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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Marquette game
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1 year 2 days ago #31706
by asteroid
A triple double two games in a row? Are you serious? Do I hear three?
So, where do we stand this season? Sagarin is still AWOL. Real Time
is now on board, but as I've stated in the past many times, Real Time
isn't ready from Prime Time. At least he did update his rankings, as
Marquette is now shown as having a 4-0 record. Kansas is stuck at 3-0,
however, because the Jayhawks' opponent was not a Division I team, and
he did not update his schedules with the Maui Invitational's second
round games, so no prediction from Real Time. Meanwhile, Colley did
not update his ratings with the results from Monday's games, but as of
November 19, he had Marquette ranked slightly higher than Kansas, so
the ratings would predict a Marquette victory today. I am still using
the scaling factor for ratings units to points from last season, as the
teams need to be well-connected before comparing methods, and the usual
comparison is against Sagarin, who still hasn't released any ratings for
this season. I'm way too busy to retool my programs to work off of a
different set of ratings, but if Sagarin remains AWOL after teams become
well-connected, I'll do it. That's around mid-December.
The prediction from Greenfield (Team Rankings) dropped from 4.5 points
last night to just 4.0 points today.
Seven Overtimes is predicting a 2 point loss for Kansas.
It won't get any easier with either Purdue or Tennessee tomorrow.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats Marq KU Defensive Stats Marq KU
Points/Game 82.3 95.7 Opp Points/Game 67.0 67.0
Avg Score Margin +15.3 +28.7 Opp Effective FG % 44.9 40.3
Assists/Game 15.3 27.0 Off Rebounds/Gm 7.3 7.0
Total Rebounds/Gm 36.5 42.7 Def Rebounds/Gm 25.8 34.0
Effective FG % 56.9 65.7 Blocks/Game 2.3 5.3
Off Rebound % 23.6 26.6 Steals/Game 8.5 6.0
FTA/FGA 0.325 0.341 Personal Fouls/Gm 15.8 17.0
Turnover % 10.4 15.1
My Stats Comparison KU Marq
=================== ============= ============
performance . .
inconsistency . .
trend . .
mental toughness . .
average total pts 162.7 149.3
Common Opponents
================
Officially, there are no common opponents. However, we did lose to
Illinois by 7 in an exhibition game, while Marquette beat them by 7
in a game that counts. That would favor Marquette by 14 points.
Yikes.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Oso Ighodaro (forward)
most points Kam Jones (guard)
most rebounds Oso Ighodaro (forward)
most assists Tyler Kolek (guard)
most steals two tied
most blocks Oso Ighodaro (forward)
most turnovers Tyler Kolek (guard)
most fouls Kam Jones (guard)
3-0 4-0
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Marquette
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall # # # #
Sagarin Predictor # # # #
Sagarin Golden Mean # # # #
Sagarin Recent Games # # # #
Sagarin Eigenvector
Massey +1.00 72 71 53 # 6 #154 # 7 # 13
Pomeroy +3.00 81 78 # 4 #277 # 12 # 98
Greenfield +4.00 80 76 # 5 # 30 # 12 # 13
Dunkel +1.50 76 75 # 5 # 12
Vegas (via Dunkel) +4.50 81 76
Dolphin Predictive # # # #
Real Time # 3 # 99 # 29 #109
Seven Overtimes -2.00 78 80 48 # 52 #170 # 13 #172
DPPI +2.40 81 78 63 # 5 # # #
ESPN BPI +3.00 60.9 # 2 #244 # 8 # 69
Whitlock # # # #
Colley Matrix -1.43 # 18 #174 # 7 #108
NCAA NET # #
LRMC # # # #
common opponents
Massey composite # 2 # 8
Pomeroy offense # 12 # 8
Pomeroy defense # 6 # 29
Pomeroy tempo # 8 #185
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +1.77 78.4 76.3 56.2
scatter 2.26 3.4 2.9 7.0
Here is Kansas' season, with predicted margins based on last season's final
Sagarin ratings. Normally you could just add those probabilities of victory to
compute the expected number of wins, but last season's ratings aren't all that
useful, and I also have all possible opponents listed for the Maui Invitational,
which would skew the result upward by about 2 wins. What a loaded field this year.
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #220 NC Central 99 56 +23.32 +19.68
HOME #290 Manhattan 99 61 +27.77 +10.23
NEUT # 22 Kentucky 89 84 +3.83 +1.17
Div2 Chaminade 83 56
NEUT # 14 Marquette Game 2 +2.55 0.592
NEUT # 10 Purdue Game 3 +0.69 0.525
NEUT # 5 Tennessee Game 3 -1.27 0.454
HOME #350 Eastern Illinois +33.50 0.999
HOME # 3 Connecticut +0.64 0.523
HOME #305 Kansas City(UMKC) +28.56 0.995
HOME # 56 Missouri +10.31 0.826
AWAY # 16 Indiana -0.09 0.497
HOME # 77 Yale +12.59 0.874
NEUT # 98 Wichita State +11.92 0.861
HOME # 19 TCU +6.52 0.723
AWAY # 61 Central Florida(UCF) +4.85 0.670
HOME # 57 Oklahoma +10.42 0.828
AWAY # 44 Oklahoma State +2.57 0.592
AWAY # 24 West Virginia +0.85 0.531
HOME # 46 Cincinnati +9.22 0.799
AWAY # 30 Iowa State +1.24 0.545
HOME # 44 Oklahoma State +8.85 0.789
HOME # 2 Houston +0.14 0.505
AWAY # 26 Kansas State +0.93 0.534
HOME # 12 Baylor +4.47 0.658
AWAY # 37 Texas Tech +2.20 0.579
AWAY # 57 Oklahoma +4.14 0.647
HOME # 6 Texas +2.58 0.593
HOME # 67 BYU +11.82 0.859
AWAY # 12 Baylor -1.81 0.435
HOME # 26 Kansas State +7.21 0.744
AWAY # 2 Houston -6.14 0.288
Here is Marquette's season to date, with rankings and predictions based on
Sagarin's final ratings from last season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #245 Northern Illinois 92 70 +22.58 -0.58
HOME #216 Rider 95 65 +20.39 +9.61
AWAY # 21 Illinois 71 64 -2.02 +9.02
NEUT # 4 UCLA 71 69 -3.93 +5.93
NEUT # 7 Kansas -2.55 0.364
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, Bayhawk, boulderhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, jaythawk1
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