predictions for TCU game

Conference play is upon us, and we start off with six winnable games before
things get interesting.

TCU's strength of schedule is #346 out of 362 Division I teams, so the Frogs
are a bit of a question mark, as they haven't really been tested.  They've
played only two Top 100 opponents, namely #24 Clemson and #39 Nevada, and
lost both on neutral courts.  On the other hand, they also played #113
Arizona State, barely in the top-tier (top third), also on a neutral court,
and won rather handily.  And who can forget the smack-down they gave the
Jayhawks in The Phog last season?  Can't take any of these conference
opponents lightly.  Of course, Kansas has that impressive streak of winning
conference openers on the line.  What is it, 32 in a row now?  Most of those
on the road, no less.

TCU has been pretty consistent, playing all their games within 14 points of
expectation, with no discernible trend.  Having done badly against their
toughest opponents, their mental toughness rating is negative, though not
statistically significant.  They play at a fast pace, having topped the
century mark three times during non-conference play.

It's not the super early tip that I hate, but early enough that I should
hit the sack soon to get a decent night of sleep, so I'll keep the commentary
short.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      TCU     KU      Defensive Stats      TCU     KU
Points/Game         85.8    79.3     Opp Points/Game     66.5    66.1
Avg Score Margin   +19.3   +13.3     Opp Effective FG %  46.8    44.9
Assists/Game        19.5    20.9     Off Rebounds/Gm     11.3     7.4
Total Rebounds/Gm   40.2    38.3     Def Rebounds/Gm     26.2    27.6
Effective FG %      54.6    55.7     Blocks/Game          4.4     4.8
Off Rebound %       36.7    25.5     Steals/Game         10.5     7.6
FTA/FGA            0.363   0.336     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.3    14.2
Turnover %          14.8    14.8   

My Stats Comparison        KU            TCU
===================   =============   ============
performance           -0.17           +1.41    
inconsistency         10.67            8.57    
trend                 -0.82 ± 0.90    +0.01 ± 0.66
mental toughness      +0.09 ± 0.27    -0.18 ± 0.20         
average total pts      145.42         152.23

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.  Not much of a surprise, considering how weak a
schedule TCU has played.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Emanuel Miller (forward)
most points        Emanuel Miller (forward)
most rebounds      Emanuel Miller (forward)
most assists       Micah Peavy (guard)
most steals        Jameer Nelson Jr. (guard)
most blocks        Ernest Udeh Jr. (center)
most turnovers     Jameer Nelson Jr. (guard)
most fouls         Avery Anderson III (guard)

I might take these with a grain of salt, as it appears that Greenfield has a
serious bug in his database, based on the fact that the Kansas player with the
most minutes is Charlie McCarthy with 37.00, the Kansas player with the most
points is Charlie McCarthy with 34.00, and the Kansas player with the most steals
is Charlie McCarthy with 2.00.  "To err is human; to really screw up takes a
computer."

                                                          12-1          11-2
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         TCU
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +7.00   75   68       73       #  3   # 29    # 39   #207
Pomeroy                 +7.72   81   74       76.7     # 15   # 60    # 33   #346
Greenfield              +9.50   81   71.5              # 17   # 19    # 26   # 87
Dunkel                 +12.00   85   73                #  5           # 88
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +9.00   80.5 71.5                                      
Dolphin Predictive      +6.49   79   72       70.7     # 26   # 25    # 34   #117
Real Time              +16.00   84   68       85.4     #  3   # 29    # 89   #310 
Seven Overtimes        +10.00   80   70       76       # 46   # 48    # 84   #275
DPPI                    +5.30   77   72       66.0     # 23   # 45    # 57   #336 
ESPN BPI                +6.70                 72.3     # 17   # 49    # 25   #288
Whitlock                +5.09                          # 22   # 50    # 38   #190
Colley Matrix          +10.67                          #  4   # 29    # 56   #278
NCAA NET                                               # 11           # 41
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents                      
Massey composite                                       #  5           # 42
Pomeroy offense                                        # 39           # 49
Pomeroy defense                                        #  5           # 31
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 93           # 32
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +8.79   80.3 71.1     74.3
scatter                  3.13    3.1  2.1      6.1

Here is Kansas' season, with a projected record of 23-8:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #272 North Carolina Central      99  56   +25.54   +17.46
HOME   #333 Manhattan                   99  61   +31.13    +6.87
NEUT   # 17 Kentucky                    89  84    +0.62    +4.38
Div2        Chaminade                   83  56
NEUT   # 12 Marquette                   59  73    -0.37   -13.63
NEUT   #  6 Tennessee                   69  60    -2.14   +11.14
HOME   #327 Eastern Illinois            71  63   +29.33   -21.33
HOME   #  5 Connecticut                 69  65    +1.22    +2.78
HOME   #283 UMKC                        88  69   +26.06    -7.06
HOME   # 88 Missouri                    73  64   +13.62    -4.62
AWAY   # 92 Indiana                     75  71    +7.35    -3.35
HOME   #108 Yale                        75  60   +14.83    +0.17
NEUT   #120 Wichita St.                 86  67   +13.84    +5.16
HOME   # 34 TCU                         81  74    +7.72             0.767
AWAY   # 73 UCF                         76  71    +5.30             0.692
HOME   # 26 Oklahoma                    76  70    +5.76             0.707
AWAY   # 93 Oklahoma St.                75  68    +7.13             0.750
AWAY   #124 West Virginia               77  67   +10.09             0.830
HOME   # 40 Cincinnati                  79  71    +8.21             0.781
AWAY   # 18 Iowa St.                    73  76    -2.82             0.395
HOME   # 93 Oklahoma St.                79  64   +14.13             0.909
HOME   #  1 Houston                     65  69    -4.04             0.351
AWAY   # 75 Kansas St.                  73  68    +5.03             0.683
HOME   # 15 Baylor                      81  77    +3.65             0.635
AWAY   # 37 Texas Tech                  73  72    +0.85             0.532
AWAY   # 26 Oklahoma                    72  73    -1.24             0.453
HOME   # 32 Texas                       77  70    +6.81             0.740
HOME   #  4 BYU                         76  75    +0.19             0.507
AWAY   # 15 Baylor                      77  81    -3.35             0.376
HOME   # 75 Kansas St.                  77  65   +12.03             0.872
AWAY   #  1 Houston                     62  73   -11.04             0.148

Here is TCU's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #244 Southern                   108  75   +20.67   +12.33
HOME   #254 Nebraska Omaha              82  60   +20.95    +1.05
HOME   #317 UT Rio Grande Valley        88  55   +27.40    +5.60
HOME   #362 Mississippi Valley St.      86  52   +37.81    -3.81
HOME   #313 Alcorn St.                  93  74   +26.20    -7.20
HOME   #357 Houston Christian          101  64   +33.45    +3.55
AWAY   #183 Georgetown                  84  83   +10.39    -9.39
NEUT   # 24 Clemson                     66  74    -2.08    -5.92
NEUT   #113 Arizona St.                 79  59    +9.00   +11.00
NEUT   #242 Old Dominion               111  87   +16.95    +7.05
NEUT   # 39 Nevada                      75  88    +0.60   -13.60
AWAY   #138 Hawaii                      65  51    +7.33    +6.67
HOME   #298 Texas A&M Commerce          77  42   +24.06   +10.94
AWAY   # 13 Kansas                      74  81    -7.72             0.233
HOME   # 26 Oklahoma                    77  75    +1.70             0.564
HOME   #  1 Houston                     67  75    -8.19             0.219
AWAY   # 40 Cincinnati                  77  80    -2.82             0.395
HOME   # 18 Iowa St.                    78  78    -0.06             0.498
AWAY   # 93 Oklahoma St.                77  73    +3.34             0.624
AWAY   # 15 Baylor                      79  86    -7.50             0.239
HOME   # 37 Texas Tech                  78  74    +3.94             0.645
HOME   # 32 Texas                       79  76    +2.83             0.606
AWAY   # 18 Iowa St.                    74  81    -7.06             0.252
HOME   #124 West Virginia               82  69   +13.40             0.897
AWAY   # 75 Kansas St.                  75  74    +1.22             0.546
AWAY   # 37 Texas Tech                  75  78    -3.06             0.386
HOME   # 40 Cincinnati                  81  76    +4.18             0.654
HOME   # 15 Baylor                      82  83    -0.50             0.481
AWAY   #  4 BYU                         74  85   -11.07             0.148
AWAY   #124 West Virginia               78  72    +6.40             0.727
HOME   # 73 UCF                         81  73    +8.26             0.782