Self and the outcome

Imagine the Chiefs playing a playoff game without Andy Reid on the field or in the booth. Playing a solid foe that presents matchup problems. That was KU yesterday.

No disrespect to any assistant coaches, but Self and Reid are at another level. That was a huge absence yesterday, and a supremely tough break (and resultant abrupt ending) for the players.

From Sam McDowell’s KC Star piece, which I just read and strongly supports the (admittedly unprovable) premise:

“For more than a decade, the Jayhawks have turned a stat that many consider a stroke of good luck — winning close games — into more of an art form. But on Saturday evening, their Pablo Picasso was confined to a hotel suite.

It’s a Hall of Fame coach relegated to a spectator. Even as his coaching staff covered adequately for a week, it had to matter at some point.

In a survey of 33 head coaches earlier this month conducted by The Athletic, 15 said they considered Self the best big-game coach in America. No other coach received even five votes.

In other words, nearly half the coaches in America think there would be a drop-off from Bill Self to literally anybody. That’s the point.

KU did not have the talent of a No. 1 seed this year. The metrics did not like the Jayhawks as much as the win-loss record did. They played above their means, because Self so routinely coaches above the mean. He wins 9% more close games than any of his counterparts, per this study from a Reddit user two years ago. It is statistical evidence that debunks the thought that games like this are a coin flip, even if they are not the best indicator of quality.

We got the anecdotal version Saturday.”

Read more at: www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-bl...0.html#storylink=cpy

Per your closing, Peter, I had texted Eric (HawkErrant) the following earlier this afternoon:

The L yesterday will go on the shelf (the shelf of missed chances) along with the COVID year, et al. This one goes down as the “Self health absence” tourney.

Dammit to Hell.