predictions for Chaminade game

What an amazing game in the Champions Classic.  It's rare enough to see a
20/20 performance.  It's rare enough to see a triple double.  It's rare
enough to see someone who prefers to dish assists score a career high.
WE SAW ALL THREE IN THE SAME GAME!

Chaminade is not a Division I school, so most of the usual prognosticators
aren't doing predictions for this game.  On paper, it should be a rout.
Then again, could Hunter Dickinson be our Ralph Sampson?  As most of you
know, Chaminade did beat Ralph Sampson when he was the top dog for #1 Virginia
back in 1982.  In subsequent years, they managed to take down the likes of
Oklahoma (2010), Texas (2012), and California (2017), and this time they should
have plenty of fans in the stands, with the game being played roughly a mile
from their campus.  Definitely not a game to be taken for granted.  Hopefully
our starters will be able to get some rest, because Rounds 2 and 3 could be
against opponents even stronger than Kentucky.

Kudos to Massey for doing rankings beyond Division I, so we have a
legitimate prediction from him.  ESPN's BPI has a predicted margin,
as does Greenfield, but without the usual game preview.  The DPPI
score is more of a gut feeling from Don Davis than an actual computer
computation, given that his DPPI only includes Division I teams, but
given the dearth of predictions, I left it in the list.

Part of me wants to predict a score of 99 for Kansas (it's left as an
exercise for the student to figure out why), but if Self does rest his
starters, that could bring down the number of points the Jayhawks
score.  Also, I understand that KJ won't play today in the aftermath of
a death in the family (shades of Thomas Robinson).

Chaminade lost to Anchorage up in Fairbanks (which I'm calling an away
game rather than neutral court), then beat Fairbanks before returning to
Honolulu, where they lost to Hilo in overtime, so the Silverswords are
1-2 on the season.

Rock Chalk!

                                                           3-0           1-2
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Chaminade
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall                                        #      #       #      #   
Sagarin Predictor                                      #      #       #      #    
Sagarin Golden Mean                                    #      #       #      #    
Sagarin Recent Games                                   #      #       #      #    
Sagarin Eigenvector                                 
Massey                 +42.00   97   55      100       #  2   # 87    #584   #481
Pomeroy                                                #  4   #270    #      #   
Greenfield             +42.50                          #  3   # 11    #      #   
Dunkel                                                 #              #   
Vegas (via Dunkel)                                                               
Dolphin Predictive                                     #      #       #      #   
Real Time                                              #      #       #      #    
Seven Overtimes                                        # 53   #183    #      #   
DPPI                   +32.00   90   58                #  5   #       #      #    
ESPN BPI               +51.70                 99.9     #  2   #179    #      #   
Whitlock                                               #      #       #      #   
Colley Matrix                                          # 23   #195    #      #   
NCAA NET                                               #              #   
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents                      
Massey composite                                       #  2           #   
Pomeroy offense                                        # 11           #   
Pomeroy defense                                        #  4           #   
Pomeroy tempo                                          #  3           #   
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +42.05   93.5 56.5     99.9
scatter                  8.05    5.0  2.1      0.1

Here is Kansas' season, with predicted margins based on last season's final
Sagarin ratings.  Normally you could just add those probabilities of victory to
compute the expected number of wins, but last season's ratings aren't all that
useful, and I also have all possible opponents listed for the Maui Invitational,
which would skew the result upward by about 2 wins.  What a loaded field this year.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #220 NC Central                  99  56   +23.32   +19.68
HOME   #290 Manhattan                   99  61   +27.77   +10.23
NEUT   # 22 Kentucky                    89  84    +3.83    +1.17
Div2        Chaminade         Game 1          

NEUT   #  4 UCLA              Game 2              -1.38             0.450
NEUT   # 14 Marquette         Game 2              +2.55             0.592

NEUT   #  8 Gonzaga           Game 3              +0.00             0.500
NEUT   # 10 Purdue            Game 3              +0.69             0.525
NEUT   # 95 Syracuse          Game 3             +11.77             0.858
NEUT   #  5 Tennessee         Game 3              -1.27             0.454

HOME   #350 Eastern Illinois                     +33.50             0.999
HOME   #  3 Connecticut                           +0.64             0.523
HOME   #305 Kansas City(UMKC)                    +28.56             0.995
HOME   # 56 Missouri                             +10.31             0.826
AWAY   # 16 Indiana                               -0.09             0.497
HOME   # 77 Yale                                 +12.59             0.874
NEUT   # 98 Wichita State                        +11.92             0.861
HOME   # 19 TCU                                   +6.52             0.723
AWAY   # 61 Central Florida(UCF)                  +4.85             0.670
HOME   # 57 Oklahoma                             +10.42             0.828
AWAY   # 44 Oklahoma State                        +2.57             0.592
AWAY   # 24 West Virginia                         +0.85             0.531
HOME   # 46 Cincinnati                            +9.22             0.799
AWAY   # 30 Iowa State                            +1.24             0.545
HOME   # 44 Oklahoma State                        +8.85             0.789
HOME   #  2 Houston                               +0.14             0.505
AWAY   # 26 Kansas State                          +0.93             0.534
HOME   # 12 Baylor                                +4.47             0.658
AWAY   # 37 Texas Tech                            +2.20             0.579
AWAY   # 57 Oklahoma                              +4.14             0.647
HOME   #  6 Texas                                 +2.58             0.593
HOME   # 67 BYU                                  +11.82             0.859
AWAY   # 12 Baylor                                -1.81             0.435
HOME   # 26 Kansas State                          +7.21             0.744
AWAY   #  2 Houston                               -6.14             0.288

Here is Chaminade's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   #    Anchorage                   72  77                    
AWAY   #    Fairbanks                   80  72                     
HOME   #    Hilo                        86  90
       #  7 Kansas