predictions for Kentucky game

Sagarin is still AWOL.  Is he waiting for football season to end?  Is he waiting
for the teams to become well-connected so that the ratings actually mean something?
Inquiring minds want to know!  With USA Today apparently no longer purchasing that
content from him, I guess his motivation has changed, hence an explanation for why
this season is being handled differently from previous seasons, but then one has to
ask why he's doing football?  At least Colley is now on board with his matrix.

I also have to question the "confidence" percentage that Seven Overtimes computes.
Is that simply the probability of victory that others compute?  If so, then why
would he pick Kentucky to win by 7 but have only a 45 percent chance of winning?
I suspect that Seven Overtimes does not use any bias from the prior season for
these early season games, as his ratings are pretty wonky.  His top team?  East
Carolina.  Fortunately, Seven Overtimes is the only prognosticator that I follow
who is picking Kentucky in this game, oddly by the exact opposite score than
Greenfield has.

Colley's ratings appear to be more based on win-loss record than on scoring
differental.  His top team?  Oregon, apparently by virtue of their win over
Georgia.  Comparing the first several teams with 2-0 records, his rankings are
based on who has the best strength of schedule.  Given that Kansas' two wins
are over cupcakes, it's no surprise that he has the Jayhawks ranked way down at
#42, with the #280 strength of schedule.

Today, things get interesting.  Kentucky is a top-tier opponent, but their
roster is incomplete due to injury and eligibility issues, particularly at the
forward position, so this Wildcat team is unlikely to look the same later in
the season.

I think the key for Kansas this season is to avoid foul trouble and injuries.
The bench is short, though Parker Braun seems to be a better back-up for Hunter
Dickinson than many expected before the season started.  Three point shooting
was a concern after the two exhibition games, but that concern was erased by
the North Carolina Central game.  That's good news, because the Jayhawks need
a credible outside threat to minimize the amount of double-teaming that
Dickinson is going to get.  His passing ability means that he can find that
open person better than other post players, but that open person needs to be
able to knock down the shot.

With the vacated wins, the all-time wins leader has reverted to Kentucky.
Here's an opportunity to chip away at that difference.  With the SEC Challenge
now defunct, it may be a while before Kansas and Kentucky go head-to-head
again.  If the Champions Classic gets extended beyond 2025, and assuming no
change in the participants, it could be three years before these two teams meet
again.  Of course, they could always schedule a home and home in the regular
season, but with the new-look Big 12 moving to a 20-game conference schedule,
and commitments to play teams like North Carolina and Missouri in coming
seasons, not to mention the exempt tournaments like the Battle 4 Atlantis,
there won't be many opportunities to schedule Kentucky deliberately.  There
could be the chance matchup in one of those exempt tournaments, plus postseason
action, but the nearly yearly meetings of these past several seasons are likely
going to be a thing of the past.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      UK      KU      Defensive Stats      UK      KU
Points/Game         83.5    99.0     Opp Points/Game     53.5    58.5
Avg Score Margin   +30.0   +40.5     Opp Effective FG %  43.3    40.0
Assists/Game        14.5    29.5     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.0     7.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   41.5    41.5     Def Rebounds/Gm     28.5    32.5
Effective FG %      54.9    72.0     Blocks/Game          3.0     6.0
Off Rebound %       25.0    30.4     Steals/Game         10.5     5.5
FTA/FGA            0.220   0.211     Personal Fouls/Gm   10.5    14.0
Turnover %           5.8    14.9   

My Stats Comparison        KU             UK
===================   =============   ============
performance             .               .      
inconsistency           .               .      
trend                   .               .         
mental toughness        .               .         
average total pts      157.5          137.0     

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Tre Mitchell (forward)
most points        Antonio Reeves (guard)
most rebounds      Tre Mitchell (forward)
most assists       Rob Dillingham (guard)
most steals        Reed Sheppard (guard)
most blocks        Reed Sheppard (gaurd)
most turnovers     Justin Edwards (guard)
most fouls         Jordan Burks (guard)

Guard Adou Thiero has been out with symptoms of a concussion, but is expected to
play.  Guard Grant Barbyshire hasn't played yet for an undisclosed issue.
Forward Zvonimir Ivisic is still waiting for an eligibility waiver.  Forward
Aaron Bradshaw is out with a fractured foot.  Forward Ugonna Onyenso is out
with an ankle injury.

                                                           2-0           2-0
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Kentucky
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall                                        #      #       #      #   
Sagarin Predictor                                      #      #       #      #    
Sagarin Golden Mean                                    #      #       #      #    
Sagarin Recent Games                                   #      #       #      #    
Sagarin Eigenvector                                 
Massey                  +4.00   72   68       64       #  4   #321    # 19   #241
Pomeroy                 +4.43   77   72.5              #  3   #336    # 14   #306
Greenfield              +7.00   77   70                #  2   #208    # 14   #243
Dunkel                  +2.50   72   70                #  7           # 18
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +7.00   77.5 70.5                                        
Dolphin Predictive                                     #      #       #      #   
Real Time                                              #      #       #      #    
Seven Overtimes         -7.00   70   77       55       # 34   #317    # 93   #144
DPPI                    +3.40   75   71.5     66.4     #      #       #      #    
ESPN BPI                +7.10                 74.8     #  1   #       # 32   #   
Whitlock                                               #      #       #      #   
Colley Matrix           +2.72                          # 42   #280    # 98   #354
NCAA NET                                               #              #   
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents                      
Massey composite                                       #  1           # 15
Pomeroy offense                                        #  8           # 12
Pomeroy defense                                        #  4           # 27
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 58           #283
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +3.46   74.4 71.4     65.1
scatter                  4.34    3.0  2.9      8.1

Here is Kansas' season, with predicted margins based on last season's final
Sagarin ratings.  Normally you could just add those probabilities of victory to
compute the expected number of wins, but last season's ratings aren't all that
useful, and I also have all possible opponents listed for the Maui Invitational,
which would skew the result upward by about 2 wins.  What a loaded field this year.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #220 NC Central                  99  56   +23.32   +19.68
HOME   #290 Manhattan                   99  61   +27.77   +10.23
NEUT   # 22 Kentucky                              +3.83             0.636
Div2        Chaminade         Game 1          

NEUT   #  4 UCLA              Game 2              -1.38             0.450
NEUT   # 14 Marquette         Game 2              +2.55             0.592

NEUT   #  8 Gonzaga           Game 3              +0.00             0.500
NEUT   # 10 Purdue            Game 3              +0.69             0.525
NEUT   # 95 Syracuse          Game 3             +11.77             0.858
NEUT   #  5 Tennessee         Game 3              -1.27             0.454

HOME   #350 Eastern Illinois                     +33.50             0.999
HOME   #  3 Connecticut                           +0.64             0.523
HOME   #305 Kansas City(UMKC)                    +28.56             0.995
HOME   # 56 Missouri                             +10.31             0.826
AWAY   # 16 Indiana                               -0.09             0.497
HOME   # 77 Yale                                 +12.59             0.874
NEUT   # 98 Wichita State                        +11.92             0.861
HOME   # 19 TCU                                   +6.52             0.723
AWAY   # 61 Central Florida(UCF)                  +4.85             0.670
HOME   # 57 Oklahoma                             +10.42             0.828
AWAY   # 44 Oklahoma State                        +2.57             0.592
AWAY   # 24 West Virginia                         +0.85             0.531
HOME   # 46 Cincinnati                            +9.22             0.799
AWAY   # 30 Iowa State                            +1.24             0.545
HOME   # 44 Oklahoma State                        +8.85             0.789
HOME   #  2 Houston                               +0.14             0.505
AWAY   # 26 Kansas State                          +0.93             0.534
HOME   # 12 Baylor                                +4.47             0.658
AWAY   # 37 Texas Tech                            +2.20             0.579
AWAY   # 57 Oklahoma                              +4.14             0.647
HOME   #  6 Texas                                 +2.58             0.593
HOME   # 67 BYU                                  +11.82             0.859
AWAY   # 12 Baylor                                -1.81             0.435
HOME   # 26 Kansas State                          +7.21             0.744
AWAY   #  2 Houston                               -6.14             0.288

Here is Kentucky's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #159 New Mexico State            86  46   +16.11   +23.89
HOME   #331 Texas A&M-Commerce          81  61   +26.97    -6.97
NEUT   #  7 Kansas                                -3.83             0.364