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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Oklahoma State game
- asteroid
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10 months 1 week ago #31998
by asteroid
From a conference championship perspective, Saturday's action was good news
for Jayhawk fans. Houston lost again, while Kansas won, so we've started
climbing out of the hole we had dug ourselves into. Houston is now projected
to win just 13 conference games, with Baylor second at 12 wins, and Kansas
in a multi-team tie for third with 11 wins. That's within shouting distance.
These next two games are crucial for Kansas, as they come against the two
bottom feeders in the conference. Although they are both road games, they
are also both must-wins, as the schedule gets considerably more difficult
afterwards. We don't get West Virginia in Allen, but we do get Oklahoma
State in Allen, which is, on paper, the easiest remaining game for the regular
season.
Playing in Stillwater hasn't been all that easy for Self, and I see no reason
to expect this year to be any different. The Cowboys have played just five
teams from the Top 100 and lost all five. The closest they got to any of
those was 2 points against the weakest of the five. They lost badly in their
last two games, but both were on the road. Their conference opener was at
home, and they played to 5 points of Baylor, who is currently ranked slightly
higher than Kansas, so I don't expect it to be an easy game for the Jayhawks.
Dunkel is the most optimistic, giving Kansas a 10.5 point margin. The BPI
is the most pessimistic, giving Kansas just a 4.8 point margin. The average
predicted margin is 7 points, with a scatter of 2.5 points. Oklahoma State
is the most consistent team in the Big 12, making it harder for them to
overcome the predicted margin.
What I find odd is that today's game, against one of the Big 12's two
weakest opponents, is good enough to make ESPN's main channel, whereas
the Top 10 matchup between Kansas and Oklahoma this past Saturday was
relegated to the ESPN+ streaming service. Was that deliberate to make
more money from their streaming service?
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats OSU KU Defensive Stats OSU KU
Points/Game 72.8 78.2 Opp Points/Game 68.1 67.0
Avg Score Margin +4.8 +11.2 Opp Effective FG % 47.3 45.6
Assists/Game 15.1 20.4 Off Rebounds/Gm 8.4 7.9
Total Rebounds/Gm 36.6 38.0 Def Rebounds/Gm 25.4 26.5
Effective FG % 53.6 55.2 Blocks/Game 3.3 4.6
Off Rebound % 27.5 26.9 Steals/Game 5.9 7.3
FTA/FGA 0.285 0.325 Personal Fouls/Gm 15.9 14.2
Turnover % 17.4 15.1
My Stats Comparison KU OSU
=================== ============= ============
performance +0.34 -0.09
inconsistency 10.24 7.82
trend -0.57 ± 0.62 -0.04 ± 0.44
mental toughness +0.04 ± 0.26 -0.25 ± 0.17
average total pts 145.20 140.75
Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Javon Small (guard)
most points Javon Small (guard)
most rebounds Quion Williams (guard)
most assists Javon Small (guard)
most steals Quion Williams (guard)
most blocks Brandon Garrison (center)
most turnovers Javon Small (guard)
most fouls Brandon Garrison (center)
I might take these with a grain of salt, as it appears that Greenfield has a
serious bug in their database, based on the fact that the Kansas player with the
most minutes is Charlie McCarthy with 37.00, the Kansas player with the most
points is Charlie McCarthy with 34.00, and the Kansas player with the most steals
is Charlie McCarthy with 2.00. "To err is humnan; to really screw up takes a
computer."
14-2 8-8
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Oklahoma St.
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Massey +5.00 71 66 67 # 4 # 23 # 97 # 86
Pomeroy +6.55 72 66 73.2 # 18 # 27 #108 #204
Greenfield +6.50 72.5 66 # 18 # 19 # 97 # 94
Dunkel +10.50 73 63 # 6 #110
Vegas (via Dunkel) +6.50 72 66
Dolphin Predictive +5.15 72 67 67.5 # 27 # 25 #113 #109
Real Time +9.00 82 73 73.2 # 2 # 9 #173 #242
Seven Overtimes +7.00 75 68 79 # 27 # 41 #120 # 85
DPPI +5.40 74 68 68.0 # 18 # 26 #102 #112
ESPN BPI +4.80 66.2 # 18 # 30 #110 # 88
Whitlock +5.66 # 22 # 42 #117 # 83
Colley Matrix +13.33 # 4 # 23 #168 #145
common opponents
NCAA NET # 16 # 24
LRMC # # # #
Massey composite # 8 #121
Pomeroy offense # 40 #161
Pomeroy defense # 11 # 76
Pomeroy tempo #148 #234
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +7.12 73.7 67.0 70.6
scatter 2.58 3.3 2.7 4.7
Here is Kansas' season, with a projected record of 22-9:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #253 North Carolina Central 99 56 +22.08 +20.92
HOME #342 Manhattan 99 61 +30.96 +7.04
NEUT # 19 Kentucky 89 84 +0.15 +4.85
Div2 Chaminade 83 56
NEUT # 17 Marquette 59 73 -0.07 -13.93
NEUT # 8 Tennessee 69 60 -2.90 +11.90
HOME #321 Eastern Illinois 71 63 +26.75 -18.75
HOME # 7 Connecticut 69 65 +0.67 +3.33
HOME #284 UMKC 88 69 +24.51 -5.51
HOME #105 Missouri 73 64 +13.33 -4.33
AWAY # 91 Indiana 75 71 +5.32 -1.32
HOME #102 Yale 75 60 +13.01 +1.99
NEUT #151 Wichita St. 86 67 +14.41 +4.59
HOME # 22 TCU 83 81 +5.17 -3.17
AWAY # 78 UCF 60 65 +4.49 -9.49
HOME # 20 Oklahoma 78 66 +4.60 +7.40
AWAY #108 Oklahoma St. 72 66 +6.55 0.732
AWAY #136 West Virginia 76 67 +9.55 0.817
HOME # 33 Cincinnati 75 69 +5.95 0.713
AWAY # 12 Iowa St. 67 72 -4.90 0.322
HOME #108 Oklahoma St. 76 62 +13.55 0.900
HOME # 1 Houston 63 67 -3.88 0.357
AWAY # 57 Kansas St. 69 67 +1.87 0.570
HOME # 14 Baylor 76 73 +2.48 0.592
AWAY # 30 Texas Tech 70 71 -1.36 0.449
AWAY # 20 Oklahoma 70 72 -2.40 0.410
HOME # 42 Texas 76 69 +7.15 0.750
HOME # 11 BYU 73 71 +1.75 0.566
AWAY # 14 Baylor 72 77 -4.52 0.334
HOME # 57 Kansas St. 72 64 +8.87 0.799
AWAY # 1 Houston 59 70 -10.88 0.152
Here is Oklahoma State's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #223 Abilene Christian 59 64 +10.95 -15.95
HOME #183 Sam Houston St. 85 70 +8.91 +6.09
NEUT # 88 St. Bonaventure 64 66 -1.62 -0.38
NEUT #157 Notre Dame 64 66 +3.58 -5.58
HOME #307 New Orleans 96 68 +16.44 +11.56
HOME #347 Houston Christian 92 65 +22.11 +4.89
HOME # 15 Creighton 65 79 -7.18 -6.82
AWAY #109 Southern Illinois 68 70 -3.37 +1.37
NEUT #184 Tulsa 72 57 +5.53 +9.47
HOME #203 Oral Roberts 81 60 +9.92 +11.08
HOME #200 Wofford 76 70 +9.80 -3.80
HOME #334 South Carolina St. 84 70 +19.36 -5.36
HOME #290 Chicago St. 72 53 +13.95 +5.05
HOME # 14 Baylor 70 75 -7.39 +2.39
AWAY # 30 Texas Tech 73 90 -11.10 -5.90
AWAY # 12 Iowa St. 42 66 -15.01 -8.99
HOME # 18 Kansas 66 72 -6.55 0.268
AWAY # 57 Kansas St. 62 70 -7.96 0.226
HOME # 22 TCU 71 77 -5.38 0.306
HOME #136 West Virginia 72 66 +6.22 0.722
AWAY # 18 Kansas 62 76 -13.55 0.100
HOME # 57 Kansas St. 65 66 -0.96 0.464
AWAY # 1 Houston 53 73 -20.06 0.029
AWAY # 20 Oklahoma 63 75 -12.37 0.121
HOME # 11 BYU 66 74 -8.33 0.215
AWAY # 33 Cincinnati 64 75 -11.23 0.144
HOME # 20 Oklahoma 66 72 -5.37 0.306
HOME # 78 UCF 68 67 +1.08 0.541
AWAY # 42 Texas 65 75 -9.89 0.175
HOME # 30 Texas Tech 66 70 -4.10 0.349
AWAY # 11 BYU 62 78 -15.33 0.074
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, Socalhawk, DocBlues, hoshi, jaythawk1
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- HawkErrant
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10 months 1 week ago #31999
by HawkErrant
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
What I find odd is that ESPN apparently has little flex in its scheduling once things are set.
Current year rankings, which almost always have a few surprises for everyone this time of the season, have little to do with having to schedule this year's TV coverage 6 months ago.
I'm sure long term, year to year rankings and historical match competitiveness between specific programs at specific sites are heavily weighted in making programming decisions.
KU at OKSt, where Self's KANSAS teams always have the most trouble (8-8 ) after KU @Morgantown (5-6) is almost always going to be a TV programmer's top choice guarantee until future results prove Self has gotten over his alma mater blues. (I don't include departing tu -- where Self's KANSAS squads are also 8-8 -- in this discussion as a matter of "GTHtu!" principle.)
OU had not (and still hasn't) won in AFH since 1993. That's a negative for any programmer, human or machine.
From that perspective alone I can see other games from the whole wide world of Men's College Basketball being more appealing to programmer algorithms.
I do think that what could potentially be OU's last ever appearance in AFH would have been a big positive, but maybe that "last competition" weight was shifted to the Sat Feb 17 KU in Norman 3:00 PM game, where OU is competitive? It may in fact end up being the last game the two programs play for years. And I note that the Norman game is indeed on ESPN.
To close by circling back to my opening, I am surprised that there is apparently little flex built in to the ESPN scheduling process to allow for rescheduling program platforms for surprises such as OU being ranked so highly as conference play begins.
Oh, and yes, it's true and undeniable -- we're spoiled (and loving it!)
Oh, well...
Current year rankings, which almost always have a few surprises for everyone this time of the season, have little to do with having to schedule this year's TV coverage 6 months ago.
I'm sure long term, year to year rankings and historical match competitiveness between specific programs at specific sites are heavily weighted in making programming decisions.
KU at OKSt, where Self's KANSAS teams always have the most trouble (8-8 ) after KU @Morgantown (5-6) is almost always going to be a TV programmer's top choice guarantee until future results prove Self has gotten over his alma mater blues. (I don't include departing tu -- where Self's KANSAS squads are also 8-8 -- in this discussion as a matter of "GTHtu!" principle.)
OU had not (and still hasn't) won in AFH since 1993. That's a negative for any programmer, human or machine.
From that perspective alone I can see other games from the whole wide world of Men's College Basketball being more appealing to programmer algorithms.
I do think that what could potentially be OU's last ever appearance in AFH would have been a big positive, but maybe that "last competition" weight was shifted to the Sat Feb 17 KU in Norman 3:00 PM game, where OU is competitive? It may in fact end up being the last game the two programs play for years. And I note that the Norman game is indeed on ESPN.
To close by circling back to my opening, I am surprised that there is apparently little flex built in to the ESPN scheduling process to allow for rescheduling program platforms for surprises such as OU being ranked so highly as conference play begins.
Oh, and yes, it's true and undeniable -- we're spoiled (and loving it!)
Oh, well...
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
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- asteroid
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10 months 1 week ago #32001
by asteroid
Meanwhile, football television schedules aren't set until the week before the game. So, flexible scheduling is certainly possible. Why don't they do it for basketball?
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10 months 1 week ago #32002
by HawkErrant
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
Great question, don't know the answer.
If I had to venture a guess, I would say the constraints faced for hoops programming include (but are certainly not limited to) -
More conferences and many more teams involved, so more competition for prime platform and time slots
Multiple games each week means more opportunities, but again more conferences and more demands for more exposure for their teams, and less wiggle room for ESPN to shift things around if needed as so many days of the week are already taken.
Contractual obligations with each Conference partner to have a minimum number of prime platform and time slots for each conference member, with that # varying based on a given team's market value for ESPN.
I'm sure there's a lot more.
If I had to venture a guess, I would say the constraints faced for hoops programming include (but are certainly not limited to) -
More conferences and many more teams involved, so more competition for prime platform and time slots
Multiple games each week means more opportunities, but again more conferences and more demands for more exposure for their teams, and less wiggle room for ESPN to shift things around if needed as so many days of the week are already taken.
Contractual obligations with each Conference partner to have a minimum number of prime platform and time slots for each conference member, with that # varying based on a given team's market value for ESPN.
I'm sure there's a lot more.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.