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predictions for Oklahoma State game

  • asteroid
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10 months 1 week ago #31998 by asteroid
From a conference championship perspective, Saturday's action was good news
for Jayhawk fans.  Houston lost again, while Kansas won, so we've started
climbing out of the hole we had dug ourselves into.  Houston is now projected
to win just 13 conference games, with Baylor second at 12 wins, and Kansas
in a multi-team tie for third with 11 wins.  That's within shouting distance.

These next two games are crucial for Kansas, as they come against the two
bottom feeders in the conference.  Although they are both road games, they
are also both must-wins, as the schedule gets considerably more difficult
afterwards.  We don't get West Virginia in Allen, but we do get Oklahoma
State in Allen, which is, on paper, the easiest remaining game for the regular
season.

Playing in Stillwater hasn't been all that easy for Self, and I see no reason
to expect this year to be any different.  The Cowboys have played just five
teams from the Top 100 and lost all five.  The closest they got to any of
those was 2 points against the weakest of the five.  They lost badly in their
last two games, but both were on the road.  Their conference opener was at
home, and they played to 5 points of Baylor, who is currently ranked slightly
higher than Kansas, so I don't expect it to be an easy game for the Jayhawks.

Dunkel is the most optimistic, giving Kansas a 10.5 point margin.  The BPI
is the most pessimistic, giving Kansas just a 4.8 point margin.  The average
predicted margin is 7 points, with a scatter of 2.5 points.  Oklahoma State
is the most consistent team in the Big 12, making it harder for them to
overcome the predicted margin.

What I find odd is that today's game, against one of the Big 12's two
weakest opponents, is good enough to make ESPN's main channel, whereas
the Top 10 matchup between Kansas and Oklahoma this past Saturday was
relegated to the ESPN+ streaming service.  Was that deliberate to make
more money from their streaming service?

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      OSU     KU      Defensive Stats      OSU     KU
Points/Game         72.8    78.2     Opp Points/Game     68.1    67.0
Avg Score Margin    +4.8   +11.2     Opp Effective FG %  47.3    45.6
Assists/Game        15.1    20.4     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.4     7.9
Total Rebounds/Gm   36.6    38.0     Def Rebounds/Gm     25.4    26.5
Effective FG %      53.6    55.2     Blocks/Game          3.3     4.6
Off Rebound %       27.5    26.9     Steals/Game          5.9     7.3
FTA/FGA            0.285   0.325     Personal Fouls/Gm   15.9    14.2
Turnover %          17.4    15.1   

My Stats Comparison        KU             OSU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.34           -0.09    
inconsistency         10.24            7.82    
trend                 -0.57 ± 0.62    -0.04 ± 0.44
mental toughness      +0.04 ± 0.26    -0.25 ± 0.17         
average total pts      145.20         140.75

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Javon Small (guard)
most points        Javon Small (guard)
most rebounds      Quion Williams (guard)
most assists       Javon Small (guard)
most steals        Quion Williams (guard)
most blocks        Brandon Garrison (center)
most turnovers     Javon Small (guard)
most fouls         Brandon Garrison (center)

I might take these with a grain of salt, as it appears that Greenfield has a
serious bug in their database, based on the fact that the Kansas player with the
most minutes is Charlie McCarthy with 37.00, the Kansas player with the most
points is Charlie McCarthy with 34.00, and the Kansas player with the most steals
is Charlie McCarthy with 2.00.  "To err is humnan; to really screw up takes a
computer."

                                                          14-2            8-8
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      Oklahoma St.
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +5.00   71   66       67       #  4   # 23    # 97   # 86
Pomeroy                 +6.55   72   66       73.2     # 18   # 27    #108   #204
Greenfield              +6.50   72.5 66                # 18   # 19    # 97   # 94
Dunkel                 +10.50   73   63                #  6           #110
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +6.50   72   66                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +5.15   72   67       67.5     # 27   # 25    #113   #109
Real Time               +9.00   82   73       73.2     #  2   #  9    #173   #242 
Seven Overtimes         +7.00   75   68       79       # 27   # 41    #120   # 85
DPPI                    +5.40   74   68       68.0     # 18   # 26    #102   #112 
ESPN BPI                +4.80                 66.2     # 18   # 30    #110   # 88
Whitlock                +5.66                          # 22   # 42    #117   # 83
Colley Matrix          +13.33                          #  4   # 23    #168   #145
common opponents                      
NCAA NET                                               # 16           # 24
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       #  8           #121
Pomeroy offense                                        # 40           #161
Pomeroy defense                                        # 11           # 76
Pomeroy tempo                                          #148           #234
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +7.12   73.7 67.0     70.6
scatter                  2.58    3.3  2.7      4.7

Here is Kansas' season, with a projected record of 22-9:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #253 North Carolina Central      99  56   +22.08   +20.92
HOME   #342 Manhattan                   99  61   +30.96    +7.04
NEUT   # 19 Kentucky                    89  84    +0.15    +4.85
Div2        Chaminade                   83  56
NEUT   # 17 Marquette                   59  73    -0.07   -13.93
NEUT   #  8 Tennessee                   69  60    -2.90   +11.90
HOME   #321 Eastern Illinois            71  63   +26.75   -18.75
HOME   #  7 Connecticut                 69  65    +0.67    +3.33
HOME   #284 UMKC                        88  69   +24.51    -5.51
HOME   #105 Missouri                    73  64   +13.33    -4.33
AWAY   # 91 Indiana                     75  71    +5.32    -1.32
HOME   #102 Yale                        75  60   +13.01    +1.99
NEUT   #151 Wichita St.                 86  67   +14.41    +4.59
HOME   # 22 TCU                         83  81    +5.17    -3.17
AWAY   # 78 UCF                         60  65    +4.49    -9.49
HOME   # 20 Oklahoma                    78  66    +4.60    +7.40
AWAY   #108 Oklahoma St.                72  66    +6.55             0.732
AWAY   #136 West Virginia               76  67    +9.55             0.817
HOME   # 33 Cincinnati                  75  69    +5.95             0.713
AWAY   # 12 Iowa St.                    67  72    -4.90             0.322
HOME   #108 Oklahoma St.                76  62   +13.55             0.900
HOME   #  1 Houston                     63  67    -3.88             0.357
AWAY   # 57 Kansas St.                  69  67    +1.87             0.570
HOME   # 14 Baylor                      76  73    +2.48             0.592
AWAY   # 30 Texas Tech                  70  71    -1.36             0.449
AWAY   # 20 Oklahoma                    70  72    -2.40             0.410
HOME   # 42 Texas                       76  69    +7.15             0.750
HOME   # 11 BYU                         73  71    +1.75             0.566
AWAY   # 14 Baylor                      72  77    -4.52             0.334
HOME   # 57 Kansas St.                  72  64    +8.87             0.799
AWAY   #  1 Houston                     59  70   -10.88             0.152

Here is Oklahoma State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #223 Abilene Christian           59  64   +10.95   -15.95
HOME   #183 Sam Houston St.             85  70    +8.91    +6.09
NEUT   # 88 St. Bonaventure             64  66    -1.62    -0.38
NEUT   #157 Notre Dame                  64  66    +3.58    -5.58
HOME   #307 New Orleans                 96  68   +16.44   +11.56
HOME   #347 Houston Christian           92  65   +22.11    +4.89
HOME   # 15 Creighton                   65  79    -7.18    -6.82
AWAY   #109 Southern Illinois           68  70    -3.37    +1.37
NEUT   #184 Tulsa                       72  57    +5.53    +9.47
HOME   #203 Oral Roberts                81  60    +9.92   +11.08
HOME   #200 Wofford                     76  70    +9.80    -3.80
HOME   #334 South Carolina St.          84  70   +19.36    -5.36
HOME   #290 Chicago St.                 72  53   +13.95    +5.05
HOME   # 14 Baylor                      70  75    -7.39    +2.39
AWAY   # 30 Texas Tech                  73  90   -11.10    -5.90
AWAY   # 12 Iowa St.                    42  66   -15.01    -8.99
HOME   # 18 Kansas                      66  72    -6.55             0.268
AWAY   # 57 Kansas St.                  62  70    -7.96             0.226
HOME   # 22 TCU                         71  77    -5.38             0.306
HOME   #136 West Virginia               72  66    +6.22             0.722
AWAY   # 18 Kansas                      62  76   -13.55             0.100
HOME   # 57 Kansas St.                  65  66    -0.96             0.464
AWAY   #  1 Houston                     53  73   -20.06             0.029
AWAY   # 20 Oklahoma                    63  75   -12.37             0.121
HOME   # 11 BYU                         66  74    -8.33             0.215
AWAY   # 33 Cincinnati                  64  75   -11.23             0.144
HOME   # 20 Oklahoma                    66  72    -5.37             0.306
HOME   # 78 UCF                         68  67    +1.08             0.541
AWAY   # 42 Texas                       65  75    -9.89             0.175
HOME   # 30 Texas Tech                  66  70    -4.10             0.349
AWAY   # 11 BYU                         62  78   -15.33             0.074
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  • HawkErrant
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10 months 1 week ago #31999 by HawkErrant
What I find odd is that ESPN apparently has little flex in its scheduling once things are set.

Current year rankings, which almost always have a few surprises for everyone this time of the season, have little to do with having to schedule this year's TV coverage 6 months ago.

I'm sure long term, year to year rankings and historical match competitiveness between specific programs at specific sites are heavily weighted in making programming decisions.

KU at OKSt, where Self's KANSAS teams always have the most trouble (8-8 ) after KU @Morgantown (5-6) is almost always going to be a TV programmer's top choice guarantee until future results prove Self has gotten over his alma mater blues. (I don't include departing tu -- where Self's KANSAS squads are also 8-8 -- in this discussion as a matter of "GTHtu!" principle.)

OU had not (and still hasn't) won in AFH since 1993. That's a negative for any programmer, human or machine.
From that perspective alone I can see other games from the whole wide world of Men's College Basketball being more appealing to programmer algorithms.

I do think that what could potentially be OU's last ever appearance in AFH would have been a big positive, but maybe that "last competition" weight was shifted to the Sat Feb 17 KU in Norman 3:00 PM game, where OU is competitive? It may in fact end up being the last game the two programs play for years. And I note that the Norman game is indeed on ESPN.

To close by circling back to my opening, I am surprised that there is apparently little flex built in to the ESPN scheduling process to allow for rescheduling program platforms for surprises such as OU being ranked so highly as conference play begins.

Oh, and yes, it's true and undeniable -- we're spoiled (and loving it!):woohoo:

Oh, well...;)

"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
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  • asteroid
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10 months 1 week ago #32001 by asteroid
Meanwhile, football television schedules aren't set until the week before the game. So, flexible scheduling is certainly possible. Why don't they do it for basketball?

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10 months 1 week ago #32002 by HawkErrant
Great question, don't know the answer.

If I had to venture a guess, I would say the constraints faced for hoops programming include (but are certainly not limited to) -

More conferences and many more teams involved, so more competition for prime platform and time slots

Multiple games each week means more opportunities, but again more conferences and more demands for more exposure for their teams, and less wiggle room for ESPN to shift things around if needed as so many days of the week are already taken.

Contractual obligations with each Conference partner to have a minimum number of prime platform and time slots for each conference member, with that # varying based on a given team's market value for ESPN.


I'm sure there's a lot more.

"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"

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