Big 12 projection, round 2

The loss by the Jayhawks in Orlando has taken its toll in the projected standings,
with Kansas falling to seventh place.

                      Init   Rd 1   Rd 2
Pred                  Proj   Proj   Proj     Conf.             Pred.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins     Recrd  Next Game  Score
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------    -----  ---------  -----
#  1  Houston        14.753 14.923 13.906     1  1  @TCU  Sat  74-67  road win
# 14  Baylor         10.930 11.363 11.925     2  0   UC   Sat  81-74
# 12  BYU            13.331 11.595 10.811     0  2  @UCF  Sat  75-69  road win
# 15  Iowa State     10.283  9.500 10.640     1  1   OSU  Sat  77-63
# 25  Texas Tech      8.828 10.113 10.523     2  0   KSU  Sat  73-66
# 20  Oklahoma        9.775 10.625 10.049     1  1  @KU   Sat  69-73
# 19  Kansas         11.129 11.165  9.953     1  1   OU   Sat  73-69
# 27  TCU             8.897  8.838  9.434     1  1   UH   Sat  67-74
# 32  Cincinnati      8.497  9.970  9.053     1  1  @BU   Sat  74-81
# 34  Texas           8.957  7.615  8.460     1  1  @WVU  Sat  75-69  road win
# 57  Kansas State    6.225  7.348  8.108     2  0  @TTU  Sat  66-73
# 79  UCF             5.855  4.785  5.635     1  1   BYU  Sat  69-75
#104  Oklahoma State  4.861  4.635  4.385     0  2  @ISU  Sat  63-77
#145  West Virginia   3.680  3.467  2.787     0  2   UT   Sat  69-75

Dunkel took honors for best prognostications in Round 2; Whitlock edged out Pomeroy for last place.
Dunkel takes the season lead with RealTime pulling up the rear.

Three road wins were projected for Round 2, but only one of those three happened, plus a
relatively unexpected one by Texas in Cincinnati.  Three road wins are projected for Round 3,
with Houston winning in Fort Worth, BYU winning in Orlando, and Texas winning in Morgantown.

Road wins ( 5 out of  14)                    Home losses                                   RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
1 Baylor         OSU                         0 Baylor                                     +1 BU
1 Cincinnati     BYU                         0 Houston                                    +1 KSU
1 Kansas State   WVU                         0 Iowa State                                 +1 TTU
1 Texas          UC                          0 Kansas                                      0 UC
1 Texas Tech     UT                          0 Kansas State                                0 UH
0 BYU                                        0 Oklahoma                                    0 ISU
0 Houston                                    0 TCU                                         0 KU
0 Iowa State                                 0 Texas Tech                                  0 OU
0 Kansas                                     0 UCF                                         0 TCU
0 Oklahoma                                   1 BYU            UC                           0 UCF
0 Oklahoma State                             1 Cincinnati     UT                           0 UT
0 TCU                                        1 Oklahoma State BU                          -1 BYU
0 UCF                                        1 Texas          TTU                         -1 OSU 
0 West Virginia                              1 West Virginia  KSU                         -1 WVU

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Iowa State      +6.21    Oklahoma State    7.56
BYU             +5.91    West Virginia     7.79
Houston         +4.63    Houston           7.91
Baylor          +3.28    TCU               8.42
Cincinnati      +2.19    Texas             9.36
UCF             +2.13    Oklahoma          9.74
TCU             +1.61    Kansas           10.28
Oklahoma        +1.39    Texas Tech       10.59
Texas Tech      +0.97    Cincinnati       11.13
Kansas          +0.37    Baylor           12.10
Kansas State    +0.04    BYU              12.58
Oklahoma State  -0.10    Iowa State       13.12
Texas           -0.13    Kansas State     13.15
West Virginia   -2.26    UCF              13.31

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Texas Tech      +1.18 +/- 0.57    Oklahoma        +0.06 +/- 0.21
Kansas State    +0.66 +/- 0.79    Kansas State    +0.05 +/- 0.43
Oklahoma State  +0.21 +/- 0.46    Cincinnati      -0.02 +/- 0.30
TCU             +0.13 +/- 0.52    Kansas          -0.03 +/- 0.27
UCF             +0.13 +/- 0.92    TCU             -0.09 +/- 0.18
Texas           +0.09 +/- 0.58    Texas Tech      -0.11 +/- 0.35
Cincinnati      -0.14 +/- 0.69    West Virginia   -0.12 +/- 0.25
Baylor          -0.15 +/- 0.83    Oklahoma State  -0.14 +/- 0.19
Houston         -0.26 +/- 0.49    Texas           -0.22 +/- 0.21
West Virginia   -0.31 +/- 0.48    BYU             -0.55 +/- 0.25
Oklahoma        -0.72 +/- 0.57    Baylor          -0.57 +/- 0.21
Iowa State      -0.96 +/- 0.77    Houston         -0.60 +/- 0.16
Kansas          -0.97 +/- 0.65    Iowa State      -0.63 +/- 0.24
BYU             -1.43 +/- 0.67    UCF             -0.71 +/- 0.34

Just a reminder that the avergae offense, defnese, and scoring margins have been adjusted for
home court advantage.  Total points is unaffected, as what you lose in offense you gain in
defense and vice versa, so the adjustments cancel out when computing total points.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Baylor          86.20   Houston         51.08   Baylor          156.57   Houston         +23.37
BYU             86.20   Iowa State      60.40   TCU             152.93   BYU             +21.80
TCU             84.48   BYU             64.40   BYU             150.60   Iowa State      +21.40
Iowa State      81.80   Oklahoma        65.38   Cincinnati      146.73   TCU             +16.03
Oklahoma        79.95   UCF             65.79   Oklahoma        145.33   Baylor          +15.82
Cincinnati      79.80   Texas Tech      66.02   Kansas          145.29   Oklahoma        +14.57
Texas Tech      77.98   Texas           66.73   Kansas State    144.33   Cincinnati      +12.87
Kansas          77.46   Cincinnati      66.93   Texas Tech      144.00   Texas Tech      +11.97
Texas           77.07   Kansas          67.82   Texas           143.80   Texas           +10.33
Kansas State    75.45   TCU             68.45   Oklahoma State  142.93   Kansas           +9.64
UCF             74.71   Kansas State    68.88   Iowa State      142.20   UCF              +8.93
Houston         74.45   Oklahoma State  69.13   UCF             140.50   Kansas State     +6.57
Oklahoma State  73.80   Baylor          70.38   West Virginia   138.93   Oklahoma State   +4.67
West Virginia   66.17   West Virginia   72.77   Houston         125.53   West Virginia    -6.60

Well, at least everyone is out of the 300s in strength of schedule.

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          +6.25 ( 30)
West Virginia   +4.84 ( 51)
Baylor          +3.68 ( 69)
Kansas State    +1.75 (111)
Houston         +0.09 (168)
Texas Tech      -0.83 (201)
Oklahoma        -1.61 (241)
Cincinnati      -1.74 (247)
BYU             -1.78 (249)
Texas           -2.22 (262)
Oklahoma State  -2.53 (275)
UCF             -2.81 (283)
TCU             -3.34 (297)
Iowa State      -3.40 (299)