predictions for Eastern Illinois game

Ho hum; another cupcake.

Yes, Eastern Illinois has three wins.  Two of those were over Division III teams.
The other was a 2 point squeaker on a neutral court over a fellow cupcake, namely
Coppin State, and neither team managed to reach the 50 point level.

How badly will Kansas win?  Tell me how long the starters will be in the game
first.  At least the bench ought to have ample minutes to work on their game.
A couple of them really need to step up big for Kansas to have a chance at a
championship.

One piece of good news:  Dolphin is now on board for this season.  Andy is one
of the more reliable sources of prognostications.  Sagarin is still AWOL.  Now
that the football regular season is over, one might hope that he'd switch his
attention to basketball, but we do have another week of conference tournament
games, and then bowl games scattered throughout December and early January.
I'd expect to see some ratings from Sagarin next week, if he plans to do them
at all.  If not, I'll need to switch to a different person's computer ratings.
The question is, who?  Sagarin is the only one who explicitly states his home
advantage.  I can reverse engineer it for Dolphin.  Pomeroy is highly regarded,
but it would take me longer to write code to dig numbers out of his HTML.

Are people feeling better about the Maui results after learning more about the
state of the team?  We already knew that KJ was dealing with the death of his
mother, but now we've learned that Kevin was "as sick as a dog".  Well, I'm
not sure I'd agree with that characterization, because someone that sick
wouldn't be playing, but it does raise the question as to how much Kevin's
performance was adversely affected.  Could they have beaten Marquette with
a team at full strength?

They don't need to be at full strength to beat the Panthers today.  The average
of 12 predicted margins is 34 points, with a scatter of 6 points.  The
probability of victory averages 98.4 percent, with a scatter of 1.6 percent.
Massey has it as 100 percent, which I take to mean "greater than 99.5 percent",
since he's only listing percentages as integers.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     EIll     KU      Defensive Stats     EIll     KU
Points/Game         58.0    83.0     Opp Points/Game     72.0    66.8
Avg Score Margin   -14.0   +16.2     Opp Effective FG %  53.7    41.5
Assists/Game         8.8    23.2     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.6     6.6
Total Rebounds/Gm   34.0    41.4     Def Rebounds/Gm     20.8    31.8
Effective FG %      40.9    60.2     Blocks/Game          2.8     4.2
Off Rebound %       27.0    24.3     Steals/Game          5.6     6.0
FTA/FGA            0.219   0.347     Personal Fouls/Gm   19.6    14.4
Turnover %          17.0    17.4   

My Stats Comparison        KU            EIll
===================   =============   ============
performance             .               .      
inconsistency           .               .      
trend                   .               .         
mental toughness        .               .         
average total pts      149.8          130.0     

Common Opponents
================
There are no official common opponents, though Eastern Illinois did play Illinois,
one of our exhibition games opponents.  That was also the case for the Marquette
game, and that common opponent comparison was bang on, so this time I'll include it.

KU   -7 Ill on road ( -3 neutral court)
EI  -28 Ill on road (-24 neutral court)
KU  +25 EIU at home (+21 neutral court)

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Kooper Jacobi (forward)
most points        Kooper Jacobi (forward)
most rebounds      Kooper Jacobi (forward)
most assists       Tiger Booker (guard)
most steals        Tiger Booker (guard)
most blocks        Kooper Jacobi (forward), Jermaine Hamlin (forward)
most turnovers     Jaylin Gibson (guard)
most fouls         Dan Luers (guard)

                                                           5-1           3-4
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       E. Illinois
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall                                        #      #       #      #   
Sagarin Predictor                                      #      #       #      #    
Sagarin Golden Mean                                    #      #       #      #    
Sagarin Recent Games                                   #      #       #      #    
Sagarin Eigenvector                                 
Massey                 +36.00   86   50      100       #  7   # 18    #330   #332
Pomeroy                +33.60   86   52                #  5   # 17    #344   #134
Greenfield             +39.00   91   52                #  7   #  4    #317   #343
Dunkel                 +44.00   89   45                #  9           #340
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +38.50   90   52                                          
Dolphin Predictive     +30.25   86   56       99.5     #  5   #  4    #335   #340
Real Time              +40.00   88   48       98.7     #  3   # 77    #329   #127 
Seven Overtimes        +34.00   87   53       96       #120   # 21    #342   #198
DPPI                   +38.00   89   51                #  4   #       #351   #    
ESPN BPI               +26.30                 97.9     #  2   # 36    #280   #186
Whitlock                                               #      #       #      #   
Colley Matrix          +26.86                          # 27   # 15    #330   #309
NCAA NET                                               #              #   
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents       +25.00         
Massey composite                                       #  6           #343
Pomeroy offense                                        # 27           #354
Pomeroy defense                                        #  3           #298
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 23           #321
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +34.29   88.0 51.0     98.4
scatter                  6.07    1.9  3.1      1.6

Here is Kansas' season, with predicted margins based on last season's final
Sagarin ratings:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #220 NC Central                  99  56   +23.32   +19.68
HOME   #290 Manhattan                   99  61   +27.77   +10.23
NEUT   # 22 Kentucky                    89  84    +3.83    +1.17
Div2        Chaminade                   83  56
NEUT   # 14 Marquette                   59  73    +2.55   -16.55
NEUT   #  5 Tennessee                   69  60    -1.27   +10.27
HOME   #350 Eastern Illinois                     +33.50             0.999
HOME   #  3 Connecticut                           +0.64             0.523
HOME   #305 Kansas City(UMKC)                    +28.56             0.995
HOME   # 56 Missouri                             +10.31             0.826
AWAY   # 16 Indiana                               -0.09             0.497
HOME   # 77 Yale                                 +12.59             0.874
NEUT   # 98 Wichita State                        +11.92             0.861
HOME   # 19 TCU                                   +6.52             0.723
AWAY   # 61 Central Florida(UCF)                  +4.85             0.670
HOME   # 57 Oklahoma                             +10.42             0.828
AWAY   # 44 Oklahoma State                        +2.57             0.592
AWAY   # 24 West Virginia                         +0.85             0.531
HOME   # 46 Cincinnati                            +9.22             0.799
AWAY   # 30 Iowa State                            +1.24             0.545
HOME   # 44 Oklahoma State                        +8.85             0.789
HOME   #  2 Houston                               +0.14             0.505
AWAY   # 26 Kansas State                          +0.93             0.534
HOME   # 12 Baylor                                +4.47             0.658
AWAY   # 37 Texas Tech                            +2.20             0.579
AWAY   # 57 Oklahoma                              +4.14             0.647
HOME   #  6 Texas                                 +2.58             0.593
HOME   # 67 BYU                                  +11.82             0.859
AWAY   # 12 Baylor                                -1.81             0.435
HOME   # 26 Kansas State                          +7.21             0.744
AWAY   #  2 Houston                               -6.14             0.288

Here is Eastern Illinois' season to date, with rankings and predictions based on
Sagarin's final ratings from last season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   # 21 Illinois                    52  80   -29.83    +1.83
Div3        Monmouth IL                 91  45
AWAY   #211 Loyola-Chicago              65  89   -13.90   -10.10
AWAY   #256 Illinois State              61  69   -10.77    +2.77
NEUT   #344 Coppin State                48  46    -0.91    +2.91
AWAY   #251 Miami-Ohio                  64  76   -10.96    -1.04
Div3        Eureka                      85  39
AWAY   #  7 Kansas                               -33.50             0.002