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predictions for Arkansas game

  • asteroid
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1 year 8 months ago #30744 by asteroid
"A 16 seed beating a 1 seed is no longer unprecedented, which means
you should NEVER take an NCAA Tournament opponent lightly."

Arizona, Virginia, and Purdue apparently have yet to learn this simple fact.

Been up all night chasing asteroids.  Need to get some sleep before tip-off,
so this will be short.  The DPPI is the pessimist with just a 1.9 point
margin for Kansas.  The common opponent comparison is the optimist with a
whopping 10.1 point margin for Kansas.  The average is 4.5 points with a
scatter of just 2.3 points.

The word is that Self won't be on the sideline this game.  Bummer.  How
many points is he worth?

On with the madness!

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      Ark     KU      Defensive Stats      Ark     KU
Points/Game         74.4    75.5     Opp Points/Game     67.3    67.9
Avg Score Margin    +7.1    +7.6     Opp Effective FG %  46.5    47.1
Assists/Game        13.1    16.6     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.7     8.6
Total Rebounds/Gm   35.4    36.1     Def Rebounds/Gm     23.9    24.7
Effective FG %      51.6    52.6     Blocks/Game          5.2     3.9
Off Rebound %       28.8    27.1     Steals/Game          8.5     8.9
FTA/FGA            0.390   0.293     Personal Fouls/Gm   19.1    16.4
Turnover %          15.9    15.3   

My Stats Comparison        KU           Arkansas
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.21           +0.65    
inconsistency         11.53           10.22    
trend                 +0.05 ± 0.20    -0.11 ± 0.18
mental toughness      +0.04 ± 0.24    -0.34 ± 0.21
average total pts      143.49         141.65    

Common Opponents
================
There are six common opponents, namely North Dakota State, Oklahoma (which KU
played twice), Missouri (which Arkansas played twice), Baylor (which KU played
twice), Kentucky (which Arkansas played twice), and Tennessee, giving us ten
scores to compare:

KU  +23 NDS at home (+19 neutral court)
Ark +18 NDS at home (+14 neutral court)
KU   +5 Ark nuetral ( +5 neutral court)

KU   +4 OU  at home (  0 neutral court)     KU  +23 OU  on road (+27 neutral court)
Ark +10 OU  neutral (+10 neutral court)     Ark +10 OU  neutral (+10 neutral court)
KU  -10 Ark neutral (-10 neutral court)     KU  +17 Ark neutral (+17 neutral court)

KU  +28 MU  on road (+32 neutral court)     KU  +28 MU  on road (+32 neutral court)
Ark  +6 MU  at home ( +2 neutral court)     Ark  -3 MU  on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU  +30 Ark neutral (+30 neutral court)     KU  +31 Ark neutral (+31 neutral court)

KU   -6 BU  on road ( -2 neutral court)     KU  +16 BU  at home (+12 neutral court)
Ark  -3 BU  on road ( +1 neutral court)     Ark  -3 BU  on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU   -3 Ark neutral ( -3 neutral court)     KU  +11 Ark neutral (+11 neutral court)

KU   +9 UK  on road (+13 neutral court)     KU   +9 UK  on road (+13 neutral court)
Ark +15 UK  on road (+19 neutral court)     Ark  -9 UK  at home (-13 neutral court)
KU   -6 Ark neutral ( -6 neutral court)     KU  +26 Ark neutral (+26 neutral court)

KU  -14 Ten neutral (-14 neutral court)
Ark -18 Ten on road (-14 neutral court)
KU    0 Ark neutral (  0 neutral court)

Six of the comparisons favor Kansas, three favor Arkansas, and the Tennessee
comparison is a wash.  The average is 10.1 points in favor of Kansas with a
scatter of 15.3 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Anthony Black (guard)
most points        Ricky Council IV (guard)
most rebounds      Trevon Brazile (forward)
most assists       Anthony Black (guard)
most steals        Anthony Black (guard)
most blocks        Makhel Mitchell (forward)
most turnovers     Anthony Black (guard)
most fouls         Jordan Walsh (guard)

Leading rebounder Trevon Brazile is out for the season with a knee injury.

                                                          28-7          21-13
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Arkansas
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +3.99   74   70       65       #  6   #  1    # 19   # 24
Sagarin Predictor       +2.99   74   71       60.8     #  7   #  1    # 16   # 24 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +4.94   75   70                #  5   #  1    # 22   # 24 
Sagarin Recent Games    +4.04   74   70                #  6   #  1    # 19   # 24 
Sagarin Eigenvector     +8.63   76   68       78    
Massey                  +4.00   74   70       64       #  3   #  1    # 30   # 22
Pomeroy                 +3.20   73   70                #  9   #  1    # 19   # 21
Greenfield              +3.50   73.5 70                #  8   #  1    # 14   # 15
Dunkel                  +6.00   74   68                #  7           # 47
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +4.00   73.5 69.5                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +2.96   73   70       60.3     #  8   #  1    # 17   # 19
Real Time               +3.00   71   68       54.8     #  5   #  4    # 35   #  1 
Seven Overtimes         +3.00   73   70       71       # 11   #  2    # 21   # 41
DPPI                    +1.90   72   70       55.2     #  8   #  1    # 13   # 15 
ESPN BPI                +2.60                 59.3     #  9   #  1    # 14   # 23
Whitlock                +3.84                          #  5   #  1    # 23   # 10
Colley Matrix           +7.89                          #  2   #  1    # 31   #  4
NCAA NET                                               #  9           # 21
LRMC                                                   #  8   #  2    # 26   # 10
common opponents       +10.10         
Massey composite                                       #  5           # 25
Pomeroy offense                                        # 25           # 55
Pomeroy defense                                        #  9           # 13
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 69           # 48
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +4.48   73.6 69.6     63.2
scatter                  2.25    1.2  0.9      7.5

Here is Kansas' season, with future games based on the assumption that the
higher seed will advance:

                                                                            CUMU.
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.   PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----   -----
HOME   #320 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           89  64   +29.92    -4.92
HOME   #219 North Dakota State          82  59   +23.45    -0.45
NEUT   # 17 Duke                        69  64    +3.23    +1.77
HOME   #126 Southern Utah               82  76   +18.19   -12.19
NEUT   # 51 NC State                    80  74    +6.86    -0.86
NEUT   # 54 Wisconsin                   69  68    +7.39    -6.39
NEUT   #  4 Tennessee                   50  64    -1.28   -12.72
HOME   #293 Texas Southern              87  55   +28.07    +3.93
HOME   # 58 Seton Hall                  91  65   +10.79   +15.21
AWAY   # 50 Missouri                    95  67    +3.71   +24.29
HOME   # 14 Indiana                     84  62    +5.97   +16.03
HOME   #165 Harvard                     68  54   +20.74    -6.74
HOME   # 38 Oklahoma State              69  67    +8.78    -6.78
AWAY   # 35 Texas Tech                  75  72    +2.25    +0.75
AWAY   # 25 West Virginia               76  62    +0.95   +13.05
HOME   # 55 Oklahoma                    79  75   +10.53    -6.53
HOME   # 30 Iowa State                  62  60    +7.63    -5.63
AWAY   # 28 Kansas State                82  83    +1.25    -2.25
HOME   # 18 TCU                         60  83    +6.58   -29.58
AWAY   # 11 Baylor                      69  75    -2.01    -3.99
AWAY   # 21 Kentucky                    77  68    +0.66    +8.34
HOME   # 28 Kansas State                90  78    +7.53    +4.47
AWAY   # 30 Iowa State                  53  68    +1.35   -16.35
HOME   #  6 Texas                       88  80    +2.51    +5.49
AWAY   # 55 Oklahoma                    78  55    +4.25   +18.75
AWAY   # 38 Oklahoma State              87  76    +2.50    +8.50
HOME   # 11 Baylor                      87  71    +4.27   +11.73
AWAY   # 18 TCU                         63  58    +0.30    +4.70
HOME   # 25 West Virginia               76  74    +7.23    -5.23
HOME   # 35 Texas Tech                  67  63    +8.53    -4.53
AWAY   #  6 Texas                       59  75    -3.77   -12.23
NEUT   # 25 West Virginia               78  61    +4.09   +12.91
NEUT   # 30 Iowa State                  71  58    +4.49    +8.51
NEUT   #  6 Texas                       56  76    -0.63   -19.37
NEUT   #244 Howard                      96  68   +22.22    +5.78
NEUT   # 16 Arkansas                              +2.99             0.608   0.608
NEUT   #  5 Connecticut                           -0.66             0.477   0.290
NEUT   #  3 UCLA                                  -1.46             0.448   0.130
NEUT   #  2 Houston                               -2.80             0.402   0.052
NEUT   #  1 Alabama                               -3.05             0.393   0.021

Here is Arkansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #219 North Dakota State          76  58   +20.46    -2.46
HOME   #134 Fordham                     74  48   +15.79   +10.21
HOME   #155 South Dakota State          71  56   +17.03    -2.03
NEUT   #238 Louisville                  80  54   +18.79    +7.21
NEUT   # 12 Creighton                   87  90    -1.50    -1.50
NEUT   # 27 San Diego State             78  74    +1.39    +2.61
HOME   #142 Troy                        74  61   +16.04    -3.04
HOME   #118 San Jose State              99  58   +14.35   +26.65
HOME   #122 NC Greensboro               65  58   +14.81    -7.81
NEUT   # 55 Oklahoma                    88  78    +4.40    +5.60
HOME   # 82 Bradley                     76  57   +10.66    +8.34
HOME   #186 NC Asheville                85  51   +18.64   +15.36
AWAY   #115 LSU                         57  60    +7.89   -10.89
HOME   # 50 Missouri                    74  68    +7.00    -1.00
AWAY   # 20 Auburn                      59  72    -2.35   -10.65
HOME   #  1 Alabama                     69  84    -2.90   -12.10
AWAY   # 71 Vanderbilt                  84  97    +3.12   -16.12
AWAY   # 50 Missouri                    76  79    +0.72    -3.72
HOME   # 92 Mississippi                 69  57   +11.85    +0.15
HOME   #115 LSU                         60  40   +14.17    +5.83
AWAY   # 11 Baylor                      64  67    -5.00    +2.00
HOME   # 32 Texas A&M                   81  70    +4.88    +6.12
AWAY   #185 South Carolina              65  63   +12.31   -10.31
AWAY   # 21 Kentucky                    88  73    -2.33   +17.33
HOME   # 48 Mississippi State           64  70    +6.75   -12.75
AWAY   # 32 Texas A&M                   56  62    -1.40    -4.60
HOME   # 56 Florida                     84  65    +7.70   +11.30
HOME   #141 Georgia                     97  65   +16.02   +15.98
AWAY   #  1 Alabama                     83  86    -9.18    +6.18
AWAY   #  4 Tennessee                   57  75    -7.41   -10.59
HOME   # 21 Kentucky                    79  88    +3.95   -12.95
NEUT   # 20 Auburn                      76  73    +0.79    +2.21
NEUT   # 32 Texas A&M                   61  67    +1.74    -7.74
NEUT   # 19 Illinois                    73  63    +0.75    +9.25
NEUT   #  7 Kansas                                -2.99             0.392
The following user(s) said Thank You: sasnak, Bayhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, hoshi, USAF Jayhawk, newtonhawk

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