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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Arkansas game
- asteroid
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1 year 8 months ago #30744
by asteroid
"A 16 seed beating a 1 seed is no longer unprecedented, which means
you should NEVER take an NCAA Tournament opponent lightly."
Arizona, Virginia, and Purdue apparently have yet to learn this simple fact.
Been up all night chasing asteroids. Need to get some sleep before tip-off,
so this will be short. The DPPI is the pessimist with just a 1.9 point
margin for Kansas. The common opponent comparison is the optimist with a
whopping 10.1 point margin for Kansas. The average is 4.5 points with a
scatter of just 2.3 points.
The word is that Self won't be on the sideline this game. Bummer. How
many points is he worth?
On with the madness!
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats Ark KU Defensive Stats Ark KU
Points/Game 74.4 75.5 Opp Points/Game 67.3 67.9
Avg Score Margin +7.1 +7.6 Opp Effective FG % 46.5 47.1
Assists/Game 13.1 16.6 Off Rebounds/Gm 8.7 8.6
Total Rebounds/Gm 35.4 36.1 Def Rebounds/Gm 23.9 24.7
Effective FG % 51.6 52.6 Blocks/Game 5.2 3.9
Off Rebound % 28.8 27.1 Steals/Game 8.5 8.9
FTA/FGA 0.390 0.293 Personal Fouls/Gm 19.1 16.4
Turnover % 15.9 15.3
My Stats Comparison KU Arkansas
=================== ============= ============
performance +0.21 +0.65
inconsistency 11.53 10.22
trend +0.05 ± 0.20 -0.11 ± 0.18
mental toughness +0.04 ± 0.24 -0.34 ± 0.21
average total pts 143.49 141.65
Common Opponents
================
There are six common opponents, namely North Dakota State, Oklahoma (which KU
played twice), Missouri (which Arkansas played twice), Baylor (which KU played
twice), Kentucky (which Arkansas played twice), and Tennessee, giving us ten
scores to compare:
KU +23 NDS at home (+19 neutral court)
Ark +18 NDS at home (+14 neutral court)
KU +5 Ark nuetral ( +5 neutral court)
KU +4 OU at home ( 0 neutral court) KU +23 OU on road (+27 neutral court)
Ark +10 OU neutral (+10 neutral court) Ark +10 OU neutral (+10 neutral court)
KU -10 Ark neutral (-10 neutral court) KU +17 Ark neutral (+17 neutral court)
KU +28 MU on road (+32 neutral court) KU +28 MU on road (+32 neutral court)
Ark +6 MU at home ( +2 neutral court) Ark -3 MU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU +30 Ark neutral (+30 neutral court) KU +31 Ark neutral (+31 neutral court)
KU -6 BU on road ( -2 neutral court) KU +16 BU at home (+12 neutral court)
Ark -3 BU on road ( +1 neutral court) Ark -3 BU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU -3 Ark neutral ( -3 neutral court) KU +11 Ark neutral (+11 neutral court)
KU +9 UK on road (+13 neutral court) KU +9 UK on road (+13 neutral court)
Ark +15 UK on road (+19 neutral court) Ark -9 UK at home (-13 neutral court)
KU -6 Ark neutral ( -6 neutral court) KU +26 Ark neutral (+26 neutral court)
KU -14 Ten neutral (-14 neutral court)
Ark -18 Ten on road (-14 neutral court)
KU 0 Ark neutral ( 0 neutral court)
Six of the comparisons favor Kansas, three favor Arkansas, and the Tennessee
comparison is a wash. The average is 10.1 points in favor of Kansas with a
scatter of 15.3 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Anthony Black (guard)
most points Ricky Council IV (guard)
most rebounds Trevon Brazile (forward)
most assists Anthony Black (guard)
most steals Anthony Black (guard)
most blocks Makhel Mitchell (forward)
most turnovers Anthony Black (guard)
most fouls Jordan Walsh (guard)
Leading rebounder Trevon Brazile is out for the season with a knee injury.
28-7 21-13
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Arkansas
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall +3.99 74 70 65 # 6 # 1 # 19 # 24
Sagarin Predictor +2.99 74 71 60.8 # 7 # 1 # 16 # 24
Sagarin Golden Mean +4.94 75 70 # 5 # 1 # 22 # 24
Sagarin Recent Games +4.04 74 70 # 6 # 1 # 19 # 24
Sagarin Eigenvector +8.63 76 68 78
Massey +4.00 74 70 64 # 3 # 1 # 30 # 22
Pomeroy +3.20 73 70 # 9 # 1 # 19 # 21
Greenfield +3.50 73.5 70 # 8 # 1 # 14 # 15
Dunkel +6.00 74 68 # 7 # 47
Vegas (via Dunkel) +4.00 73.5 69.5
Dolphin Predictive +2.96 73 70 60.3 # 8 # 1 # 17 # 19
Real Time +3.00 71 68 54.8 # 5 # 4 # 35 # 1
Seven Overtimes +3.00 73 70 71 # 11 # 2 # 21 # 41
DPPI +1.90 72 70 55.2 # 8 # 1 # 13 # 15
ESPN BPI +2.60 59.3 # 9 # 1 # 14 # 23
Whitlock +3.84 # 5 # 1 # 23 # 10
Colley Matrix +7.89 # 2 # 1 # 31 # 4
NCAA NET # 9 # 21
LRMC # 8 # 2 # 26 # 10
common opponents +10.10
Massey composite # 5 # 25
Pomeroy offense # 25 # 55
Pomeroy defense # 9 # 13
Pomeroy tempo # 69 # 48
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +4.48 73.6 69.6 63.2
scatter 2.25 1.2 0.9 7.5
Here is Kansas' season, with future games based on the assumption that the
higher seed will advance:
CUMU.
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB. PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- ----- -----
HOME #320 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 89 64 +29.92 -4.92
HOME #219 North Dakota State 82 59 +23.45 -0.45
NEUT # 17 Duke 69 64 +3.23 +1.77
HOME #126 Southern Utah 82 76 +18.19 -12.19
NEUT # 51 NC State 80 74 +6.86 -0.86
NEUT # 54 Wisconsin 69 68 +7.39 -6.39
NEUT # 4 Tennessee 50 64 -1.28 -12.72
HOME #293 Texas Southern 87 55 +28.07 +3.93
HOME # 58 Seton Hall 91 65 +10.79 +15.21
AWAY # 50 Missouri 95 67 +3.71 +24.29
HOME # 14 Indiana 84 62 +5.97 +16.03
HOME #165 Harvard 68 54 +20.74 -6.74
HOME # 38 Oklahoma State 69 67 +8.78 -6.78
AWAY # 35 Texas Tech 75 72 +2.25 +0.75
AWAY # 25 West Virginia 76 62 +0.95 +13.05
HOME # 55 Oklahoma 79 75 +10.53 -6.53
HOME # 30 Iowa State 62 60 +7.63 -5.63
AWAY # 28 Kansas State 82 83 +1.25 -2.25
HOME # 18 TCU 60 83 +6.58 -29.58
AWAY # 11 Baylor 69 75 -2.01 -3.99
AWAY # 21 Kentucky 77 68 +0.66 +8.34
HOME # 28 Kansas State 90 78 +7.53 +4.47
AWAY # 30 Iowa State 53 68 +1.35 -16.35
HOME # 6 Texas 88 80 +2.51 +5.49
AWAY # 55 Oklahoma 78 55 +4.25 +18.75
AWAY # 38 Oklahoma State 87 76 +2.50 +8.50
HOME # 11 Baylor 87 71 +4.27 +11.73
AWAY # 18 TCU 63 58 +0.30 +4.70
HOME # 25 West Virginia 76 74 +7.23 -5.23
HOME # 35 Texas Tech 67 63 +8.53 -4.53
AWAY # 6 Texas 59 75 -3.77 -12.23
NEUT # 25 West Virginia 78 61 +4.09 +12.91
NEUT # 30 Iowa State 71 58 +4.49 +8.51
NEUT # 6 Texas 56 76 -0.63 -19.37
NEUT #244 Howard 96 68 +22.22 +5.78
NEUT # 16 Arkansas +2.99 0.608 0.608
NEUT # 5 Connecticut -0.66 0.477 0.290
NEUT # 3 UCLA -1.46 0.448 0.130
NEUT # 2 Houston -2.80 0.402 0.052
NEUT # 1 Alabama -3.05 0.393 0.021
Here is Arkansas' season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #219 North Dakota State 76 58 +20.46 -2.46
HOME #134 Fordham 74 48 +15.79 +10.21
HOME #155 South Dakota State 71 56 +17.03 -2.03
NEUT #238 Louisville 80 54 +18.79 +7.21
NEUT # 12 Creighton 87 90 -1.50 -1.50
NEUT # 27 San Diego State 78 74 +1.39 +2.61
HOME #142 Troy 74 61 +16.04 -3.04
HOME #118 San Jose State 99 58 +14.35 +26.65
HOME #122 NC Greensboro 65 58 +14.81 -7.81
NEUT # 55 Oklahoma 88 78 +4.40 +5.60
HOME # 82 Bradley 76 57 +10.66 +8.34
HOME #186 NC Asheville 85 51 +18.64 +15.36
AWAY #115 LSU 57 60 +7.89 -10.89
HOME # 50 Missouri 74 68 +7.00 -1.00
AWAY # 20 Auburn 59 72 -2.35 -10.65
HOME # 1 Alabama 69 84 -2.90 -12.10
AWAY # 71 Vanderbilt 84 97 +3.12 -16.12
AWAY # 50 Missouri 76 79 +0.72 -3.72
HOME # 92 Mississippi 69 57 +11.85 +0.15
HOME #115 LSU 60 40 +14.17 +5.83
AWAY # 11 Baylor 64 67 -5.00 +2.00
HOME # 32 Texas A&M 81 70 +4.88 +6.12
AWAY #185 South Carolina 65 63 +12.31 -10.31
AWAY # 21 Kentucky 88 73 -2.33 +17.33
HOME # 48 Mississippi State 64 70 +6.75 -12.75
AWAY # 32 Texas A&M 56 62 -1.40 -4.60
HOME # 56 Florida 84 65 +7.70 +11.30
HOME #141 Georgia 97 65 +16.02 +15.98
AWAY # 1 Alabama 83 86 -9.18 +6.18
AWAY # 4 Tennessee 57 75 -7.41 -10.59
HOME # 21 Kentucky 79 88 +3.95 -12.95
NEUT # 20 Auburn 76 73 +0.79 +2.21
NEUT # 32 Texas A&M 61 67 +1.74 -7.74
NEUT # 19 Illinois 73 63 +0.75 +9.25
NEUT # 7 Kansas -2.99 0.392
The following user(s) said Thank You: sasnak, Bayhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, hoshi, USAF Jayhawk, newtonhawk
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