updated predictions for Howard game

The way I see it, the key to a deep run in this NCAA Tournament is
to stay out of foul trouble, avoid injuries, and hope McCullar's
back spasms are in the rear view mirror.  Let's face it:  the KU
bench is short.  There have been flashes of brilliance, but more
often than not, bench production has been on the low side.  We've
seen what can happen to Harris when he gets tired; his turnover
rate increases, and his scoring drops off significantly.  The hope 
is that the longer timeouts in tournament games and the absence of
any games on consecutive days, let alone three in three days that
hurt Harris in the finale against Texas, will keep Harris more
rested, allowing for less reliance on Pettiford and Yesufu.  Also,
when Udeh is brought in to give someone else a breather, Harris is
the one who instigates those lobs that have given Udeh such a high
shooting percentage.  McCullar's health is also crucial to a deep
run.  The Kansas starters can match up with anybody in the field,
but the bench does not.  Lastly, of crucial importance is the sixth
man on the team, namely Bill Self.  Norm Roberts did a fine job in
Self's absence, with a 6-1 record, compared to Self's 21-6 record,
but other than the first-round game, we're looking at one-possession
affairs, so a tiny difference in coaching could make the difference
between a deep run and an early exit.  I suspect that seasoned fans
would agree with most of this analysis, but feel free to add your
own comments.

Howard has played only five top tier opponents.  They traveled to
Rupp Arena for their season opener and lost by 32 to what is now
#22 Kentucky, playing 11 points below expectation in the process.
They lost by just 10 at #56 VCU, playing 7 points above expectation.
But there was one of those rare three-sigma events when they played
almost 31 points below expectation in a 46 point loss at #79 Yale.
A 26 point loss to #104 James Madison represented over 20 points
below expectation.  And lastly there was a 15 point below expectation
performance in a 23 point loss to #113 Belmont on a neutral court.
Howard's performance against middle and bottom tier opponents just
doesn't seem very relevant.

In addition to Kentucky, there is Harvard as a common opponent, and
the Bison won that game on the road by 12 points, playing 19 points
above expectation in the process.  Although Kansas beat Harvard by
14 points, that was at home, so with the home court advantage taken
into account, Howard played the better game.  A bit shocking, but
it makes the common opponent comparison work out to a value entirely
consistent with the other prognostications.

A 16 seed beating a 1 seed is no longer unprecedented, which means
you should NEVER take an NCAA Tournament opponent lightly.  But if
the Jayahwks take care of business, there would seem to be the
opportunity to rest McCullar a bit more before things get interesting
on Saturday.

As you might expect from a mid-major that won their conference
tournament, Howard has a positive trend, and it is very statistically
significant.  Their mental toughness rating has a similar significance
to it, but is negative, which negates the trend advantage.  Howard has
played five games more than 20 points above or below expectation and
another two games between 18 and 20 points above expectation, so that
13.3 point inconsistency rating is well-deserved.

Real Time is the pessimist of the bunch, favoring Kansas by a mere
11 points.  At the other extreme is Dunkel with a 28.5 point margin.
The rest fall mostly in the 16 to 24 point range, averaging 20.6 points
with a 3.9 point scatter.

Let the madness begin!

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      How     KU      Defensive Stats      How     KU
Points/Game         73.6    74.9     Opp Points/Game     72.6    67.9
Avg Score Margin    +1.0    +7.0     Opp Effective FG %  50.6    47.1
Assists/Game        14.3    16.4     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.9     8.5
Total Rebounds/Gm   35.4    35.9     Def Rebounds/Gm     22.3    24.8
Effective FG %      52.0    52.4     Blocks/Game          3.0     3.8
Off Rebound %       32.0    26.7     Steals/Game          7.0     8.8
FTA/FGA            0.328   0.296     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.5    16.6
Turnover %          19.5    15.3   

My Stats Comparison        KU            Howard
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.19           +1.29    
inconsistency         11.59           13.27    
trend                 +0.02 ± 0.21    +0.61 ± 0.23
mental toughness      +0.07 ± 0.25    -0.61 ± 0.26
average total pts      142.88         146.47    

Common Opponents
================
There are two common opponents, namely Kentucky and Harvard:

KU   +9 UK  on road (+13 neutral court)
How -32 UK  on road (-28 neutral court)
KU  +45 How neutral (+45 neutral court)

KU  +14 Har at home (+10 neutral court)
How +12 Har on road (+16 neutral court)
KU   -6 How neutral ( -6 neutral court)

A bit of a surprise to see the Harvard comparison favor Howard.  But the Kentucky
comparison decidedly favors Kansas, so the average is 19.5 points in favor of Kansas,
with a scatter of 36.06 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Elijah Hawkins (guard)
most points        Elijah Hawkins (guard)
most rebounds      William Settle (forward)
most assists       Elijah Hawkins (guard)
most steals        Elijah Hawkins (guard)
most blocks        William Settle (forward)
most turnovers     Elijah Hawkins (guard)
most fouls         Shy Odom (forward)

Put Harris on Hawkins, and the Jayhawks should control the game.

                                                          27-7          22-12
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Howard
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +20.87   84   64       94       #  7   #  1    #220   #319
Sagarin Predictor      +21.57   85   63       95.8     #  9   #  1    #235   #319 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +22.73   85   63                #  5   #  1    #235   #319 
Sagarin Recent Games   +19.70   84   64                #  8   #  1    #205   #319 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +26.66   87   61       96    
Massey                 +22.00   83   61       96       #  4   #  1    #221   #324
Pomeroy                +19.12   73   72                #  9   #  1    #215   #314
Greenfield             +21.00   83   62                #  8   #  1    #225   #294
Dunkel                 +28.50   83   55                #  8           #104
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +21.50   84   62                                          
Dolphin Predictive     +20.81   84   63       96.5     #  8   #  1    #181   #280
Real Time              +11.00   74   63       70.8     #  5   #  4    #156   #325 
Seven Overtimes        +21.00   83   62       87       # 12   #  1    #249   #166
DPPI                   +15.80   80   64       84.9     #  8   #  1    #231   #310 
ESPN BPI               +24.10                 97.2     # 10   #  1    #224   #311
Whitlock               +16.14                          #  5   #  1    #186   #314
Colley Matrix          +19.33                          #  2   #  1    #160   #286
NCAA NET                                               #  9           #214
LRMC                                                   #  8   #  2    #231   #324
common opponents       +19.50         
Massey composite                                       #  4           #198
Pomeroy offense                                        # 29           #204
Pomeroy defense                                        #  7           #212
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 79           # 99
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +20.57   80.9 62.5     89.5
scatter                  3.67    4.6  4.6     11.3

Here is Kansas' season, with future games based on the assumption that the
higher seed will advance:

                                                                            CUMU.
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.   PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----   -----
HOME   #319 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           89  64   +29.75    -4.75
HOME   #219 North Dakota State          82  59   +23.35    -0.35
NEUT   # 18 Duke                        69  64    +3.37    +1.63
HOME   #126 Southern Utah               82  76   +18.02   -12.02
NEUT   # 49 NC State                    80  74    +6.52    -0.52
NEUT   # 55 Wisconsin                   69  68    +7.33    -6.33
NEUT   #  3 Tennessee                   50  64    -1.68   -12.32
HOME   #292 Texas Southern              87  55   +27.89    +4.11
HOME   # 58 Seton Hall                  91  65   +10.69   +15.31
AWAY   # 53 Missouri                    95  67    +4.15   +23.85
HOME   # 14 Indiana                     84  62    +5.99   +16.01
HOME   #167 Harvard                     68  54   +20.61    -6.61
HOME   # 39 Oklahoma State              69  67    +8.64    -6.64
AWAY   # 36 Texas Tech                  75  72    +2.16    +0.84
AWAY   # 21 West Virginia               76  62    +0.68   +13.32
HOME   # 54 Oklahoma                    79  75   +10.44    -6.44
HOME   # 24 Iowa State                  62  60    +7.03    -5.03
AWAY   # 30 Kansas State                82  83    +1.17    -2.17
HOME   # 17 TCU                         60  83    +6.32   -29.32
AWAY   # 11 Baylor                      69  75    -1.98    -4.02
AWAY   # 22 Kentucky                    77  68    +0.71    +8.29
HOME   # 30 Kansas State                90  78    +7.43    +4.57
AWAY   # 24 Iowa State                  53  68    +0.77   -15.77
HOME   #  5 Texas                       88  80    +2.50    +5.50
AWAY   # 54 Oklahoma                    78  55    +4.18   +18.82
AWAY   # 39 Oklahoma State              87  76    +2.38    +8.62
HOME   # 11 Baylor                      87  71    +4.28   +11.72
AWAY   # 17 TCU                         63  58    +0.06    +4.94
HOME   # 21 West Virginia               76  74    +6.94    -4.94
HOME   # 36 Texas Tech                  67  63    +8.42    -4.42
AWAY   #  5 Texas                       59  75    -3.76   -12.24
NEUT   # 21 West Virginia               78  61    +3.81   +13.19
NEUT   # 24 Iowa State                  71  58    +3.90    +9.10
NEUT   #  5 Texas                       56  76    -0.63   -19.37
NEUT   #235 Howard                               +21.57             0.958   0.958
NEUT   # 16 Arkansas                              +3.08             0.607   0.582
NEUT   #  6 Connecticut                           -0.59             0.479   0.279
NEUT   #  4 UCLA                                  -1.39             0.451   0.126
NEUT   #  1 Houston                               -3.22             0.388   0.049
NEUT   #  2 Alabama                               -3.05             0.394   0.019

Here is Howard's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   # 22 Kentucky                    63  95   -20.86   -11.14
Div2        District of Columbia        87  74
AWAY   #196 George Washington           75  85    -5.75    -4.25
Div3        Gallaudet                  108  56
HOME   #104 James Madison               69  95    -5.70   -20.30
NEUT   #152 Wyoming                     71  78    -5.10    -1.90
NEUT   #183 Buffalo                     63  59    -3.32    +7.32
NEUT   #113 Belmont                     73  96    -7.74   -15.26
AWAY   #324 Austin Peay                 56  55    +2.51    -1.51
AWAY   # 79 Yale                        40  86   -14.97   -31.03
AWAY   #342 Hampton                     65  74    +4.76   -13.76
AWAY   # 56 VCU(Va. Commonwealth)       60  70   -17.36    +7.36
HOME   #216 Fla. International          71  59    +1.60   +10.40
AWAY   #167 Harvard                     66  54    -7.22   +19.22
HOME   #279 Mount St. Mary's            63  62    +5.82    -4.82
HOME   #210 La Salle                    76  80    +1.24    -5.24
HOME   #358 Delaware State              84  64   +14.50    +5.50
AWAY   #294 Md.-Eastern Shore(UMES)     73  82    +0.13    -9.13
AWAY   #202 Norfolk State               86  84    -5.16    +7.16
HOME   #237 Morehead State              89  65    +3.16   +20.84
HOME   #328 Morgan State                88  56    +9.08   +22.92
HOME   #344 Coppin State                90  76   +11.16    +2.84
HOME   #220 NC Central                  71  67    +1.82    +2.18
HOME   #355 SC State                   100  74   +13.42   +12.58
AWAY   #358 Delaware State              86  85    +8.24    -7.24
HOME   #294 Md.-Eastern Shore(UMES)     78  69    +6.39    +2.61
AWAY   #344 Coppin State                80  70    +4.90    +5.10
AWAY   #328 Morgan State                76  89    +2.82   -15.82
AWAY   #220 NC Central                  60  68    -4.44    -3.56
AWAY   #355 SC State                    82  78    +7.16    -3.16
HOME   #202 Norfolk State               87  67    +1.10   +18.90
NEUT   #355 SC State                    91  55   +10.29   +25.71
NEUT   #294 Md.-Eastern Shore(UMES)     74  55    +3.26   +15.74
NEUT   #202 Norfolk State               65  64    -2.03    +3.03
NEUT   #  9 Kansas                               -21.57             0.042