predictions for UCF game

Would you believe it's only the second true road game this season?
And we're already into January!

Kansas played below expectation (again) in the opener, though in the
single digits, so the Jayhawks' consistency has been improving, and
has been remarkable these last seven games.  But it took a former
Jayhawk to help Kansas win the game.  UCF is ranked a fair bit lower
than TCU, so hopefully there will be more breathing room this time
around, but it's a road game in an unfamiliar venue, so who knows?

Only one of the usual prognosticators is picking Central Florida,
namely RealTime, which uses an enormous home court advantage.  Had
he used a more normal home court advantage, the sign would have
flipped on that prediction.  Colley is the most optimistic with a
predicted margin of a bit over 8 points, or a three possession game.

The Knights played only two non-conference opponents from the Top 100,
losing both.  Their conference opener was in Manhattan, and they were
embarrassed.  These opponents who play such weak non-conference
schedules are hard to predict, and I'd hate to hang my hat on a
single conference game, but this game just feels like it will be
easier than the predicted margins would suggest.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      UCF     KU      Defensive Stats      UCF     KU
Points/Game         76.5    79.6     Opp Points/Game     65.2    67.2
Avg Score Margin   +11.4   +12.4     Opp Effective FG %  44.8    45.5
Assists/Game        12.8    20.7     Off Rebounds/Gm     11.3     7.9
Total Rebounds/Gm   40.5    38.5     Def Rebounds/Gm     25.0    27.1
Effective FG %      49.0    55.8     Blocks/Game          5.6     4.6
Off Rebound %       33.0    27.1     Steals/Game          9.5     7.4
FTA/FGA            0.360   0.335     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.9    14.2
Turnover %          15.1    15.3   

My Stats Comparison        KU            UCF
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.13           +2.11    
inconsistency         10.22           13.42    
trend                 -0.86 ± 0.75    -0.19 ± 1.04
mental toughness      +0.04 ± 0.27    -0.88 ± 0.33         
average total pts      146.85         141.69

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.  Not much of a surprise, considering how weak a
schedule UCF has played.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Jaylin Sellers (guard)
most points        Jaylin Sellers (guard)
most rebounds      Ibrahima Diallo (forward)
most assists       Darius Johnson (guard)
most steals        Darius Johnson (guard)
most blocks        Ibrahima Diallo (forward)
most turnovers     Darius Johnson (guard)
most fouls         Omar Payne (forward)

I might take these with a grain of salt, as it appears that Greenfield has a
serious bug in their database, based on the fact that the Kansas player with the
most minutes is Charlie McCarthy with 37.00, the Kansas player with the most
points is Charlie McCarthy with 34.00, and the Kansas player with the most steals
is Charlie McCarthy with 2.00.  "To err is humnan; to really screw up takes a
computer."

                                                          13-1           9-4
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas          UCF
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +5.00   72   67       69       #  3   # 26    # 86   #190
Pomeroy                 +6.11   76   70       71.8     # 16   # 41    # 86   #312
Greenfield              +7.00   75   68                # 17   # 20    # 75   #117
Dunkel                  +2.50   76   74                #  5           # 65
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +6.50   75   69                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +3.60   73   69       62.3     # 27   # 25    # 72   #131
Real Time               -2.00   76   78       45.9     #  2   # 17    # 81   # 80 
Seven Overtimes         +2.00   74   72       68       # 36   # 44    # 80   #313
DPPI                    +2.70   73.5 71       57.3     # 19   # 26    # 88   #249 
ESPN BPI                +1.20                 54.5     # 17   # 45    # 64   #254
Whitlock                +3.52                          # 18   # 38    # 85   #114
Colley Matrix           +8.23                          #  2   # 24    # 83   #153
common opponents                      
NCAA NET                                               # 11           # 80
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       #  6           # 86
Pomeroy offense                                        # 36           #182
Pomeroy defense                                        #  8           # 25
Pomeroy tempo                                          #110           # 60
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +3.86   74.5 70.9     61.3
scatter                  2.87    1.5  3.4      9.3

Here is Kansas' season, with a projected record of 23-8:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #247 North Carolina Central      99  56   +23.21   +19.79
HOME   #340 Manhattan                   99  61   +31.76    +6.24
NEUT   # 18 Kentucky                    89  84    +0.23    +4.77
Div2        Chaminade                   83  56
NEUT   # 15 Marquette                   59  73    -0.22   -13.78
NEUT   #  5 Tennessee                   69  60    -3.12   +12.12
HOME   #306 Eastern Illinois            71  63   +26.65   -18.65
HOME   #  6 Connecticut                 69  65    +0.99    +3.01
HOME   #270 UMKC                        88  69   +24.28    -5.28
HOME   #104 Missouri                    73  64   +13.96    -4.96
AWAY   # 93 Indiana                     75  71    +6.61    -2.61
HOME   #107 Yale                        75  60   +13.87    +1.13
NEUT   #133 Wichita St.                 86  67   +14.19    +4.81
HOME   # 29 TCU                         83  81    +6.87    -4.87
AWAY   # 86 UCF                         76  70    +6.11             0.718
HOME   # 20 Oklahoma                    75  70    +4.49             0.664
AWAY   #102 Oklahoma St.                75  68    +6.76             0.739
AWAY   #142 West Virginia               78  67   +10.82             0.847
HOME   # 32 Cincinnati                  78  71    +7.13             0.750
AWAY   # 17 Iowa St.                    71  74    -3.43             0.373
HOME   #102 Oklahoma St.                78  65   +13.76             0.903
HOME   #  1 Houston                     65  69    -3.70             0.363
AWAY   # 54 Kansas St.                  72  69    +2.62             0.598
HOME   # 13 Baylor                      79  76    +2.72             0.601
AWAY   # 26 Texas Tech                  73  74    -0.92             0.465
AWAY   # 20 Oklahoma                    71  74    -2.51             0.406
HOME   # 39 Texas                       78  70    +7.38             0.757
HOME   # 11 BYU                         76  73    +2.20             0.582
AWAY   # 13 Baylor                      76  80    -4.28             0.343
HOME   # 54 Kansas St.                  75  66    +9.62             0.819
AWAY   #  1 Houston                     62  72   -10.70             0.156

Here is UCF's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #259 FIU                         85  62   +15.54    +7.46
AWAY   # 47 Miami FL                    72  88    -7.69    -8.31
HOME   #239 Cal St. Fullerton           72  44   +13.33   +14.67
NEUT   #140 South Dakota St.            83  80    +5.09    -2.09
NEUT   #118 Charlotte                   74  71    +3.07    -0.07
HOME   #190 Stetson                     82  85   +11.31   -14.31
HOME   #145 Lipscomb                    72  57    +8.92    +6.08
HOME   #289 Jacksonville                94  52   +17.26   +24.74
HOME   # 83 Mississippi                 68  70    +3.22    -5.22
HOME   #232 Maine                       74  51   +13.09    +9.91
HOME   #334 Florida A&M                 69  56   +21.75    -8.75
HOME   #329 Bethune Cookman             98  54   +22.17   +21.83
AWAY   # 54 Kansas St.                  52  77    -6.49   -18.51
HOME   # 16 Kansas                      70  76    -6.11             0.282
HOME   # 11 BYU                         70  77    -7.41             0.242
AWAY   # 39 Texas                       68  77    -8.90             0.200
AWAY   #  1 Houston                     56  76   -19.81             0.031
HOME   #142 West Virginia               76  67    +8.71             0.795
AWAY   # 32 Cincinnati                  68  78    -9.43             0.186
HOME   # 13 Baylor                      73  80    -6.72             0.263
HOME   # 20 Oklahoma                    69  74    -4.89             0.322
AWAY   # 26 Texas Tech                  67  77   -10.11             0.170
AWAY   # 11 BYU                         66  81   -14.41             0.087
HOME   # 32 Cincinnati                  72  74    -2.43             0.409
AWAY   #142 West Virginia               72  70    +1.71             0.564
HOME   # 26 Texas Tech                  70  73    -3.11             0.384
AWAY   #102 Oklahoma St.                69  72    -2.35             0.412
HOME   # 17 Iowa St.                    68  74    -6.03             0.284
HOME   #  1 Houston                     59  72   -12.81             0.113
AWAY   # 29 TCU                         72  82    -9.99             0.172