predictions for Oklahoma game

If you look at that one game in isolation, a statistician would say "Hey,
UCF had a 30 to 40 percent chance of winning, so it's not that surprising
that they actually won the game."  If you look at it from the University's
perspective, you might think that there is only so much basketball karma
to spread around, and on Wednesday it was the women's team that had it,
knocking off a highly ranked Baylor squad.  But if you look at it from
the perspective of trying to win the Big 12 conference, starting out 3.6
projected wins behind Houston, you have to win some of those close games
to cut into that deficit, and the Jayhawks failed to do so.  Now the
projected conference record is just 10-8, whereas Houston's projected
record is 14-4.  We do play Houston twice, so half of that deficit in
under direct control, but we need to win four toss-up games to make up
the rest of that difference.  As I said last time, I wouldn't want to
hang my hat on just one conference game, in which UCF looked bad; it
will have to wait until later in the season to find out just how good
or bad the Knights are.  How big an effect Dickinson's knee had is also
unclear.  Looking baffled by the zone is a correctable problem, however.
Developing the bench is more challenging.  Rumor has it that Furphy will
start instead of Jackson against Oklahoma.

At least we're back in the friendly confines of Allen Field House,
whereas Houston remains on the road against a decent TCU team.
Oklahoma is looking a lot stronger this season compared to last season.
Their two losses have come against North Carolina on a neutral court and
on the road to TCU.  They've beaten Top 100 opponents Iowa State,
Providence, Iowa, USC, and Arkansas.  Not too shabby.  Pomeroy offense
ratings are virtually identical, as are the defense ratings.  Curiously,
Pomeroy has Kansas with a significantly higher tempo rating than Oklahoma,
yet both teams average 145 total point games.  Trends are similar; mental
toughness ratings are similar.  Pomeroy has the teams ranked adjacent to
one another.  One might expect it to be a toss-up game on a neutral court.
We will play in Norman later in the season, and we're currently projected
to lose that game by 3 points.  But in The Phog, we're favored by 4.
Wait a minute, as cold as it is forecast to be, wouldn't Phog be ice
crystals?  Lucky we're indoors; I pity those poor Chiefs fans.

Dunkel is the most optimistic of the usual prognosticators, picking
Kansas to win by 10.5 points.  The pessimist is the DPPI, which has
the Jayhawks winning by only 2.6 points.  The average is 5.8 points,
with a scatter of 2.1 points.

I've been waiting for Dunkel, who finally posted his prediction.  Now
it's time to get some shuteye before tip-off.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      OU      KU      Defensive Stats      OU      KU
Points/Game         81.0    78.2     Opp Points/Game     64.3    67.1
Avg Score Margin   +16.7   +11.1     Opp Effective FG %  44.3    45.7
Assists/Game        15.0    20.6     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.1     7.9
Total Rebounds/Gm   38.3    38.0     Def Rebounds/Gm     25.7    26.5
Effective FG %      56.4    55.9     Blocks/Game          3.8     4.4
Off Rebound %       31.4    27.2     Steals/Game          7.0     7.3
FTA/FGA            0.335   0.329     Personal Fouls/Gm   15.3    14.2
Turnover %          16.2    15.9   

My Stats Comparison        KU             OU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.36           +1.40    
inconsistency         10.42            9.99    
trend                 -0.95 ± 0.66    -0.76 ± 0.58
mental toughness       0.00 ± 0.27    +0.09 ± 0.21         
average total pts      145.29         145.33

Common Opponents
================
There is one common opponent, namely TCU:

KU   +2 TCU at home ( -1 neutral court)
OU   -9 TCU on road ( -6 neutral court)
KU   +8 OU  at home ( +5 neutral court)

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Javian McMollum (guard)
most points        Javian McMollum (guard)
most rebounds      Sam Godwin (forward)
most assists       Milos Uzan (guard)
most steals        Otega Oweh (guard)
most blocks        Jalon Moore (forward)
most turnovers     Javian McMollum (guard)
most fouls         Otega Oweh (guard)

I might take these with a grain of salt, as it appears that Greenfield has a
serious bug in their database, based on the fact that the Kansas player with the
most minutes is Charlie McCarthy with 37.00, the Kansas player with the most
points is Charlie McCarthy with 34.00, and the Kansas player with the most steals
is Charlie McCarthy with 2.00.  "To err is humnan; to really screw up takes a
computer."

                                                          13-2           13-2
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Oklahoma
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +6.00   73   67       72       #  5   # 21    # 18   # 74
Pomeroy                 +3.98   73   69       64.7     # 19   # 33    # 20   #236
Greenfield              +6.50   74.5 68                # 19   # 19    # 22   # 35
Dunkel                 +10.50   77   67                #  5           # 65
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +6.50   74   68                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +4.47   74   69       65.1     # 33   # 28    # 21   # 34
Real Time               +6.00   80   74       67.1     #  2   # 16    # 14   #303 
Seven Overtimes         +5.00   76   71       65       # 40   # 45    # 37   #193
DPPI                    +2.60   74   71       58.2     # 22   # 31    # 26   #118 
ESPN BPI                +5.20                 69.1     # 18   # 32    # 25   # 83
Whitlock                +3.22                          # 18   # 38    # 16   #102
Colley Matrix           +7.78                          #  2   # 24    # 18   #204
common opponents        +8.00         
NCAA NET                                               # 16           # 24
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       #  6           # 12
Pomeroy offense                                        # 42           # 44
Pomeroy defense                                        # 12           # 15
Pomeroy tempo                                          #144           #191
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +5.83   75.1 69.3     65.9
scatter                  2.14    2.3  2.3      4.3

Here is Kansas' season, with a projected record of 22-9:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #251 North Carolina Central      99  56   +21.85   +21.15
HOME   #341 Manhattan                   99  61   +30.36    +7.64
NEUT   # 16 Kentucky                    89  84    -0.60    +5.60
Div2        Chaminade                   83  56
NEUT   # 18 Marquette                   59  73    -0.07   -13.93
NEUT   #  6 Tennessee                   69  60    -3.63   +12.63
HOME   #320 Eastern Illinois            71  63   +26.45   -18.45
HOME   #  5 Connecticut                 69  65    -0.01    +4.01
HOME   #275 UMKC                        88  69   +23.16    -4.16
HOME   #104 Missouri                    73  64   +12.88    -3.88
AWAY   # 87 Indiana                     75  71    +4.83    -0.83
HOME   #108 Yale                        75  60   +13.08    +1.92
NEUT   #135 Wichita St.                 86  67   +13.09    +5.91
HOME   # 29 TCU                         83  81    +5.41    -3.41
AWAY   # 77 UCF                         60  65    +4.13    -9.13
HOME   # 20 Oklahoma                    73  69    +3.98             0.647
AWAY   #101 Oklahoma St.                73  67    +5.62             0.702
AWAY   #143 West Virginia               76  67    +9.53             0.816
HOME   # 32 Cincinnati                  76  70    +6.05             0.716
AWAY   # 15 Iowa St.                    69  74    -4.56             0.333
HOME   #101 Oklahoma St.                76  64   +12.62             0.884
HOME   #  1 Houston                     63  68    -4.54             0.334
AWAY   # 59 Kansas St.                  70  68    +1.67             0.563
HOME   # 14 Baylor                      77  75    +1.91             0.572
AWAY   # 24 Texas Tech                  71  73    -2.07             0.422
AWAY   # 20 Oklahoma                    70  73    -3.02             0.388
HOME   # 33 Texas                       75  69    +6.24             0.722
HOME   # 12 BYU                         74  73    +1.24             0.547
AWAY   # 14 Baylor                      73  79    -5.09             0.315
HOME   # 59 Kansas St.                  73  65    +8.67             0.794
AWAY   #  1 Houston                     60  71   -11.54             0.138

Here is Oklahoma's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #313 Central Michigan            89  59   +25.60    +4.40
HOME   #362 Mississippi Valley St.      82  43   +36.18    +2.82
HOME   #222 Texas St.                   93  54   +19.42   +19.58
HOME   #303 UT Rio Grande Valley        90  66   +26.54    -2.54
NEUT   # 45 Iowa                        79  67    +3.80    +8.20
NEUT   # 70 USC                         72  70    +6.30    -4.30
HOME   #353 Arkansas Pine Bluff        107  86   +33.44   -12.44
HOME   # 42 Providence                  72  51    +6.75   +14.25
NEUT   # 79 Arkansas                    79  70    +7.18    +1.82
HOME   #233 Green Bay                   81  47   +19.28   +14.72
NEUT   #  9 North Carolina              69  81    -3.64    -8.36
HOME   #342 Central Arkansas            88  72   +29.60   -13.60
HOME   #194 Monmouth                    72  56   +18.68    -2.68
HOME   # 15 Iowa St.                    71  63    +1.96    +6.04
AWAY   # 29 TCU                         71  80    -2.12    -6.88
AWAY   # 19 Kansas                      69  73    -3.98             0.353
HOME   #143 West Virginia               79  63   +15.92             0.934
AWAY   # 32 Cincinnati                  72  73    -1.47             0.445
HOME   # 33 Texas                       75  69    +5.74             0.706
HOME   # 24 Texas Tech                  73  69    +4.44             0.663
AWAY   # 59 Kansas St.                  69  68    +1.14             0.543
AWAY   # 77 UCF                         72  68    +3.56             0.632
HOME   # 12 BYU                         73  72    +0.78             0.529
HOME   #101 Oklahoma St.                76  64   +12.06             0.873
AWAY   # 14 Baylor                      73  78    -5.56             0.300
HOME   # 19 Kansas                      73  70    +3.02             0.612
AWAY   #101 Oklahoma St.                72  67    +5.06             0.684
AWAY   # 15 Iowa St.                    68  73    -5.04             0.317
HOME   #  1 Houston                     62  67    -4.91             0.321
HOME   # 32 Cincinnati                  75  70    +5.53             0.699
AWAY   # 33 Texas                       71  72    -1.26             0.453