early predictions for Howard game

Howard has played only five top tier opponents.  They traveled to
Rupp Arena for their season opener and lost by 32 to what is now
#21 Kentucky, playing 11 points below expectation in the process.
They lost by just 10 at #55 VCU, playing 7 points above expectation.
But there was one of those rare three-sigma events when they played
almost 31 points below expectation in a 46 point loss at #78 Yale.
A 26 point loss to #105 James Madison represented over 20 points
below expectation.  And lastly there was a 15 point below expectation
performance in a 23 point loss to Belmont on a neutral court.

In addition to Kentucky, there is Harvard as a common opponent, and
the Bison won that game on the road by 12 points, playing 19 points
above expectation in the process.  Although Kansas beat Harvard by
14 points, that was at home, so with the home court advantage taken
into account, Howard played the better game.

A 16 seed beating a 1 seed is no longer unprecedented, which means
you should NEVER take an NCAA Tournament opponent lightly.  But if
the Jayahwks take care of business, there would seem to be the
opportunity to rest McCullar a bit more before things get interesting
on Saturday.

As you might expect from a mid-major that won their conference
tournament, Howard has a positive trend, and it is very statistically
significant.  Their mental toughness rating has a similar significance
to it, but is negative, which negates the trend advantage.  Howard has
played five games more than 20 points above or below expectation and
another two games between 18 and 20 points above expectation, so that
13.2 point inconsistency rating is well-deserved.

The Sagarin ratings may change slightly based on NIT and First Four
games that get played, but I've gone ahead and computed the margins
for the four available rating methods, but I don't expect Sagarin to
post his point total predictions until the day of the game, so I
don't have scores yet for Sagarin.  Real Time is the pessimist of
the bunch, favoring Kansas by a mere 11 points.  At the other
extreme is Dunkel with a 28.5 point margin.  The rest fall in the
16 to 24 point range, averaging 20.6 points with a 3.7 point scatter.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      How     KU      Defensive Stats      How     KU
Points/Game         73.6    74.9     Opp Points/Game     72.6    67.9
Avg Score Margin    +1.0    +7.0     Opp Effective FG %  50.6    47.1
Assists/Game        14.3    16.4     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.9     8.5
Total Rebounds/Gm   35.4    35.9     Def Rebounds/Gm     22.3    24.8
Effective FG %      52.0    52.4     Blocks/Game          3.0     3.8
Off Rebound %       32.0    26.7     Steals/Game          7.0     8.8
FTA/FGA            0.328   0.296     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.5    16.6
Turnover %          19.5    15.3   

My Stats Comparison        KU             Howard
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.14           +1.29    
inconsistency         11.61           13.22    
trend                 +0.02 ± 0.21    +0.60 ± 0.23
mental toughness      +0.08 ± 0.25    -0.61 ± 0.26
average total pts      142.88         146.47    

Common Opponents
================
There are two common opponents, namely Kentucky and Harvard:

KU   +9 UK  on road (+13 neutral court)
How -32 UK  on road (-28 neutral court)
KU  +45 How neutral (+45 neutral court)

KU  +14 Har at home (+10 neutral court)
How +12 Har on road (+16 neutral court)
KU   -6 How neutral ( -6 neutral court)

A bit of a surprise to see the Harvard comparison favor Howard.  But the Kentucky
comparison decidedly favors Kansas, so the average is 19.5 points in favor of Kansas,
with a scatter of 36.06 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Elijah Hawkins (guard)
most points        Elijah Hawkins (guard)
most rebounds      William Settle (forward)
most assists       Elijah Hawkins (guard)
most steals        Elijah Hawkins (guard)
most blocks        William Settle (forward)
most turnovers     Elijah Hawkins (guard)
most fouls         Shy Odom (forward)

Put Harris on Hawkins, and the Jayhawks should control the game.

                                                          27-7          22-12
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Howard
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +20.95                          #  7   #  1    #220   #319
Sagarin Predictor      +21.68                          #  9   #  1    #235   #319 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +22.80                          #  5   #  1    #235   #319 
Sagarin Recent Games   +19.76                          #  8   #  1    #205   #319 
Sagarin Eigenvector                                 
Massey                 +22.00   83   61       96       #  4   #  1    #221   #324
Pomeroy                +19.12   73   72                #  9   #  1    #215   #314
Greenfield             +21.00   83   62                #  8   #  1    #225   #294
Dunkel                 +28.50   83   55                #  8           #104
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +21.50   84   62                                          
Dolphin Predictive     +20.81   84   63       96.5     #  8   #  1    #181   #280
Real Time              +11.00   74   63       70.8     #  5   #  4    #156   #325 
Seven Overtimes        +21.00   83   62       87       # 12   #  1    #249   #166
DPPI                                                   #  7   #  1    #      #    
ESPN BPI               +24.10                 97.2     # 10   #  1    #224   #311
Whitlock               +16.14                          #  5   #  1    #186   #314
Colley Matrix          +19.33                          #  2   #  1    #160   #286
NCAA NET                                               #  9           #214
LRMC                                                   #  8   #  2    #231   #324
common opponents       +19.50         
Massey composite                                       #  4           #198
Pomeroy offense                                        # 29           #204
Pomeroy defense                                        #  7           #212
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 79           # 99
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +20.57   80.9 62.5     89.5
scatter                  3.67    4.6  4.6     11.3

Here is Kansas' season, with future games based on the assumption that the
higher seed will advance:

                                                                            CUMU.
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.   PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----   -----
HOME   #318 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           89  64   +29.84    -4.84
HOME   #219 North Dakota State          82  59   +23.45    -0.45
NEUT   # 18 Duke                        69  64    +3.27    +1.73
HOME   #127 Southern Utah               82  76   +18.16   -12.16
NEUT   # 47 NC State                    80  74    +6.44    -0.44
NEUT   # 58 Wisconsin                   69  68    +7.84    -6.84
NEUT   #  3 Tennessee                   50  64    -1.58   -12.42
HOME   #282 Texas Southern              87  55   +27.62    +4.38
HOME   # 56 Seton Hall                  91  65   +10.70   +15.30
AWAY   # 53 Missouri                    95  67    +4.15   +23.85
HOME   # 15 Indiana                     84  62    +6.18   +15.82
HOME   #166 Harvard                     68  54   +20.71    -6.71
HOME   # 37 Oklahoma State              69  67    +8.66    -6.66
AWAY   # 36 Texas Tech                  75  72    +2.18    +0.82
AWAY   # 23 West Virginia               76  62    +0.74   +13.26
HOME   # 54 Oklahoma                    79  75   +10.49    -6.49
HOME   # 25 Iowa State                  62  60    +7.11    -5.11
AWAY   # 30 Kansas State                82  83    +1.14    -2.14
HOME   # 17 TCU                         60  83    +6.39   -29.39
AWAY   # 11 Baylor                      69  75    -1.94    -4.06
AWAY   # 21 Kentucky                    77  68    +0.68    +8.32
HOME   # 30 Kansas State                90  78    +7.42    +4.58
AWAY   # 25 Iowa State                  53  68    +0.83   -15.83
HOME   #  5 Texas                       88  80    +2.57    +5.43
AWAY   # 54 Oklahoma                    78  55    +4.21   +18.79
AWAY   # 37 Oklahoma State              87  76    +2.38    +8.62
HOME   # 11 Baylor                      87  71    +4.34   +11.66
AWAY   # 17 TCU                         63  58    +0.11    +4.89
HOME   # 23 West Virginia               76  74    +7.02    -5.02
HOME   # 36 Texas Tech                  67  63    +8.46    -4.46
AWAY   #  5 Texas                       59  75    -3.71   -12.29
NEUT   # 23 West Virginia               78  61    +3.88   +13.12
NEUT   # 25 Iowa State                  71  58    +3.97    +9.03
NEUT   #  5 Texas                       56  76    -0.57   -19.43
NEUT   #235 Howard                               +21.68             0.959   0.959
NEUT   # 16 Arkansas                              +3.15             0.610   0.585
NEUT   #  6 Connecticut                           -0.56             0.480   0.281
NEUT   #  4 UCLA                                  -1.26             0.456   0.128
NEUT   #  1 Houston                               -3.13             0.391   0.050
NEUT   #  2 Alabama                               -2.99             0.396   0.020

Here is Howard's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   # 21 Kentucky                    63  95   -21.00   -11.00
Div2        District of Columbia        87  74
AWAY   #196 George Washington           75  85    -5.79    -4.21
Div3        Gallaudet                  108  56
HOME   #105 James Madison               69  95    -5.71   -20.29
NEUT   #151 Wyoming                     71  78    -5.28    -1.72
NEUT   #183 Buffalo                     63  59    -3.36    +7.36
NEUT   #114 Belmont                     73  96    -7.80   -15.20
AWAY   #324 Austin Peay                 56  55    +2.49    -1.49
AWAY   # 78 Yale                        40  86   -15.11   -30.89
AWAY   #342 Hampton                     65  74    +4.87   -13.87
AWAY   # 55 VCU(Va. Commonwealth)       60  70   -17.34    +7.34
HOME   #218 Fla. International          71  59    +1.67   +10.33
AWAY   #166 Harvard                     66  54    -7.25   +19.25
HOME   #280 Mount St. Mary's            63  62    +5.84    -4.84
HOME   #211 La Salle                    76  80    +1.26    -5.26
HOME   #358 Delaware State              84  64   +14.57    +5.43
AWAY   #292 Md.-Eastern Shore(UMES)     73  82    +0.05    -9.05
AWAY   #205 Norfolk State               86  84    -5.13    +7.13
HOME   #245 Morehead State              89  65    +3.78   +20.22
HOME   #328 Morgan State                88  56    +9.10   +22.90
HOME   #343 Coppin State                90  76   +11.15    +2.85
HOME   #220 NC Central                  71  67    +1.84    +2.16
HOME   #355 SC State                   100  74   +13.41   +12.59
AWAY   #358 Delaware State              86  85    +8.29    -7.29
HOME   #292 Md.-Eastern Shore(UMES)     78  69    +6.33    +2.67
AWAY   #343 Coppin State                80  70    +4.87    +5.13
AWAY   #328 Morgan State                76  89    +2.82   -15.82
AWAY   #220 NC Central                  60  68    -4.44    -3.56
AWAY   #355 SC State                    82  78    +7.13    -3.13
HOME   #205 Norfolk State               87  67    +1.15   +18.85
NEUT   #355 SC State                    91  55   +10.27   +25.73
NEUT   #292 Md.-Eastern Shore(UMES)     74  55    +3.19   +15.81
NEUT   #205 Norfolk State               65  64    -1.99    +2.99
NEUT   #  9 Kansas                               -21.68             0.041