predictions for Yale game

Kansas City was the last of the cupcake opponents.  We're looking at top tier
competition the rest of the way.  The Kansas strength of schedule ought to
start creeping ever higher as a result.

Yale has played only one opponent of note, a 15 point loss to Gonzaga.  The
rest are a mixture of middle tier, bottom tier, and Division III opponents.
Still, the Bulldogs should provide decent competition.

RealTime, with its enormous home court advantage, is the most optimistic,
giving Kansas a 25 point margin.  Dunkel is the least optimistic, picking
Kansas to win by just 1.5 points.  Seriously, in The Phog?  The average of
13 prognostications has Kansas winning by 14.5 points.  I'd say we're overdue
for an above expectation performance.

It would appear that Sagarin isn't going to do college basketball unless
somebody like USA Today pays him to do it, so I'm going to use the holidays
to retool my code to work with somebody else's ratings.  My goal is to have
good projections in time for Big 12 conference play.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      Y       KU      Defensive Stats      Y       KU
Points/Game         71.8    79.1     Opp Points/Game     71.5    66.6
Avg Score Margin    +0.3   +12.5     Opp Effective FG %  50.4    44.4
Assists/Game        11.9    21.0     Off Rebounds/Gm      7.4     6.9
Total Rebounds/Gm   34.2    38.1     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.1    28.1
Effective FG %      49.8    56.9     Blocks/Game          3.5     5.0
Off Rebound %       23.8    24.2     Steals/Game          5.8     7.1
FTA/FGA            0.285   0.359     Personal Fouls/Gm   15.4    14.3
Turnover %          12.7    15.5   

Take most of these numbers with a grain of salt, as they are based on Sagarin's
final ratings from last season.

My Stats Comparison        KU            Yale
===================   =============   ============
performance           -0.41           -6.16    
inconsistency         13.51           10.29    
trend                 -1.52 ± 1.48    -1.16 ± 1.13
mental toughness      +0.23 ± 0.34    +0.60 ± 0.34         
average total pts      145.70         143.30

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Bez Mbeng (guard)
most points        Bez Mbeng (guard)
most rebounds      Danny Wolf (forward)
most assists       Bez Mbeng (guard)
most steals        Bez Mbeng (guard)
most blocks        Danny Wolf (forward)
most turnovers     Danny Wolf (forward)
most fouls         August Mahoney (guard)

Looks like a two-man show.

                                                          10-1           7-5
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Yale
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall                                        #      #       #      #   
Sagarin Predictor                                      #      #       #      #    
Sagarin Golden Mean                                    #      #       #      #    
Sagarin Recent Games                                   #      #       #      #    
Sagarin Eigenvector                                 
Massey                 +15.00   78   63       91       #  4   # 21    #128   #169  
Pomeroy                +14.97   79   64                # 13   # 45    #108   #116
Greenfield             +15.50   79   63.5              # 16   # 15    #101   #108
Dunkel                  +1.50   71   70       60.8     #  5           #126
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +15.50   79   63                                        
Dolphin Predictive     +13.99   78   64       88.5     # 29   # 23    #122   #116
Real Time              +25.00   89   64       95.8     #  3   # 34    #163   #154 
Seven Overtimes        +12.00   79   67       85       #112   # 65    #171   #105
DPPI                   +16.40   81   64       89.8     # 25   # 48    #176   #224 
ESPN BPI               +13.20                 88.7     # 13   # 37    # 81   #147
Whitlock               +14.17                          # 24   # 47    #147   #245
Colley Matrix          +19.89                          #  4   # 26    #174   #187
NCAA NET                                               # 10           #139
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents       +12.00         
Massey composite                                       #  7           #140
Pomeroy offense                                        # 36           # 91
Pomeroy defense                                        #  6           #146
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 95           #290
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +14.55   79.2 64.7     85.7
scatter                  5.24    4.6  2.3     11.4

Here is Kansas' season, with predicted margins based on last season's final
Sagarin ratings:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #220 NC Central                  99  56   +23.32   +19.68
HOME   #290 Manhattan                   99  61   +27.77   +10.23
NEUT   # 22 Kentucky                    89  84    +3.83    +1.17
Div2        Chaminade                   83  56
NEUT   # 14 Marquette                   59  73    +2.55   -16.55
NEUT   #  5 Tennessee                   69  60    -1.27   +10.27
HOME   #350 Eastern Illinois            71  63   +33.50   -25.50
HOME   #  3 Connecticut                 69  65    +0.64    +3.36
HOME   #305 Kansas City(UMKC)           88  69   +28.56    -9.56
HOME   # 56 Missouri                    73  64   +10.31    -1.31
AWAY   # 16 Indiana                     75  71    -0.09    +4.09
HOME   # 77 Yale                                 +12.59             0.829
NEUT   # 98 Wichita State                        +11.92             0.815
HOME   # 19 TCU                                   +6.52             0.677
AWAY   # 61 Central Florida(UCF)                  +4.85             0.643
HOME   # 57 Oklahoma                             +10.42             0.775
AWAY   # 44 Oklahoma State                        +2.57             0.582
AWAY   # 24 West Virginia                         +0.85             0.525
HOME   # 46 Cincinnati                            +9.22             0.756
AWAY   # 30 Iowa State                            +1.24             0.536
HOME   # 44 Oklahoma State                        +8.85             0.762
HOME   #  2 Houston                               +0.14             0.504
AWAY   # 26 Kansas State                          +0.93             0.529
HOME   # 12 Baylor                                +4.47             0.632
AWAY   # 37 Texas Tech                            +2.20             0.565
AWAY   # 57 Oklahoma                              +4.14             0.618
HOME   #  6 Texas                                 +2.58             0.578
HOME   # 67 BYU                                  +11.82             0.813
AWAY   # 12 Baylor                                -1.81             0.446
HOME   # 26 Kansas State                          +7.21             0.716
AWAY   #  2 Houston                               -6.14             0.322

Here is Yale's season to date, with rankings and predictions based on
Sagarin's final ratings from last season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
Div3        Vassar                     102  53
AWAY   #  8 Gonzaga                     71  86   -12.59    -2.41
AWAY   #112 Loyola Marymount            83  80    +0.99    +2.01
NEUT   #123 Colgate                     68  50    +5.00   +13.00
NEUT   #191 Weber State                 65  75    +9.11   -19.11
NEUT   #215 Gardner-Webb                71  70   +10.35    -9.35
AWAY   #218 Rhode Island                72  76    +7.40   -11.40
HOME   #315 Stony Brook-NY              79  71   +19.81   -11.81
AWAY   #113 Vermont                     65  66    +1.01    -2.01
HOME   #259 Fairfield                   71  75   +16.67   -20.67
Div3        Colby-Sawyer                95  36
AWAY   #207 Quinnipiac                  73  66    +6.85    +0.15
AWAY   #  7 Kansas                               -12.59             0.147