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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Texas game
- asteroid
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1 year 8 months ago #30610
by asteroid
Rubber match. A conference tournament championship is at stake, but both
teams are eyeing the Big Dance and may save their ailing players (Timmy
Allen for Texas, Kevin McCullar for Kansas) for the bigger prize. That
may take a bit of lustre off today's game.
The BPI is picking Texas, and the common opponents comparison also favors
Texas, but the rest of the prognosticators are picking Kansas. Some would
consider the game a "semi-home" game for Kansas and use half the usual home
court advantage, so that might be worth a couple more points for Kansas.
The average favors Kansas by 1.48 points with a 1.65 point scatter.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats UT KU Defensive Stats UT KU
Points/Game 77.9 75.5 Opp Points/Game 67.8 67.7
Avg Score Margin +10.2 +7.8 Opp Effective FG % 47.9 46.9
Assists/Game 16.1 16.7 Off Rebounds/Gm 8.6 8.5
Total Rebounds/Gm 34.2 36.0 Def Rebounds/Gm 23.1 24.8
Effective FG % 52.7 52.7 Blocks/Game 3.8 3.8
Off Rebound % 27.5 26.8 Steals/Game 8.1 8.9
FTA/FGA 0.319 0.303 Personal Fouls/Gm 17.9 16.7
Turnover % 14.4 15.2
My Stats Comparison KU UT
=================== ============= ============
performance +0.41 +0.89
inconsistency 11.25 10.41
trend +0.13 ± 0.21 0.00 ± 0.19
mental toughness +0.14 ± 0.25 -0.17 ± 0.17
average total pts 143.21 145.67
Common Opponents
================
There are nine common opponents, eight in conference and Tennessee. Both teams
have played all the conference members at least twice, in which case I'll use only
the home-home and road-road permutations. Each has also played two tournament games,
in which case I'll use the neutral-home and neutral-road permutations, and we have
the two head-to-head games in Lawrence and Austin, giving us twenty-seven scores to
compare:
KU +23 OU on road (+27 neutral court) KU +4 OU at home ( 0 neutral court)
UT +1 OU on road ( +5 neutral court) UT +2 OU at home ( -2 neutral court)
KU +22 UT neutral (+22 neutral court) KU +2 UT neutral ( +2 neutral court)
KU +12 KSU at home ( +8 neutral court) KU -1 KSU on road ( +3 neutral court)
UT -13 KSU at home (-17 neutral court) UT +3 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court)
KU +25 UT neutral (+25 neutral court) KU -4 UT neutral ( -4 neutral court)
KU +11 OSU on road (+15 neutral court) KU +2 OSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
UT +10 OSU on road (+14 neutral court) UT +14 OSU at home (+10 neutral court)
KU +1 UT neutral ( +1 neutral court) KU -12 UT neutral (-12 neutral court)
KU -23 TCU at home (-27 neutral court) KU +5 TCU on road ( +9 neutral court)
UT +4 TCU at home ( 0 neutral court) UT -2 TCU on road ( +2 neutral court)
KU -27 UT neutral (-27 neutral court) KU +7 UT neutral ( +7 neutral court)
KU +4 TTU at home ( 0 neutral court) KU +3 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court)
UT +2 TTU at home ( -2 neutral court) UT -7 TTU on road ( -3 neutral court)
KU -2 UT neutral ( -2 neutral court) KU +10 UT neutral (+10 neutral court)
KU -15 ISU on road (-11 neutral court) KU +2 ISU at home ( -2 neutral court)
UT -11 ISU on road ( -7 neutral court) UT +18 ISU at home (+14 neutral court)
KU -4 UT neutral ( -4 neutral court) KU -16 UT neutral (-16 neutral court)
KU +14 WVU on road (+18 neutral court) KU +2 WVU at home ( -2 neutral court)
UT +8 WVU on road (+12 neutral court) UT +34 WVU at home (+30 neutral court)
KU +6 UT neutral ( +6 neutral court) UT -32 UT neutral (-32 neutral court)
KU +16 BU at home (+12 neutral court) KU -6 BU on road ( -2 neutral court)
UT +5 BU at home ( +1 neutral court) UT -9 BU on road ( -5 neutral court)
KU +11 UT neutral (+11 neutral court) KU +3 UT neutral ( +3 neutral court)
KU +8 UT at home ( +4 neutral court) KU -16 UT on road (-12 neutral court)
KU +4 UT neutral ( +4 neutral court) KU -12 UT neutral (-12 neutral court)
KU +11 OSU on road (+15 neutral court) KU +2 OSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
UT +14 OSU neutral (+14 neutral court) UT +14 OSU neutral (+14 neutral court)
KU +1 UT neutral ( +1 neutral court) KU -16 UT neutral (-16 neutral court)
KU -14 Ten neutral (-14 neutral court)
UT -11 Ten on road ( -7 neutral court)
KU -7 UT neutral ( -7 neutral court)
KU +17 WVU neutral (+17 neutral court) KU +17 WVU neutral (+17 neutral court)
UT +8 WVU on road (+12 neutral court) UT +34 WVU at home (+30 neutral court)
KU +5 UT neutral ( +5 neutral court) KU -13 UT neutral (-13 neutral court)
KU -23 TCU at home (-27 neutral court) KU +5 TCU on road ( +9 neutral court)
UT +6 TCU neutral ( +6 neutral court) UT +6 TCU neutral ( +6 neutral court)
KU -33 UT neutral (-33 neutral court) KU +3 UT neutral ( +3 neutral court)
KU +13 ISU neutral (+13 neutral court) KU +13 ISU neutral (+13 neutral court)
UT -11 ISU on road ( -7 neutral court) UT +18 ISU at home (+14 neutral court)
KU +20 UT neutral (+20 neutral court) KU -1 UT neutral ( -1 neutral court)
Fourteen of the comparisons favor Kansas, and twelve favor Texas. The average favors
Texas by 2.19 points, with a scatter of 14.74 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Marcus Carr (guard)
most points Marcus Carr (guard)
most rebounds Timmy Allen (forward)
most assists Marcus Carr (guard)
most steals Marcus Carr (guard)
most blocks Dylan Disu (forward)
most turnovers Timmy Allen (forward)
most fouls Dylan Disu (forward)
Timmy Allen sat out for the semifinal game against TCU to avoid aggravating a
leg injury. There is some speculation that they'll hold him out until the Big
Dance.
McCullar sat out almost the entire second half against Iowa State because of
back spasms. It would seem he'd be day-to-day.
27-6 25-8
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Texas
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall +1.07 74 73 54 # 4 # 1 # 7 # 8
Sagarin Predictor +0.19 74 74 50.7 # 7 # 1 # 8 # 8
Sagarin Golden Mean +1.64 74 73 # 3 # 1 # 7 # 8
Sagarin Recent Games +1.31 74 73 # 4 # 1 # 8 # 8
Sagarin Eigenvector +3.17 75 72 62
Massey +2.00 72 70 57 # 2 # 1 # 7 # 7
Pomeroy +0.28 73 72 # 8 # 1 # 9 # 8
Greenfield +2.00 72 70 50.0 # 7 # 1 # 8 # 4
Dunkel +4.50 69 65 # 3 # 9
Vegas (via Dunkel) +1.50 72 70
Dolphin Predictive +0.34 73 72 51.2 # 8 # 1 # 5 # 4
Real Time +2.00 70 68 54.2 # 3 # 5 # 14 # 21
Seven Overtimes +3.00 74 71 63 # 10 # 1 # 24 # 20
DPPI # 7 # 1 # #
ESPN BPI -0.50 48.3 # 9 # 1 # 6 # 8
Whitlock +0.93 # 5 # 1 # 8 # 9
Colley Matrix +4.00 # 2 # 1 # 9 # 12
NCAA NET # 8 # 9
LRMC # 12 # 2 # 8 # 17
common opponents -2.19
Massey composite # 4 # 7
Pomeroy offense # 25 # 18
Pomeroy defense # 6 # 12
Pomeroy tempo # 72 # 82
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +1.48 72.8 71.0 54.5
scatter 1.65 1.7 2.5 5.2
Here is Kansas' season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #318 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 89 64 +30.14 -5.14
HOME #219 North Dakota State 82 59 +23.74 -0.74
NEUT # 19 Duke 69 64 +3.80 +1.20
HOME #121 Southern Utah 82 76 +17.98 -11.98
NEUT # 47 NC State 80 74 +6.66 -0.66
NEUT # 58 Wisconsin 69 68 +8.05 -7.05
NEUT # 3 Tennessee 50 64 -1.27 -12.73
HOME #285 Texas Southern 87 55 +28.07 +3.93
HOME # 57 Seton Hall 91 65 +10.98 +15.02
AWAY # 53 Missouri 95 67 +4.41 +23.59
HOME # 14 Indiana 84 62 +6.36 +15.64
HOME #166 Harvard 68 54 +21.00 -7.00
HOME # 40 Oklahoma State 69 67 +8.97 -6.97
AWAY # 36 Texas Tech 75 72 +2.49 +0.51
AWAY # 23 West Virginia 76 62 +1.08 +12.92
HOME # 54 Oklahoma 79 75 +10.82 -6.82
HOME # 24 Iowa State 62 60 +7.40 -5.40
AWAY # 29 Kansas State 82 83 +1.41 -2.41
HOME # 18 TCU 60 83 +6.71 -29.71
AWAY # 11 Baylor 69 75 -1.57 -4.43
AWAY # 21 Kentucky 77 68 +0.98 +8.02
HOME # 29 Kansas State 90 78 +7.69 +4.31
AWAY # 24 Iowa State 53 68 +1.12 -16.12
HOME # 8 Texas 88 80 +3.33 +4.67
AWAY # 54 Oklahoma 78 55 +4.54 +18.46
AWAY # 40 Oklahoma State 87 76 +2.69 +8.31
HOME # 11 Baylor 87 71 +4.71 +11.29
AWAY # 18 TCU 63 58 +0.43 +4.57
HOME # 23 West Virginia 76 74 +7.36 -5.36
HOME # 36 Texas Tech 67 63 +8.77 -4.77
AWAY # 8 Texas 59 75 -2.95 -13.05
NEUT # 23 West Virginia 78 61 +4.22 +12.78
NEUT # 24 Iowa State 71 58 +4.26 +8.74
NEUT # 8 Texas +0.19 0.507
Here is Texas' season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #175 UTEP 72 57 +21.23 -6.23
HOME #357 Houston Christian 82 31 +36.01 +14.99
HOME # 6 Gonzaga 93 74 +2.79 +16.21
NEUT #236 Northern Arizona 73 48 +21.88 +3.12
HOME #278 UTRGV 91 54 +27.39 +9.61
HOME # 12 Creighton 72 67 +4.85 +0.15
NEUT # 20 Illinois 78 85 +3.67 -10.67
HOME #336 Ark.-Pine Bluff 88 43 +32.51 +12.49
HOME #210 Rice 87 81 +22.98 -16.98
NEUT # 75 Stanford 72 62 +9.39 +0.61
HOME #106 Louisiana 100 72 +16.14 +11.86
HOME #331 Texas A&M-Commerce 97 72 +31.17 -6.17
AWAY # 54 Oklahoma 70 69 +4.35 -3.35
HOME # 29 Kansas State 103 116 +7.50 -20.50
AWAY # 40 Oklahoma State 56 46 +2.50 +7.50
HOME # 18 TCU 79 75 +6.52 -2.52
HOME # 36 Texas Tech 72 70 +8.58 -6.58
AWAY # 24 Iowa State 67 78 +0.93 -11.93
AWAY # 23 West Virginia 69 61 +0.89 +7.11
HOME # 40 Oklahoma State 89 75 +8.78 +5.22
AWAY # 3 Tennessee 71 82 -4.60 -6.40
HOME # 11 Baylor 76 71 +4.52 +0.48
AWAY # 29 Kansas State 69 66 +1.22 +1.78
AWAY # 7 Kansas 80 88 -3.33 -4.67
HOME # 23 West Virginia 94 60 +7.17 +26.83
AWAY # 36 Texas Tech 67 74 +2.30 -9.30
HOME # 54 Oklahoma 85 83 +10.63 -8.63
HOME # 24 Iowa State 72 54 +7.21 +10.79
AWAY # 11 Baylor 72 81 -1.76 -7.24
AWAY # 18 TCU 73 75 +0.24 -2.24
HOME # 7 Kansas 75 59 +2.95 +13.05
NEUT # 40 Oklahoma State 61 47 +5.64 +8.36
NEUT # 18 TCU 66 60 +3.38 +2.62
NEUT # 7 Kansas -0.19 0.493
The following user(s) said Thank You: sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, USAF Jayhawk
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