predictions for North Carolina Central game

I'm not sure what's going on with Jeff Sagarin.  Apparently USA Today
discontinued publishing his rankings, though his own web page still
exists, and he is updating his football rankings (KU cracked into his
Top 25 this week).  But I've been waiting for his starting basketball
ratings with which to do a season projection, but nothing has been
posted so far.  Nada.  Zip.  Zero.  Zilch.  But hey, it's the first
game of the season, so there's very little of actual performance on
which to base starting ratings, so maybe it's not such a big deal.
The other usual suspects are out with their predictions, however, and
there are a bunch not yet on board, as in the past.

North Carolina Central is a bottom tier team.  I wish they wouldn't
schedule cupcakes.  You'll get a better tune-up and still have a 
high probability of victory with a middle tier team.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison   (last season's stats)
===========================
Offensive Stats      NCC     KU      Defensive Stats      NCC     KU
Points/Game         71.1    75.4     Opp Points/Game     67.9    68.1
Avg Score Margin    +3.2    +7.4     Opp Effective FG %  48.9    47.0
Assists/Game        12.9    16.4     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.0     8.6
Total Rebounds/Gm   35.0    35.9     Def Rebounds/Gm     22.5    24.6
Effective FG %      50.9    52.6     Blocks/Game          3.0     3.9
Off Rebound %       29.9    27.0     Steals/Game          7.2     8.8
FTA/FGA            0.342   0.298     Personal Fouls/Gm   19.5    16.6
Turnover %          19.7    15.3   

My Stats Comparison        KU          NC Central
===================   =============   ============
performance             .               .      
inconsistency           .               .      
trend                   .               .         
mental toughness        .               .         
average total pts      143.5          139.0     

Common Opponents
================
Obviously none at this stage of the season.  This text is here simply as a
placeholder.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       (placeholder)
most points        (placeholder)
most rebounds      (placeholder)
most assists       (placeholder)
most steals        (placeholder)
most blocks        (placeholder)
most turnovers     (placeholder)
most fouls         (placeholder)

Interesting that only ESPN's BPI has Kansas ranked #1 among the computer rankings.
Massey has Houston as #1, while Pomeroy and Greenfield have Purdue as #1.

                                                           0-0           0-0
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       NC Central
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall                                        #      #       #      #   
Sagarin Predictor                             98.3     #      #       #      #    
Sagarin Golden Mean                                    #      #       #      #    
Sagarin Recent Games                                   #      #       #      #    
Sagarin Eigenvector                                 
Massey                 +29.00   85   56       99       #  2   #       #270   #   
Pomeroy                +28.00   82   54                #  2   #       #306   #   
Greenfield             +30.00   85   54.5              #  2   #       #279   #   
Dunkel                 +31.5    81   50                #              #   
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +30.00   84   54                                          
Dolphin Predictive                                     #      #       #      #   
Real Time                                              #      #       #      #    
Seven Overtimes                                        #      #       #      #   
DPPI                                                   #      #       #      #    
ESPN BPI                                               #  1   #       #295   #   
Whitlock                                               #      #       #      #   
Colley Matrix                                          #      #       #      #   
NCAA NET                                               #              #   
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents                      
Massey composite                                       #              #   
Pomeroy offense                                        #  9           #317
Pomeroy defense                                        #  1           #274
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 79           #188
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +29.70   83.4 53.7     98.7
scatter                  1.30    1.8  2.2      0.5

Here is Kansas' season, with predicted margins based on last season's final
ratings.  Normally you could just add those probabilities of victory to compute
the expected number of wins, but I have all possible opponents listed for the
Maui Invitational, which would skew the result upward by about 2 wins.  What a
loaded field this year.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----   -----
HOME   #220 NC Central                           +23.32             0.983
HOME   #290 Manhattan                            +27.77             0.994
NEUT   # 22 Kentucky                              +3.83             0.636
Div2        Chaminade         Game 1          

NEUT   #  4 UCLA              Game 2              -1.38             0.450
NEUT   # 14 Marquette         Game 2              +2.55             0.592

NEUT   #  8 Gonzaga           Game 3              +0.00             0.500
NEUT   # 10 Purdue            Game 3              +0.69             0.525
NEUT   # 95 Syracuse          Game 3             +11.77             0.858
NEUT   #  5 Tennessee         Game 3              -1.27             0.454

HOME   #350 Eastern Illinois                     +33.50             0.999
HOME   #  3 Connecticut                           +0.64             0.523
HOME   #305 Kansas City(UMKC)                    +28.56             0.995
HOME   # 56 Missouri                             +10.31             0.826
AWAY   # 16 Indiana                               -0.09             0.497
HOME   # 77 Yale                                 +12.59             0.874
NEUT   # 98 Wichita State                        +11.92             0.861
HOME   # 19 TCU                                   +6.52             0.723
AWAY   # 61 Central Florida(UCF)                  +4.85             0.670
HOME   # 57 Oklahoma                             +10.42             0.828
AWAY   # 44 Oklahoma State                        +2.57             0.592
AWAY   # 24 West Virginia                         +0.85             0.531
HOME   # 46 Cincinnati                            +9.22             0.799
AWAY   # 30 Iowa State                            +1.24             0.545
HOME   # 44 Oklahoma State                        +8.85             0.789
HOME   #  2 Houston                               +0.14             0.505
AWAY   # 26 Kansas State                          +0.93             0.534
HOME   # 12 Baylor                                +4.47             0.658
AWAY   # 37 Texas Tech                            +2.20             0.579
AWAY   # 57 Oklahoma                              +4.14             0.647
HOME   #  6 Texas                                 +2.58             0.593
HOME   # 67 BYU                                  +11.82             0.859
AWAY   # 12 Baylor                                -1.81             0.435
HOME   # 26 Kansas State                          +7.21             0.744
AWAY   #  2 Houston                               -6.14             0.288

Here is North Carolina Central's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   #  7 Kansas                               -23.32             0.017