognosticators, picking Kansas to win by only 2 points.
The most optimistic projections stems from the single common opponent,
which has Kansas by 17 points.  The average is 10.2 points, with a scatter
of 3.7 points.  If Edwards doesn't play, as seems likely, I would go with
the high side of a 10 point margin.

With Sagarin out of the picture, I've been looking for other prognosticators.
New to today's predictions are Dunchess, Haslametrics, and INCCStats.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      WVU     KU      Defensive Stats      WVU     KU
Points/Game         67.6    78.9     Opp Points/Game     72.0    66.9
Avg Score Margin    -4.4   +12.0     Opp Effective FG %  49.5    45.6
Assists/Game        12.2    20.4     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.4     7.8
Total Rebounds/Gm   35.1    37.7     Def Rebounds/Gm     23.1    26.5
Effective FG %      46.5    55.9     Blocks/Game          3.5     4.8
Off Rebound %       25.3    27.0     Steals/Game          4.6     7.3
FTA/FGA            0.385   0.324     Personal Fouls/Gm   14.5    14.4
Turnover %          15.4    15.0   

My Stats Comparison        KU             WVU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.58           -1.86    
inconsistency         10.62            7.74    
trend                 -0.13 ± 0.59    +0.06 ± 0.40
mental toughness      +0.07 ± 0.27    -0.02 ± 0.23         
average total pts      145.88         139.59

Common Opponents
================
There is one common opponent, namely Oklahoma:

KU  +12 OU  at home ( +9 neutral court)
WVU -14 OU  on road (-11 neutral court)
KU  +17 WVU on road (+20 neutral court)


Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Kerr Kriisa (guard)
most points        Raequan Battle (guard)
most rebounds      Jesse Edwards (center)
most assists       Kerr Kriisa (guard)
most steals        Raequan Battle (guard)
most blocks        Jesse Edwards (center)
most turnovers     Kerr Kriisa (guard)
most fouls         Jesse Edwards (center)

Center Jesse Edwards is reportedly out with a wrist injury.

I might take these with a grain of salt, as it appears that Greenfield has a
serious bug in their database, based on the fact that the Kansas player with the
most minutes is Charlie McCarthy with 37.00, the Kansas player with the most
points is Charlie McCarthy with 34.00, and the Kansas player with the most steals
is Charlie McCarthy with 2.00.  "To err is humnan; to really screw up takes a
computer."

                                                          15-2            6-11
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      West Virginia
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +6.00   74   68       70       #  4   # 19    #117   # 30
Pomeroy                +10.81   79   68       84.7     # 13   # 28    #141   # 35
Greenfield             +10.00   79   69                # 14   # 16    #126   # 72
Dunkel                 +15.50   80   65                #  6           #155
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +10.00   79   69                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +8.52   76   68       77.0     # 20   # 20    #135   # 66
Real Time               +2.00   78   76       55.3     #  2   # 11    #113   # 29 
Seven Overtimes         +7.00   75   68       82       # 19   # 35    #102   # 25
DPPI                                                   # 18   # 26    #      #    
ESPN BPI               +10.30                 82.9     # 16   # 30    #148   # 36
Whitlock                +8.34                          # 22   # 42    #156   # 12
Colley Matrix          +13.61                          #  4   # 23    #171   # 20
Donchess               +11.00   78   67       85.1     #  7   # 24    #122   # 18
Haslametrics           +12.00   78   66                # 16           #160
INCCStats              +11.00   78   67       85       # 10           #126
common opponents       +17.00
NCAA NET                                               # 11           #167
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       #  8           #145
Pomeroy offense                                        # 28           #194
Pomeroy defense                                        # 11           #114
Pomeroy tempo                                          #133           #131
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +10.21   77.6 68.3     77.8
scatter                  3.71    1.9  2.8     10.5

Here is Kansas' season, with a projected record of 23-8:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #250 North Carolina Central      99  56   +22.92   +20.08
HOME   #341 Manhattan                   99  61   +31.87    +6.13
NEUT   # 17 Kentucky                    89  84    +0.74    +4.26
Div2        Chaminade                   83  56
NEUT   # 18 Marquette                   59  73    +0.93   -14.93
NEUT   #  6 Tennessee                   69  60    -2.61   +11.61
HOME   #320 Eastern Illinois            71  63   +27.52   -19.52
HOME   #  5 Connecticut                 69  65    +1.00    +3.00
HOME   #290 UMKC                        88  69   +25.70    -6.70
HOME   #103 Missouri                    73  64   +14.21    -5.21
AWAY   # 96 Indiana                     75  71    +6.75    -2.75
HOME   #101 Yale                        75  60   +13.74    +1.26
NEUT   #145 Wichita St.                 86  67   +15.20    +3.80
HOME   # 24 TCU                         83  81    +6.11    -4.11
AWAY   # 74 UCF                         60  65    +4.68    -9.68
HOME   # 20 Oklahoma                    78  66    +5.56    +6.44
AWAY   #115 Oklahoma St.                90  66    +8.45   +15.55
AWAY   #141 West Virginia               79  68   +10.81             0.847
HOME   # 27 Cincinnati                  76  69    +6.84             0.741
AWAY   # 14 Iowa St.                    71  74    -3.22             0.380
HOME   #115 Oklahoma St.                79  64   +15.45             0.928
HOME   #  1 Houston                     65  68    -3.53             0.369
AWAY   # 55 Kansas St.                  70  68    +2.46             0.592
HOME   # 15 Baylor                      77  73    +3.84             0.642
AWAY   # 34 Texas Tech                  72  72    +0.25             0.509
AWAY   # 20 Oklahoma                    72  73    -1.44             0.446
HOME   # 48 Texas                       79  70    +8.99             0.802
HOME   #  9 BYU                         76  74    +1.75             0.566
AWAY   # 15 Baylor                      74  77    -3.16             0.383
HOME   # 55 Kansas St.                  74  64    +9.46             0.814
AWAY   #  1 Houston                     61  72   -10.53             0.160

Here is West Virginia's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #154 Missouri St.                67  59    +4.33    +3.67
HOME   #190 Monmouth                    65  73    +6.32   -14.32
HOME   #152 Jacksonville St.            70  57    +4.28    +8.72
NEUT   # 45 SMU                         58  70    -8.87    -3.13
NEUT   # 67 Virginia                    54  56    -6.03    +4.03
HOME   #305 Bellarmine                  62  58   +12.21    -8.21
HOME   # 39 St. John's                  73  79    -6.44    +0.44
HOME   # 83 Pittsburgh                  63  80    -1.74   -15.26
HOME   #105 Drexel                      66  60    +0.67    +5.33
NEUT   # 99 Massachusetts               79  87    -3.83    -4.17
HOME   #179 Radford                     65  66    +5.56    -6.56
HOME   #146 Toledo                      91  81    +4.13    +5.87
HOME   # 44 Ohio St.                    75  78    -5.26    +2.26
AWAY   #  1 Houston                     55  89   -23.75   -10.25
HOME   # 55 Kansas St.                  67  81    -4.27    -9.73
HOME   # 48 Texas                       76  73    -5.08    +8.08
AWAY   # 20 Oklahoma                    63  77   -15.54    +1.54
HOME   # 13 Kansas                      68  79   -10.81             0.153
AWAY   # 74 UCF                         66  76    -9.77             0.178
AWAY   #115 Oklahoma St.                68  74    -5.55             0.300
HOME   # 27 Cincinnati                  68  76    -7.43             0.241
HOME   #  9 BYU                         68  80   -12.58             0.117
AWAY   # 48 Texas                       68  80   -12.08             0.127
AWAY   # 24 TCU                         69  85   -15.74             0.068
HOME   # 15 Baylor                      70  80   -10.18             0.168
HOME   # 74 UCF                         69  72    -2.77             0.397
AWAY   # 14 Iowa St.                    63  80   -17.53             0.049
AWAY   # 55 Kansas St.                  63  74   -11.27             0.143
HOME   # 34 Texas Tech                  69  75    -6.47             0.270
HOME   # 24 TCU                         73  82    -8.74             0.204
AWAY   # 27 Cincinnati                  65  79   -14.43             0.086