predictions for Manhattan game

Sagarin is still AWOL.  But Seven Overtimes is now on board.

I'm on a tight schedule today, so I'll just say that Manhattan is
another cupcake.  Relax and enjoy the game.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      Man     KU      Defensive Stats      Man     KU
Points/Game         61.0    99.0     Opp Points/Game     59.0    56.0
Avg Score Margin    +2.0   +43.0     Opp Effective FG %  41.8    40.4
Assists/Game         7.0    34.0     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.0     3.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   51.0    38.0     Def Rebounds/Gm     32.0    33.0
Effective FG %      38.9    81.3     Blocks/Game          4.0     3.0
Off Rebound %       25.7    20.0     Steals/Game          8.0     4.0
FTA/FGA            0.238   0.179     Personal Fouls/Gm   20.0    13.0
Turnover %          16.0    14.4   

My Stats Comparison        KU           Arkansas
===================   =============   ============
performance             .               .      
inconsistency           .               .      
trend                   .               .         
mental toughness        .               .         
average total pts      155.0          120.0     

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.  No big surprise there, given that each team has
played only one game so far.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Brett Rumpel (guard)
most points        Daniel Rouzan (forward)
most rebounds      Seydou Traore (guard)
most assists       two tied
most steals        Perry Cowan (guard)
most blocks        Brett Rumpel (guard)
most turnovers     Shaquil Bender (guard)
most fouls         Shaquil Bender (guard)

                                                           1-0           1-0
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Manhattan
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall                                        #      #       #      #   
Sagarin Predictor                             98.3     #      #       #      #    
Sagarin Golden Mean                                    #      #       #      #    
Sagarin Recent Games                                   #      #       #      #    
Sagarin Eigenvector                                 
Massey                 +31.00   84   53       99       #  3   #234    #192   #111
Pomeroy                +32.98   86   53                #  3   #251    #325   #146
Greenfield             +36.00   88   52                #  2   #168    #305   # 99
Dunkel                 +40.00   94   54                #  8           #213
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +35.50   88   52                                          
Dolphin Predictive                                     #      #       #      #   
Real Time                                              #      #       #      #    
Seven Overtimes        +16.00   77   60       81       #  8   #236    #238   #178
DPPI                   +24.00   83   59       99.9     #      #       #      #    
ESPN BPI               +25.20                 98.6     #  1   #       #314   #   
Whitlock                                               #      #       #      #   
Colley Matrix                                          #      #       #      #   
NCAA NET                                               #              #   
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents                      
Massey composite                                       #              #   
Pomeroy offense                                        #  9           #342
Pomeroy defense                                        #  2           #265
Pomeroy tempo                                          #180           #242
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +30.08   85.7 54.7     95.4
scatter                  7.85    5.3  3.4      8.1

Here is Kansas' season, with predicted margins based on last season's final
ratings.  Normally you could just add those probabilities of victory to compute
the expected number of wins, but I have all possible opponents listed for the
Maui Invitational, which would skew the result upward by about 2 wins.  What a
loaded field this year.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #220 NC Central                  99  56   +23.32   +19.68
HOME   #290 Manhattan                            +27.77             0.994
NEUT   # 22 Kentucky                              +3.83             0.636
Div2        Chaminade         Game 1          

NEUT   #  4 UCLA              Game 2              -1.38             0.450
NEUT   # 14 Marquette         Game 2              +2.55             0.592

NEUT   #  8 Gonzaga           Game 3              +0.00             0.500
NEUT   # 10 Purdue            Game 3              +0.69             0.525
NEUT   # 95 Syracuse          Game 3             +11.77             0.858
NEUT   #  5 Tennessee         Game 3              -1.27             0.454

HOME   #350 Eastern Illinois                     +33.50             0.999
HOME   #  3 Connecticut                           +0.64             0.523
HOME   #305 Kansas City(UMKC)                    +28.56             0.995
HOME   # 56 Missouri                             +10.31             0.826
AWAY   # 16 Indiana                               -0.09             0.497
HOME   # 77 Yale                                 +12.59             0.874
NEUT   # 98 Wichita State                        +11.92             0.861
HOME   # 19 TCU                                   +6.52             0.723
AWAY   # 61 Central Florida(UCF)                  +4.85             0.670
HOME   # 57 Oklahoma                             +10.42             0.828
AWAY   # 44 Oklahoma State                        +2.57             0.592
AWAY   # 24 West Virginia                         +0.85             0.531
HOME   # 46 Cincinnati                            +9.22             0.799
AWAY   # 30 Iowa State                            +1.24             0.545
HOME   # 44 Oklahoma State                        +8.85             0.789
HOME   #  2 Houston                               +0.14             0.505
AWAY   # 26 Kansas State                          +0.93             0.534
HOME   # 12 Baylor                                +4.47             0.658
AWAY   # 37 Texas Tech                            +2.20             0.579
AWAY   # 57 Oklahoma                              +4.14             0.647
HOME   #  6 Texas                                 +2.58             0.593
HOME   # 67 BYU                                  +11.82             0.859
AWAY   # 12 Baylor                                -1.81             0.435
HOME   # 26 Kansas State                          +7.21             0.744
AWAY   #  2 Houston                               -6.14             0.288

Here is Manhattan's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   #202 Bryant                      61  59    -8.62   +10.62
AWAY   #  7 Kansas                               -27.77             0.006