Big 12 projection, round 3

The victory over Oklahoma helped Kansas a bit, moving up from seventh place
into sixth place, though virtually tied for third with 11 projected conference
wins.
                      Init   Rd 1   Rd 2   Rd 3
Pred                  Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj     Conf.             Pred.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins     Recrd  Next Game  Score
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------    -----  ---------  -----
#  1  Houston        14.753 14.923 13.906 13.102     1  2   TTU  Wed  71-58
# 14  Baylor         10.930 11.363 11.925 11.971     3  0  @KSU  Tue  73-70  road win
# 12  BYU            13.331 11.595 10.811 11.086     1  2   ISU  Tue  73-69
# 13  Iowa State     10.283  9.500 10.640 11.064     2  1  @BYU  Tue  69-73
# 30  Texas Tech      8.828 10.113 10.523 10.532     3  0  @UH   Wed  58-71
# 16  Kansas         11.129 11.165  9.953 10.509     2  1  @OSU  Tue  73-66  road win
# 23  TCU             8.897  8.838  9.434 10.428     2  1  @UC   Tue  75-78
# 20  Oklahoma        9.775 10.625 10.049  9.582     1  2   WVU  Wed  79-63
# 32  Cincinnati      8.497  9.970  9.053  8.992     1  2   TCU  Tue  78-75
# 58  Kansas State    6.225  7.348  8.108  7.872     2  1   BU   Tue  70-73
# 43  Texas           8.957  7.615  8.460  7.481     1  2   UCF  Wed  74-67
# 76  UCF             5.855  4.785  5.635  5.777     1  2  @UT   Wed  67-74
#108  Oklahoma State  4.861  4.635  4.385  3.978     0  3   KU   Tue  66-73
#137  West Virginia   3.680  3.467  2.787  3.626     1  2  @OU   Wed  63-79

RealTime took honors for best prognostications in Round 3 by virtue of his enormous home
court advantage, which helped him predict the Iowa State margin over Oklahoma State much
closer than anybody else.  Dunkel pulled up the rear by a wide margin.  Colley retakes
the season lead, with Dunkel in the cellar.

Three road wins were projected for Round 3, but only one happened, with BYU surviving the
Knights.  Only two road wins are projected for Round 4, with Baylor winning in Manhattan
and Kansas winning in Stillwater.

Road wins ( 6 out of  21)                    Home losses                                   RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
1 Baylor         OSU                         0 Baylor                                     +1 BU
1 BYU            UCF                         0 Houston                                    +1 KSU
1 Cincinnati     BYU                         0 Iowa State                                 +1 TTU
1 Kansas State   WVU                         0 Kansas                                      0 UC
1 Texas          UC                          0 Kansas State                                0 UH
1 Texas Tech     UT                          0 Oklahoma                                    0 ISU
0 Houston                                    0 TCU                                         0 KU
0 Iowa State                                 0 Texas Tech                                  0 OU
0 Kansas                                     1 BYU            UC                           0 TCU
0 Oklahoma                                   1 Cincinnati     UT                           0 UT
0 Oklahoma State                             1 Oklahoma State BU                           0 BYU
0 TCU                                        1 Texas          TTU                         -1 OSU
0 UCF                                        1 UCF            BYU                         -1 UCF 
0 West Virginia                              1 West Virginia  KSU                         -1 WVU

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Iowa State      +5.82    Oklahoma State    7.82
BYU             +5.60    Houston           7.97
Houston         +4.49    West Virginia     8.07
Baylor          +3.17    TCU               8.28
Cincinnati      +2.18    Texas             9.42
UCF             +2.04    Oklahoma          9.76
TCU             +1.58    Kansas           10.24
Oklahoma        +1.36    Texas Tech       10.39
Texas Tech      +0.92    Cincinnati       10.74
Kansas          +0.34    Baylor           11.96
Kansas State    +0.12    BYU              12.13
Oklahoma State  -0.09    UCF              12.58
Texas           -0.15    Kansas State     12.77
West Virginia   -1.97    Iowa State       12.97

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Texas Tech      +0.83 +/- 0.54    Kansas State    +0.12 +/- 0.38
Kansas State    +0.72 +/- 0.69    Kansas          +0.04 +/- 0.26
TCU             +0.15 +/- 0.46    Cincinnati      +0.01 +/- 0.26
UCF             +0.05 +/- 0.78    Oklahoma         0.00 +/- 0.19
West Virginia   +0.01 +/- 0.45    West Virginia   -0.05 +/- 0.26
Oklahoma State  -0.04 +/- 0.44    TCU             -0.06 +/- 0.16
Texas           -0.06 +/- 0.53    Texas Tech      -0.16 +/- 0.34
Cincinnati      -0.08 +/- 0.60    Texas           -0.23 +/- 0.21
Baylor          -0.33 +/- 0.74    Oklahoma State  -0.25 +/- 0.17
Houston         -0.45 +/- 0.43    BYU             -0.59 +/- 0.23
Kansas          -0.57 +/- 0.62    Houston         -0.59 +/- 0.14
Iowa State      -0.80 +/- 0.70    UCF             -0.60 +/- 0.30
Oklahoma        -0.85 +/- 0.50    Baylor          -0.61 +/- 0.21
BYU             -1.36 +/- 0.58    Iowa State      -0.61 +/- 0.25

Total points have generally been going down, though Texas did go up a bit.  So, if you're a
betting person, take the under more often than not.  The 68 points that TCU hung on Houston
is the high water mark for the Houston defense so far this season.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
BYU             84.86   Houston         52.03   Baylor          154.20   Houston         +22.06
Baylor          84.47   Iowa State      59.36   TCU             151.81   Iowa State      +21.34
TCU             83.34   BYU             63.89   BYU             148.75   BYU             +20.97
Iowa State      80.70   Texas Tech      65.69   Oklahoma        145.25   TCU             +14.88
Oklahoma        79.19   UCF             65.72   Kansas          145.20   Baylor          +14.73
Cincinnati      78.61   Oklahoma        66.06   Cincinnati      145.12   Oklahoma        +13.12
Kansas          77.38   Cincinnati      66.52   Texas           144.12   Cincinnati      +12.09
Texas           76.92   Texas           67.20   Kansas State    142.75   Texas Tech      +11.06
Texas Tech      76.75   Kansas          67.82   Texas Tech      142.44   Texas            +9.72
Kansas State    74.53   Kansas State    68.22   Oklahoma State  140.75   Kansas           +9.57
Houston         74.09   TCU             68.47   Iowa State      140.06   UCF              +7.77
UCF             73.48   Oklahoma State  68.83   West Virginia   139.56   Kansas State     +6.31
Oklahoma State  71.92   Baylor          69.73   UCF             139.20   Oklahoma State   +3.09
West Virginia   66.67   West Virginia   72.89   Houston         126.12   West Virginia    -6.22

Well, at least everyone is out of the 300s in strength of schedule.

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          +6.89 ( 27)
West Virginia   +5.30 ( 43)
Baylor          +4.56 ( 54)
Kansas State    +2.72 ( 87)
Houston         +2.25 ( 97)
Oklahoma        +0.60 (143)
Cincinnati      +0.17 (155)
Texas Tech      -0.27 (177)
BYU             -0.36 (180)
Oklahoma State  -1.11 (209)
UCF             -1.14 (210)
Texas           -1.29 (219)
TCU             -1.43 (231)
Iowa State      -2.86 (280)