predictions for Tennessee game

Hmm, from the Big East Battle to the SEC Challenge.

Can somebody explain why Massey now has Tennessee ranked higher than
Kansas, yet is picking Kansas to win the game by 1?  Can somebody
explain why Greenfield now has Tennessee ranked higher than Kansas,
yet is picking Kansas to win the game by 1?  Pomeroy also has
Tennessee ranked higher, and if I've converted his numbers into a
score correctly, at least he is expecting Tennessee to win, but only by
0.3 points, suggesting overtime.  Continuing the odd trend, Dunkel
now has Kansas ranked higher than Tennessee, yet he is picking
Tennessee to win the game.

They're all saying pretty much the same thing:  it's a toss-up game.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     Tenn     KU      Defensive Stats     Tenn     KU
Points/Game         76.4    86.5     Opp Points/Game     60.0    68.5
Avg Score Margin   +16.4   +18.0     Opp Effective FG %  40.4    42.6
Assists/Game        14.0    24.5     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.8     7.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   39.4    40.5     Def Rebounds/Gm     26.8    31.0
Effective FG %      50.0    61.2     Blocks/Game          5.0     4.5
Off Rebound %       28.8    26.2     Steals/Game          7.2     6.3
FTA/FGA            0.383   0.331     Personal Fouls/Gm   19.4    15.8
Turnover %          13.3    16.9   

My Stats Comparison        KU            Tenn
===================   =============   ============
performance             .               .      
inconsistency           .               .      
trend                   .               .         
mental toughness        .               .         
average total pts      155.0          136.4     

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.  Too bad, as the common opponent
comparison was bang on for the Marquette game.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Josiah-Jordan James (guard)
most points        Dalton Knecht (guard)
most rebounds      Josiah-Jordan James (guard)
most assists       Zakai Zeigker (guard)
most steals        Josiah-Jordan James (guard)
most blocks        Jonas Aidoo (forward)
most turnovers     Zakai Zeigker (guard)
most fouls         Santiago Vescovi (guard)

Guard Freddie Dillone hasn't played in the last three games due to a foot injury;
unclear when he will be available for action.

                                                           4-1           4-1
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Tennessee
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall                                        #      #       #      #   
Sagarin Predictor                                      #      #       #      #    
Sagarin Golden Mean                                    #      #       #      #    
Sagarin Recent Games                                   #      #       #      #    
Sagarin Eigenvector                                 
Massey                  +1.00   67   66       52       # 10   # 55    #  9   # 15
Pomeroy                 -0.30   72   72                #  9   #108    #  7   # 91
Greenfield              +1.00   71   70                # 12   # 14    #  8   #  2
Dunkel                  -3.00   65   68                #  9           # 13
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +1.00   71.5 70.5                                        
Dolphin Predictive                                     #      #       #      #   
Real Time                                              #  3   # 75    # 13   #139 
Seven Overtimes         +1.00   73   72       42       #140   # 81    # 88   # 20
DPPI                                                   #  5   #       #      #    
ESPN BPI                +1.00                 53.8     #  2   #109    #  5   # 38
Whitlock                                               #      #       #      #   
Colley Matrix           +3.26                          # 18   #174    # 55   #334
NCAA NET                                               #              #   
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents                      
Massey composite                                       #  3           #  9
Pomeroy offense                                        # 17           # 33
Pomeroy defense                                        #  6           #  1
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 17           #200
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +0.62   69.9 69.8     49.3
scatter                  1.76    3.2  2.4      6.4

Here is Kansas' season, with predicted margins based on last season's final
Sagarin ratings:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #220 NC Central                  99  56   +23.32   +19.68
HOME   #290 Manhattan                   99  61   +27.77   +10.23
NEUT   # 22 Kentucky                    89  84    +3.83    +1.17
Div2        Chaminade                   83  56
NEUT   # 14 Marquette                   59  73    +2.55   -16.55
NEUT   #  5 Tennessee                             -1.27             0.454
HOME   #350 Eastern Illinois                     +33.50             0.999
HOME   #  3 Connecticut                           +0.64             0.523
HOME   #305 Kansas City(UMKC)                    +28.56             0.995
HOME   # 56 Missouri                             +10.31             0.826
AWAY   # 16 Indiana                               -0.09             0.497
HOME   # 77 Yale                                 +12.59             0.874
NEUT   # 98 Wichita State                        +11.92             0.861
HOME   # 19 TCU                                   +6.52             0.723
AWAY   # 61 Central Florida(UCF)                  +4.85             0.670
HOME   # 57 Oklahoma                             +10.42             0.828
AWAY   # 44 Oklahoma State                        +2.57             0.592
AWAY   # 24 West Virginia                         +0.85             0.531
HOME   # 46 Cincinnati                            +9.22             0.799
AWAY   # 30 Iowa State                            +1.24             0.545
HOME   # 44 Oklahoma State                        +8.85             0.789
HOME   #  2 Houston                               +0.14             0.505
AWAY   # 26 Kansas State                          +0.93             0.534
HOME   # 12 Baylor                                +4.47             0.658
AWAY   # 37 Texas Tech                            +2.20             0.579
AWAY   # 57 Oklahoma                              +4.14             0.647
HOME   #  6 Texas                                 +2.58             0.593
HOME   # 67 BYU                                  +11.82             0.859
AWAY   # 12 Baylor                                -1.81             0.435
HOME   # 26 Kansas State                          +7.21             0.744
AWAY   #  2 Houston                               -6.14             0.288

Here is Tennessee's season to date, with rankings and predictions based on
Sagarin's final ratings from last season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #308 Tennessee Tech              80  42   +30.06    +7.94
AWAY   # 53 Wisconsin                   80  70    +5.06    +4.94
HOME   #213 Wofford                     82  61   +24.15    -3.15
NEUT   # 95 Syracuse                    73  56   +13.04    +3.96
NEUT   # 10 Purdue                      67  71    +1.96    -5.96
NEUT   #  7 Kansas                                +1.27             0.543