Big 12 projection, round 4

                      Init   Rd 1   Rd 2   Rd 3   Rd 4
Pred                  Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj     Conf.             Pred.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins     Recrd  Next Game  Score
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------    -----  ---------  -----
#  1  Houston        14.753 14.923 13.906 13.102 13.291     2  2   UCF  Sat  72-54
#  9  BYU            13.331 11.595 10.811 11.086 11.754     2  2  @TTU  Sat  73-71  road win
# 14  Baylor         10.930 11.363 11.925 11.971 11.226     3  1  @UT   Sat  76-74  road win
# 13  Kansas         11.129 11.165  9.953 10.509 11.149     3  1  @WVU  Sat  78-67  road win
# 15  Iowa State     10.283  9.500 10.640 11.064 10.363     2  2  @TCU  Sat  75-76
# 33  Texas Tech      8.828 10.113 10.523 10.532 10.116     3  1   BYU  Sat  71-73
# 23  TCU             8.897  8.838  9.434 10.428 10.101     2  2   ISU  Sat  76-75
# 20  Oklahoma        9.775 10.625 10.049  9.582  9.673     2  2  @UC   Sat  70-72
# 28  Cincinnati      8.497  9.970  9.053  8.992  9.415     2  2   OU   Sat  72-70
# 54  Kansas State    6.225  7.348  8.108  7.872  8.624     3  1   OSU  Sat  70-61
# 71  UCF             5.855  4.785  5.635  5.777  6.960     2  2  @UH   Sat  54-72
# 49  Texas           8.957  7.615  8.460  7.481  6.422     1  3   BU   Sat  74-76
#140  West Virginia   3.680  3.467  2.787  3.626  3.496     1  3   KU   Sat  67-78
#115  Oklahoma State  4.861  4.635  4.385  3.978  3.409     0  4  @KSU  Sat  61-70

RealTime took honors for best prognostications in Round 4 by virtue of his enormous home
court advantage, which helped him predict the big home victories by Oklahoma, Houston,
and BYU.  Massey came in last.  Colley retains the season lead, with Seven Overtimes
pulling up the rear.

Two road wins were projected for Round 4.  One of those two happened, the other did not.
However, an unexpected road win occurred with UCF winning in Austin.  Three road wins are
projected for Round 5, with BYU winning in Lubbock, Baylor winning in Austin, and Kansas
winning in Morgantown.

Road wins ( 8 out of  28)                    Home losses                                   RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
1 Baylor         OSU                         0 Baylor                                     +1 BU
1 BYU            UCF                         0 Houston                                    +1 KU
1 Cincinnati     BYU                         0 Iowa State                                 +1 KSU
1 Kansas         OSU                         0 Kansas                                     +1 TTU
1 Kansas State   WVU                         0 Kansas State                                0 UC
1 Texas          UC                          0 Oklahoma                                    0 UH
1 Texas Tech     UT                          0 TCU                                         0 ISU
1 UCF            UT                          0 Texas Tech                                  0 OU
0 Houston                                    1 BYU            UC                           0 TCU
0 Iowa State                                 1 Cincinnati     UT                           0 BYU
0 Oklahoma                                   1 UCF            BYU                          0 UCF
0 Oklahoma State                             1 West Virginia  KSU                         -1 UT
0 TCU                                        2 Oklahoma State BU  KU                      -1 WVU 
0 West Virginia                              2 Texas          TTU UCF                     -2 OSU

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Iowa State      +5.61    West Virginia     7.83
BYU             +5.31    Houston           7.85
Houston         +4.34    TCU               8.13
Baylor          +3.06    Oklahoma State    8.76
Cincinnati      +2.05    Oklahoma          9.36
UCF             +1.96    Texas             9.64
TCU             +1.56    Texas Tech       10.33
Oklahoma        +1.32    Kansas           10.60
Texas Tech      +1.00    Cincinnati       10.77
Kansas          +0.60    Baylor           11.73
Kansas State    +0.26    BYU              11.77
Texas           +0.01    Kansas State     12.54
Oklahoma State  -0.23    UCF              12.74
West Virginia   -1.81    Iowa State       13.43

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Kansas State    +0.70 +/- 0.62    Kansas State    +0.15 +/- 0.37
Texas Tech      +0.44 +/- 0.52    Kansas          +0.07 +/- 0.26
UCF             +0.32 +/- 0.71    Cincinnati      +0.03 +/- 0.26
TCU             +0.08 +/- 0.42    Oklahoma         0.00 +/- 0.18
West Virginia   +0.07 +/- 0.40    West Virginia   -0.01 +/- 0.23
Cincinnati      -0.12 +/- 0.55    TCU             -0.06 +/- 0.15
Kansas          -0.12 +/- 0.59    Texas           -0.26 +/- 0.22
Houston         -0.30 +/- 0.39    Texas Tech      -0.30 +/- 0.26
Texas           -0.31 +/- 0.49    Oklahoma State  -0.34 +/- 0.18
Oklahoma State  -0.38 +/- 0.44    UCF             -0.39 +/- 0.30
Baylor          -0.49 +/- 0.65    BYU             -0.54 +/- 0.22
Oklahoma        -0.75 +/- 0.44    Houston         -0.59 +/- 0.14
Iowa State      -1.02 +/- 0.63    Baylor          -0.62 +/- 0.19
BYU             -1.03 +/- 0.54    Iowa State      -0.62 +/- 0.23

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
BYU             84.88   Houston         52.25   Baylor          152.81   Houston         +21.91
Baylor          83.30   Iowa State      60.88   TCU             152.18   BYU             +20.41
TCU             83.07   BYU             64.47   BYU             149.35   Iowa State      +19.41
Iowa State      80.29   UCF             65.94   Kansas          145.88   TCU             +13.97
Oklahoma        78.96   Oklahoma        65.99   Cincinnati      145.88   Baylor          +13.78
Cincinnati      78.65   Texas Tech      66.25   Oklahoma        144.94   Oklahoma        +12.97
Kansas          78.28   Cincinnati      67.24   Texas           144.35   Cincinnati      +11.41
Texas           76.47   Kansas          67.59   Kansas State    142.12   Kansas          +10.69
Texas Tech      75.51   Texas           67.88   Texas Tech      141.76   Texas Tech       +9.26
Houston         74.16   Kansas State    68.07   Oklahoma State  141.65   Texas            +8.59
Kansas State    74.04   TCU             69.10   Iowa State      141.18   UCF              +7.88
UCF             73.81   Baylor          69.52   UCF             139.75   Kansas State     +5.97
Oklahoma State  71.47   Oklahoma State  70.18   West Virginia   139.59   Oklahoma State   +1.29
West Virginia   66.56   West Virginia   73.03   Houston         126.41   West Virginia    -6.47

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          +7.17 ( 28)
West Virginia   +6.05 ( 34)
Baylor          +5.91 ( 35)
Kansas State    +3.59 ( 74)
Houston         +2.64 ( 98)
Texas Tech      +1.29 (130)
Cincinnati      +1.02 (137)
BYU             +0.99 (138)
Oklahoma        +0.35 (156)
Oklahoma State  +0.35 (158)
UCF             +0.18 (165)
TCU             +0.10 (168)
Texas           -0.78 (204)
Iowa State      -1.21 (224)