predictions for Connecticut game

Was Eastern Illinois a trap game?  Sandwiched between two marquee games
against Tennessee and Connecticut, it had all the characteristics of a
trap game, including the dismal performance by the Jayhawks.  But Self
doesn't like that description, because it doesn't give the Panthers enough
credit.  But what else could it have been?  Dunkel had the Jayhawks
favored by as much as 44 points, yet the actual margin was only 1 point
with 5 minutes left in the game.  Just one of those statistical
fluctuations?  "You play five games worse than you are; you play five
games better than you are; the rest of the games are who you are."
That's a layman's way of saying that you'll play 16 percent of your
games more than one standard deviation below the average, another 16
percent more than one standard deviation above the average, and the
remaining 68 percent within one standard deviation of the average.
The determination of that standard deviation is subject to measurement
noise, but a look at games spanning 15 years suggests a value very close
to 10 points.  Kansas has already played two games more than one standard
deviation below the average, admittedly based on Sagarin's out-of-date
ratings, though that average will fluctuate as more game results get
included in the statistics.  We're just lucky that one of them was against
an opponent where the Jayhawks could afford to play that poorly and still
win the game.  It has happened repeatedly in the past that Kansas seems to
play down to the level of the competition, but after the first two games of
this season, I was hoping that we finally had a team that wouldn't do that.
Tuesday's game has me rethinking that conclusion.  The Jayhawks got
outrebounded, for Pete's sake!

Never take a win against an opponent for granted.  You'll come out flat
and play horribly.  I'm probably guilty of that with my opening "Ho hum;
another cupcake."  All right, blame the shoddy performance on me.

Here's another head-scratcher:  UConn has played Indiana and Texas, yet
Pomeory has the Huskies with the #349 strength of schedule.  Recall that
that's out of 362 teams.  Okay, so Indiana is only #72 in Pomeroy's
rankings, but UConn is Indiana's only loss of the season.  And Texas is
only #31 in Pomeroy's ranking, but again UConn is Texas' only loss of
the season.  So, maybe the Huskies haven't really been tested yet.
We'll find out Real Soon Now.

The common opponent comparison is the most favorable for Kansas, with
the Jayhawks favored by 12 points.  After Tuesday's performance, that
seems optimistic.  Real Time, with it's enormous 8 point home court
advantage, is next in line, favoring Kansas by 9.  Dunkel still likes
Kansas and has them by 7, with the BPI close behind.  Seven Overtimes
is at the opposite extreme, picking UConn by 4.  Both Pomeroy and the
DPPI predict overtime, with margins of just a tenth of a point (and of
opposite sign).  The average favors Kansas by 3.5 points, with a game
in the 70s.

It's worth noting that Massey shows not only the strength of schedule
already played, but also the strength of remaining schedule.  Kansas
has the most difficult remaining schedule according to Massey.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     Conn     KU      Defensive Stats     Conn     KU
Points/Game         88.7    81.0     Opp Points/Game     60.6    66.2
Avg Score Margin   +28.1   +14.8     Opp Effective FG %  43.6    42.3
Assists/Game        19.1    23.3     Off Rebounds/Gm     12.0     7.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   44.0    40.0     Def Rebounds/Gm     27.3    30.2
Effective FG %      57.8    59.0     Blocks/Game          6.0     5.3
Off Rebound %       42.6    25.3     Steals/Game          7.6     6.8
FTA/FGA            0.381   0.343     Personal Fouls/Gm   15.6    13.8
Turnover %          12.6    16.7   

Take most of these numbers with a grain of salt, as they are based on Sagarin's
final ratings from last season.

My Stats Comparison        KU            Conn
===================   =============   ============
performance           -0.12           +4.11    
inconsistency         17.45            9.72    
trend                 -6.96 ± 3.11    -2.75 ± 1.59
mental toughness      +0.14 ± 0.58    +0.38 ± 0.25         
average total pts      147.17         149.29

Common Opponents
================
There is one common opponent, namely Manhattan, which each team played at home.

KU  +38 Man at home (+34 neutral court)
UC  +30 Man at home (+26 neutral court)
KU  +12 UC  at home ( +8 neutral court)

Somehow, this comparison just doens't feel right.  Certainly it's out of line
with the other prognistications.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Tristen Newton (guard)
most points        Cam Spencer (guard)
most rebounds      Tristen Newton (guard)
most assists       Tristen Newton (guard)
most steals        Stephon Castle (guard)
most blocks        Donovan Clingan (center)
most turnovers     Tristen Newton (guard)
most fouls         Cam Spencer (guard)

UConn's leading thief, Stephon Castle, is out with a knee injury.  But the
Huskies have a Klingon, er Clingan, in their line-up.  Qapla'!

                                                           6-1           7-0
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      Connecticut
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall                                        #      #       #      #   
Sagarin Predictor                                      #      #       #      #    
Sagarin Golden Mean                                    #      #       #      #    
Sagarin Recent Games                                   #      #       #      #    
Sagarin Eigenvector                                 
Massey                  +2.00   72   70       56       #  8   # 31    #  4   #176
Pomeroy                 +0.09   75   75                #  7   # 83    #  3   #349
Greenfield              +2.50   75.5 73                # 13   #  7    #  6   # 60
Dunkel                  +7.00   75   68       60.8     #  6           #  1
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +3.00   75.5 72.5                                      
Dolphin Predictive      +3.73   76   72       62.2     # 11   #  6    #  8   #106
Real Time               +9.00   84   75       71.9     #  3   # 82    # 14   #162 
Seven Overtimes         -4.00   72   76       40       #102   # 74    # 14   #285
DPPI                    -0.10   74   74       49.8     # 18   # 32    # 14   #302 
ESPN BPI                +6.50                 72.4     #  4   # 46    #  8   #275
Whitlock                                               #      #       #      #   
Colley Matrix           +0.98                          # 29   #  7    # 76   #200
NCAA NET                                               #              #   
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents       +12.00         
Massey composite                                       #  6           #  4
Pomeroy offense                                        # 35           #  6
Pomeroy defense                                        #  4           # 10
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 39           #216
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +3.56   75.4 72.8     59.0
scatter                  4.42    3.5  2.6     11.7

Here is Kansas' season, with predicted margins based on last season's final
Sagarin ratings:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #220 NC Central                  99  56   +23.32   +19.68
HOME   #290 Manhattan                   99  61   +27.77   +10.23
NEUT   # 22 Kentucky                    89  84    +3.83    +1.17
Div2        Chaminade                   83  56
NEUT   # 14 Marquette                   59  73    +2.55   -16.55
NEUT   #  5 Tennessee                   69  60    -1.27   +10.27
HOME   #350 Eastern Illinois            71  63   +33.50   -25.50
HOME   #  3 Connecticut                           +0.64             0.523
HOME   #305 Kansas City(UMKC)                    +28.56             0.995
HOME   # 56 Missouri                             +10.31             0.826
AWAY   # 16 Indiana                               -0.09             0.497
HOME   # 77 Yale                                 +12.59             0.874
NEUT   # 98 Wichita State                        +11.92             0.861
HOME   # 19 TCU                                   +6.52             0.723
AWAY   # 61 Central Florida(UCF)                  +4.85             0.670
HOME   # 57 Oklahoma                             +10.42             0.828
AWAY   # 44 Oklahoma State                        +2.57             0.592
AWAY   # 24 West Virginia                         +0.85             0.531
HOME   # 46 Cincinnati                            +9.22             0.799
AWAY   # 30 Iowa State                            +1.24             0.545
HOME   # 44 Oklahoma State                        +8.85             0.789
HOME   #  2 Houston                               +0.14             0.505
AWAY   # 26 Kansas State                          +0.93             0.534
HOME   # 12 Baylor                                +4.47             0.658
AWAY   # 37 Texas Tech                            +2.20             0.579
AWAY   # 57 Oklahoma                              +4.14             0.647
HOME   #  6 Texas                                 +2.58             0.593
HOME   # 67 BYU                                  +11.82             0.859
AWAY   # 12 Baylor                                -1.81             0.435
HOME   # 26 Kansas State                          +7.21             0.744
AWAY   #  2 Houston                               -6.14             0.288

Here is Connecticut's season to date, with rankings and predictions based on
Sagarin's final ratings from last season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #234 Northern Arizona            95  52   +27.03   +15.97
HOME   #336 Stonehill                  107  67   +34.46    +5.54
HOME   #360 MVSU(Miss. Valley St.)      87  53   +38.86    -4.86
NEUT   # 16 Indiana                     77  57    +5.55   +14.45
NEUT   #  6 Texas                       81  71    +1.94    +8.06
HOME   #290 Manhattan                   90  60   +30.27    -0.27
HOME   #286 New Hampshire               84  64   +30.10   -10.10
AWAY   #  7 Kansas                                -0.64             0.482