Big 12 project, round 1

Kansas picked up about a quarter of a projected win by converting a roughly 75 percent chance
of winning into an actual victory, but then slipped in the ratings because they didn't beat the
spread, so they lost almost all that they gained.  Meanwhile, Baylor's road win propelled the
Bears past the Jayhawks into third place.  BYU lost not only the bulk of a projected win, but
also a lot in the ratings, which cost them another large fraction of a projected win, dropping
into a distant second place, barely in front of Baylor, whom they play next, and in Waco.
Texas Tech and Cincinnati, both surprise winners, moved up considerably.  Due to the rounding,
we're at 125.94 cumulative wins (should be 126 exactly).

                      Init   Rd 1
Pred                  Proj   Proj     Conf.             Pred.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins     Recrd  Next Game  Score
----  -------------- ------ ------    -----  ---------  -----
#  1  Houston        14.753 14.923     1  0  @ISU Tue   71-66  road win
#  9  BYU            13.331 11.595     0  1  @BU  Tue   78-80
# 13  Baylor         10.930 11.363     1  0   BYU Tue   80-78
# 16  Kansas         11.129 11.165     1  0  @UCF Wed   77-70  road win
# 20  Oklahoma        9.775 10.625     1  0  @TCU Wed   76-78
# 27  Texas Tech      8.828 10.113     1  0   OSU Tue   75-65
# 28  Cincinnati      8.497  9.970     1  0   UT  Tue   77-73
# 19  Iowa State     10.283  9.500     0  1   UH  Tue   66-71
# 30  TCU             8.897  8.838     0  1   OU  Wed   78-76
# 39  Texas           8.957  7.615     0  1  @UC  Tue   73-77
# 60  Kansas State    6.225  7.348     1  0  @WVU Tue   70-67  road win
# 87  UCF             5.855  4.785     0  1   KU  Wed   70-77
# 95  Oklahoma State  4.861  4.635     0  1  @TTU Tue   65-75
#135  West Virginia   3.680  3.467     0  1   KSU Tue   67-70

Colley took honors for best prognostications in Round 1, though it was generally a bad round for
everybody.  Last season, the average prediction error was at best 9 points, whereas it was more
like 12 points for Round 1 this season.  Real Time pulled up the rear.  How long before he realizes
that the homecourt advantage is not 8 points?  Maybe he's heard that the homecourt advantage is
8 points, but he's using that value improperly.  For example, a home court advantage of 4 points,
which is not far from the truth, results in an 8 point change when you swap venues.  Maybe that's
why he's using 8 points, but improperly applying it to both teams, resulting in a 16 point change
that results from a swap of venue.

Only one road win had been projected for Round 1, namely Baylor over Oklahoma State, and the
Bears needed overtime to accomplish that feat.  Unexpected road wins occurred in Austin, where
Texas Tech pulled off an upset, more notably for the margin of victory, and also in Provo,
where Cincinnati surprised a high-flying BYU squad.  Three road wins are projected for Round 2,
with Houston winning in Ames, Kansas winning in Orlando, and Kansas State winning in Morgantown.

Road wins ( 3 out of   7)                    Home losses                                   RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
1 Baylor         OSU                         0 Baylor                                     +1 BU
1 Cincinnati     BYU                         0 Cincinnati                                 +1 UC
1 Texas Tech     UT                          0 Houston                                    +1 TTU
0 BYU                                        0 Iowa State                                  0 UH
0 Houston                                    0 Kansas                                      0 ISU
0 Iowa State                                 0 Kansas State                                0 KU
0 Kansas                                     0 Oklahoma                                    0 KSU
0 Kansas State                               0 TCU                                         0 OU
0 Oklahoma                                   0 Texas Tech                                  0 TCU
0 Oklahoma State                             0 UCF                                         0 UCF
0 TCU                                        0 West Virginia                               0 WVU
0 Texas                                      1 BYU            UC                          -1 BYU
0 UCF                                        1 Oklahoma State BU                          -1 OSU 
0 West Virginia                              1 Texas          TTU                         -1 UT

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Iowa State      +6.56    Houston           7.28    
BYU             +6.19    West Virginia     7.65    
Houston         +4.46    Oklahoma State    7.73    
Baylor          +3.36    TCU               8.39    
Cincinnati      +2.26    Texas             9.65    
UCF             +2.16    Oklahoma          9.69    
TCU             +1.57    Kansas           10.30    
Oklahoma        +1.32    Texas Tech       10.95    
Texas Tech      +0.82    Cincinnati       11.45    
Kansas          +0.09    Baylor           12.19    
Oklahoma State  -0.14    BYU              12.47    
Kansas State    -0.15    Kansas State     13.38    
Texas           -0.42    UCF              13.50    
West Virginia   -2.37    Iowa State       13.72    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Texas Tech      +1.28 +/- 0.66    Oklahoma        +0.14 +/- 0.22
Oklahoma State  +0.46 +/- 0.52    Cincinnati      +0.05 +/- 0.32
Kansas State    +0.42 +/- 0.92    Kansas          +0.04 +/- 0.27
Cincinnati      +0.12 +/- 0.79    Kansas State    +0.04 +/- 0.44
Houston         +0.12 +/- 0.50    West Virginia   -0.07 +/- 0.24
TCU             +0.07 +/- 0.58    Oklahoma State  -0.09 +/- 0.22
Texas           -0.02 +/- 0.67    Texas Tech      -0.10 +/- 0.36
West Virginia   -0.11 +/- 0.53    TCU             -0.12 +/- 0.18
UCF             -0.21 +/- 1.04    Texas           -0.27 +/- 0.23
Baylor          -0.35 +/- 0.94    Houston         -0.51 +/- 0.19
Oklahoma        -0.62 +/- 0.64    BYU             -0.53 +/- 0.29
Kansas          -0.86 +/- 0.75    Baylor          -0.63 +/- 0.20
Iowa State      -1.19 +/- 0.88    Iowa State      -0.80 +/- 0.27
BYU             -1.37 +/- 0.76    UCF             -0.88 +/- 0.34

Just a reminder that the average offense, defense, and scoring margins have been adjusted for
home court advantage.  Total points is unaffected, as what you lose in offense you gain in
defense and vice versa, so the adjustments cancel out when computing total points.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
BYU             87.09   Houston         50.79   Baylor          156.85   Houston         +25.07
Baylor          86.73   Iowa State      60.80   TCU             153.07   BYU             +23.75
TCU             84.93   BYU             63.34   BYU             150.43   Iowa State      +22.89
Iowa State      83.70   Oklahoma        64.46   Kansas          146.85   TCU             +16.79
Oklahoma        80.46   Texas Tech      65.39   Cincinnati      146.71   Baylor          +16.62
Cincinnati      80.41   UCF             66.10   Oklahoma        144.93   Oklahoma        +16.00
Kansas          78.67   Cincinnati      66.30   Iowa State      144.50   Cincinnati      +14.11
Texas Tech      77.25   Texas           66.41   Kansas State    144.07   Texas Tech      +11.86
Texas           77.16   Oklahoma State  67.77   Texas           143.57   Texas           +10.75
Houston         75.86   TCU             68.14   Texas Tech      142.64   Kansas          +10.50
UCF             75.60   Kansas          68.17   UCF             141.69   UCF              +9.50
Kansas State    74.93   Kansas State    69.14   Oklahoma State  141.50   Oklahoma State   +5.96
Oklahoma State  73.73   Baylor          70.12   West Virginia   138.29   Kansas State     +5.79
West Virginia   66.23   West Virginia   72.05   Houston         126.64   West Virginia    -5.82

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          +5.65 ( 40)
West Virginia   +4.57 ( 57)
Baylor          +2.40 ( 95)
Kansas State    +1.36 (126)
Texas Tech      -1.22 (221)
Houston         -1.50 (239)
Cincinnati      -2.54 (269)
BYU             -3.29 (286)
Oklahoma        -3.97 (303)
Texas           -4.20 (307)
Oklahoma State  -4.29 (311)
UCF             -4.32 (313)
TCU             -5.04 (326)
Iowa State      -5.40 (330)