predictions for Wichita State game

This is the first significant retooling of my projections code in seven years.
I hope it's bug-free, but I'm using this last non-conference game as a test run.
Hopefully, things will be finalized for the conference projections.

There are some changes worth noting.  First, Sagarin explicitly showed the
home advantage that he used, which was updated on a daily basis, and could
indeed be different for his various rating methods.  With Sagarin no longer
doing college basketball ratings, I have to use a different source of information
for the home advantage.  For the moment, I'm using a fixed 3.5 point value.  Some
of you may recall that in past seasons, I've done a home court advantage computation
for the Big 12, which played a full, balanced, home and away schedule, and that
value tended to come out a little higher than the national average computed by
Sagarin.  I've considered using the value from last season, but the Big 12 is
fundamentally different this season.  A bigger conference means that we should be
closer to the national average.  If anything, I may decide to decrease the home
advantage; Sagarin ended last season with a 3.14 point home court advantage for
his Predictor rating method.

Another change is that for now I'm using a fixed 10.58 point inconsistency factor
for all teams, even though we know some teams are more consistent than others.
To take advantage of that fact, one first needs to know how all teams in a
conference have performed in the non-conference portion of their schedules, and
with the new-look Big 12, I'm in the process of getting all that information in
place prior to the onset of conference play.  But 10.58 points isn't too far off
from the truth.

The most obvious change that you'll notice is that I'm not only projecting the
margins for future games, but also the scores.  For games that have been played,
the score is the actual score, and the error column shows the difference between
the actual and predicted margins.  For games that have not been played, the score
is the predicted result, rounded to the nearest integer, while the predicted
margin continues to show fractional points, and the probability column is
populated in these cases, computed using a 10.58 point standard deviation, as
noted above.

I'm not sure whether to call today's game a rivalry game or not.  It hasn't
really been played often enough for a true rivalry.  Shocker fans may treat it
more as a rivalry game than Jayhawk fans, simply because the former may feel as
though they've been snubbed all these years.  The last time the two teams
played was not by choice, but rather forced on them by the NCAA Tournament
bracket, and Wichita State came out on top in 2015, long before any of the
current players were on the team, so they may not have the sense of revenge as
some Jayhawk fans probably do.

The Shockers have played far more consistently than the Jayhawks, but both teams
have negative trends.  Wichita State's value is somewhat smaller but more statistically
significant.  The mental toughness value for Kansas is slightly positive, though not
statistically significant, while Wichita State's value is decidedly negative.  They've
played only three games against the Top 100, losing all three and playing below
expectation in all three.  Meanwhile, Kansas has generally played well against its
toughest competition.

On the other hand, the Jayhawks have been remarkably consistent these last five
games, playing all of them within 6 points of expectation, though the last four
have all been slightly below expectation.

Wichita State plays at a slightly faster pace than does Kansas.  We'll see if
that plays into the Jayhawks' hands.

Hard to figure out Dunkel.  He was such a pessimist for the Yale game, but
he's the most optimistic for today's game, giving Kansas a 22.5 point margin.
That largely offsets the pessimist Seven Overtimes, who has Kansas by a mere
2 points.  The rest average to around 12 points.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      WSU     KU      Defensive Stats      WSU     KU
Points/Game         74.3    78.7     Opp Points/Game     71.1    66.0
Avg Score Margin    +3.2   +12.7     Opp Effective FG %  46.1    44.8
Assists/Game        11.5    20.7     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.5     6.8
Total Rebounds/Gm   42.9    37.5     Def Rebounds/Gm     28.5    27.5
Effective FG %      48.7    56.9     Blocks/Game          4.7     5.1
Off Rebound %       30.7    24.4     Steals/Game          5.5     7.4
FTA/FGA            0.281   0.346     Personal Fouls/Gm   15.3    14.1
Turnover %          13.7    15.5   

My Stats Comparison        KU            WSU
===================   =============   ============
performance           -0.13           +0.92    
inconsistency         11.03            8.80    
trend                 -1.42 ± 1.00    -1.12 ± 0.80
mental toughness      +0.05 ± 0.30    -0.85 ± 0.45         
average total pts      144.73         145.36

Common Opponents
================
There is one common opponent, namely Missouri:

KU   +9 MU  at home ( +6 neutral court)
WSU -10 MU  on road ( -7 neutral court)
KU  +13 WSU neutral (+13 neutral court)

As you can tell, I'm using 3 points exactly for the home court advantage
here, down from 4 points in previous seasons.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Colby Rogers (guard)
most points        Colby Rogers (guard)
most rebounds      Kenny Pohto (forward)
most assists       Harlond Beverly (guard)
most steals        Bijon Cortes (guard)
most blocks        Quincy Ballard (center)
most turnovers     Bijon Cortes (guard)
most fouls         Ronny Degray III (forward)

                                                          11-1           8-4
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      Wichita State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                 +10.00   75   65       82       #  3   # 30    # 89   # 95  
Pomeroy                +12.90   79   66       88.9     # 16   # 61    #117   #157
Greenfield             +13.00   79.5 66.5              # 18   # 17    #109   #107
Dunkel                 +22.50   82   60                #  5           # 88
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +13.00   80   67                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +9.93   77   67       80.3     # 27   # 26    #126   #134
Real Time              +15.00   84   69       84.4     #  3   # 27    # 69   #125 
Seven Overtimes         +2.00   74   72       69       # 98   # 71    # 74   # 69
DPPI                    +9.40   77   67       78.2     # 25   # 50    #104   #102 
ESPN BPI               +15.10                 90.0     # 16   # 46    #108   #197
Whitlock                +8.42                          # 28   # 56    #116   #134
Colley Matrix          +11.28                          #  4   # 34    # 97   #117
NCAA NET                                               # 13           #101
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents       +13.00         
Massey composite                                       #  8           #101
Pomeroy offense                                        # 35           #174
Pomeroy defense                                        #  6           # 87
Pomeroy tempo                                          #110           # 92
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +11.96   78.6 66.6     81.8
scatter                  4.66    3.2  3.2      7.1

Here is Kansas' season, with a projected record of 23-8:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #270 North Carolina Central      99  56   +24.57   +18.43
HOME   #322 Manhattan                   99  61   +29.28    +8.72
NEUT   # 19 Kentucky                    89  84    +0.46    +4.54
Div2        Chaminade                   83  56
NEUT   # 12 Marquette                   59  73    -0.44   -13.56
NEUT   #  6 Tennessee                   69  60    -1.66   +10.66
HOME   #326 Eastern Illinois            71  63   +28.44   -20.44
HOME   #  5 Connecticut                 69  65    +1.19    +2.81
HOME   #269 UMKC                        88  69   +24.61    -5.61
HOME   # 92 Missouri                    73  64   +13.44    -4.44
AWAY   # 87 Indiana                     75  71    +6.21    -2.21
HOME   #114 Yale                        75  60   +15.33    -0.33
NEUT   #117 Wichita St.                 79  66   +12.90             0.889
HOME   # 38 TCU                         80  73    +7.80             0.770
AWAY   # 76 UCF                         75  70    +5.09             0.685
HOME   # 24 Oklahoma                    75  69    +5.16             0.687
AWAY   # 94 Oklahoma St.                74  67    +6.84             0.741
AWAY   #130 West Virginia               76  66    +9.86             0.824
HOME   # 40 Cincinnati                  78  70    +7.98             0.775
AWAY   # 13 Iowa St.                    71  75    -3.87             0.357
HOME   # 94 Oklahoma St.                77  63   +13.84             0.905
HOME   #  1 Houston                     65  68    -3.59             0.367
AWAY   # 68 Kansas St.                  72  68    +3.82             0.641
HOME   # 18 Baylor                      79  76    +3.79             0.640
AWAY   # 42 Texas Tech                  72  71    +1.23             0.546
AWAY   # 24 Oklahoma                    71  73    -1.84             0.431
HOME   # 32 Texas                       76  69    +6.55             0.732
HOME   #  4 BYU                         74  74    +0.24             0.509
AWAY   # 18 Baylor                      76  79    -3.21             0.381
HOME   # 68 Kansas St.                  76  65   +10.82             0.847
AWAY   #  1 Houston                     61  72   -10.59             0.158

Here is Wichita State's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #147 Lipscomb                    76  59    +6.09   +10.91
HOME   #159 Western Kentucky            71  61    +6.74    +3.26
NAIA        Friends University          95  65
AWAY   #304 Coastal Carolina            86  77    +8.14    +0.86
NEUT   # 56 Liberty                     66  83    -5.81   -11.19
NEUT   #197 Saint Louis                 88  69    +4.93   +14.07
HOME   #206 Norfolk St.                 80  67    +8.65    +4.35
HOME   #100 Richmond                    80  68    +1.87   +10.13
AWAY   # 92 Missouri                    72  82    -5.98    -4.02
NEUT   #166 South Dakota St.            69  79    +3.29   -13.28
HOME   #103 Southern Illinois           69  68    +2.21    -1.21
NEUT   # 68 Kansas St.                  60  69    -5.23    -3.77
NEUT   # 16 Kansas                      66  79   -12.90             0.111