predictions for Iowa State game

Addition by subtraction?  Iowa State seemed to fade down the stretch, losing
four consecutive games when they were still in a position to challenge for
the conference championship.  Then Caleb Grill was dismissed from the team.
Did that change team chemistry enough to enable a whooping of Baylor in the
regular season finale, and then an encore performance in the quarterfinals
of the Big 12 Tournament?  The Cyclones lost by only 2 in Allen Field House
and won by 15 in Hilton Coliseum before all the recent drama unfolded.
Definitely need to take the Cyclones seriously.

Unlike yesterday's game, all the prognosticators favor Kansas in today's
game.  The most pessimistic are Seven Overtimes and DPPI, which favor Kansas
by only 3 points.  The most optimistic is Colley, who favors Kansas by a bit
over 9 points.  Next in line is Sagarin's eigenvector analysis, which has the
Jayhawks by a bit over 8 points.  The average of 17 prognostications is 4.8
points, with a scatter of 1.8 points.  It's worth noting that Colley is not
quite up-to-date with his ratings; yesterday's results haven't been included
yet.  Both Kansas and Iowa State played above expectation, Kansas by 13 and
Iowa State by 8, so both would be expected to improve their ratings, but I
would not expect the margin to shrink.

Like West Virginia, the trend and mental toughness ratings for Iowa State are
both negative, but neither is statistically significant.  Both values remain
positive for Kansas, but are still not significant.  The trend analysis puts
the margin at 4.6 points.

Ames being not that far away, and with fans that travel well to Kansas City,
the crowd advantage will not necessarily be in Kansas' favor.

We'll still be with Norm Roberts instead of Bill Self, but as somebody said
yesterday, with Dajuan Harris as your point guard, who needs a coach?  Well,
that undersells the importance of Self, but the comment has some merit to it.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      ISU     KU      Defensive Stats      ISU     KU
Points/Game         68.8    75.7     Opp Points/Game     62.5    68.0
Avg Score Margin    +6.3    +7.7     Opp Effective FG %  49.8    47.0
Assists/Game        14.3    16.8     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.7     8.5
Total Rebounds/Gm   33.5    36.3     Def Rebounds/Gm     21.0    25.0
Effective FG %      50.9    52.5     Blocks/Game          2.9     3.8
Off Rebound %       31.5    26.7     Steals/Game          8.8     8.8
FTA/FGA            0.279   0.297     Personal Fouls/Gm   19.0    16.8
Turnover %          16.5    15.0   

My Stats Comparison        KU              ISU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.40           +1.19    
inconsistency         11.26           11.65    
trend                 +0.10 ± 0.22    -0.10 ± 0.24
mental toughness      +0.12 ± 0.25    -0.11 ± 0.19
average total pts      143.66         131.26    

Common Opponents
================
There are nine common opponents, eight in conference and Missouri.  Both teams have
played all the conference members at least twice, in which case I'll use only the
home-home and road-road permutations.  Each has also played one tournament game,
in which case I'll use the neutral-home and neutral-road permutations, and we have
the head-to-head games in Lawrence and Ames, giving us twenty-three scores to compare:

KU  +16 BU  at home (+12 neutral court)     KU   -6 BU  on road ( -2 neutral court)
ISU +15 BU  at home (+11 neutral court)     ISU +15 BU  on road (+19 neutral court)
KU   +1 ISU neutral ( +1 neutral court)     KU  -21 ISU neutral (-21 neutral court)

KU  +23 OU  on road (+27 neutral court)     KU   +4 OU  at home (  0 neutral court)
ISU  +3 OU  on road ( +7 neutral court)     ISU -11 OU  at home (-15 neutral court)
KU  +20 ISU neutral (+20 neutral court)     KU  +15 ISU neutral (+15 neutral court)

KU   +5 TCU on road ( +9 neutral court)     KU  -23 TCU at home (-27 neutral court)
ISU  +2 TCU on road ( +6 neutral court)     ISU +11 TCU at home ( +7 neutral court)
KU   +3 ISU neutral ( +3 neutral court)     KU  -34 ISU neutral (-34 neutral court)

KU   +4 TTU at home (  0 neutral court)     KU   +3 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court)
ISU +34 TTU at home (+30 neutral court)     ISU  -3 TTU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU  -30 ISU neutral (-30 neutral court)     KU   +6 ISU neutral ( +6 neutral court)

KU   +8 UT  at home ( +4 neutral court)     KU  -16 UT  on road (-12 neutral court)
ISU +11 UT  at home ( +7 neutral court)     ISU -18 UT  on road (-14 neutral court)
KU   -3 ISU neutral ( -3 neutral court)     KU   +2 ISU neutral ( +2 neutral court)

KU  +11 OSU on road (+15 neutral court)     KU   +2 OSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
ISU  -2 OSU on road ( +2 neutral court)     ISU  -8 OSU at home (-12 neutral court)
KU  +13 ISU neutral (+13 neutral court)     KU  +10 ISU neutral (+10 neutral court)

KU  +12 KSU at home ( +8 neutral court)     KU   -1 KSU on road ( +3 neutral court)
ISU  +4 KSU at home (  0 neutral court)     ISU  -6 KSU on road ( -2 neutral court)
KU   +8 ISU neutral ( +8 neutral court)     KU   +5 ISU neutral ( +5 neutral court)

KU  +28 MU  on road (+32 neutral court)
ISU -17 MU  on road (-13 neutral court)
KU  +45 ISU neutral (+45 neutral court)

KU  +14 WVU on road (+18 neutral court)     KU   +2 WVU at home ( -2 neutral court)
ISU  -5 WVU on road ( -1 neutral court)     ISU  -3 WVU at home ( -7 neutral court)
KU  +19 ISU neutral (+19 neutral court)     KU   +5 ISU neutral ( +5 neutral court)

KU  +16 BU  at home (+12 neutral court)     KU   -6 BU  on road ( -2 neutral court)
ISU  +6 BU  neutral ( +6 neutral court)     ISU  +6 BU  neutral ( +6 neutral court)
KU   +6 ISU neutral ( +6 neutral court)     KU   -8 ISU neutral ( -8 neutral court)

KU  +17 WVU neutral (+17 neutral court)     KU  +17 WVU neutral (+17 neutral court)
ISU  -5 WVU on road ( -1 neutral court)     ISU  -3 WVU at home ( -7 neutral court)
KU  +18 ISU neutral (+18 neutral court)     KU  +24 ISU neutral (+24 neutral court)

KU   +2 ISU at home ( -2 neutral court)     KU  -15 ISU on road (-11 neutral court)
KU   -2 ISU neutral ( -2 neutral court)     KU  -11 ISU neutral (-11 neutral court)

Sixteen of the comparisons favor Kansas, and seven favor Iowa State, including both
of the head-to-head comparisons.  The average favors Kansas by 3.96 points, with a
scatter of 17.47 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Gabe Kalscheur (guard)
most points        Jaren Holmes (guard)
most rebounds      Aljaz Kunc (forward)
most assists       Tamin Lipsey (guard)
most steals        Tamin Lipsey (guard)
most blocks        Osun Osunniyi (center)
most turnovers     Tamin Lipsey (guard)
most fouls         Robert Jones (forward)

Caleb Grill has been dismissed from the team; he was third in minutes played per
game and third in points scored per game, but as noted above, is this addition by
subtraction?

                                                          25-6          19-12
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Iowa State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +4.97   71   66       68       #  6   #  1    # 26   #  2
Sagarin Predictor       +3.67   70   66       62.6     #  7   #  1    # 22   #  2 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +5.60   71   65                #  4   #  1    # 25   #  2 
Sagarin Recent Games    +5.34   71   65                #  5   #  1    # 27   #  2 
Sagarin Eigenvector     +8.14   72   64       77    
Massey                  +6.00   70   64       70       #  2   #  1    # 23   #  4
Pomeroy                 +3.15   67   64                #  8   #  1    # 20   #  5
Greenfield              +4.50   67   63       62.6     #  8   #  1    # 21   #  5
Dunkel                  +6.00   72   66                #  3           # 37
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +4.50   67   63                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +3.04   66   63       61.1     #  8   #  1    # 13   #  3
Real Time                                              #  3   #  4    # 69   # 12 
Seven Overtimes         +3.00   70   67       71       # 14   #  1    # 44   # 13
DPPI                    +3.00   70   67       58.0     #  7   #  1    # 21   #  8 
ESPN BPI                +3.20                 62.4     #  9   #  1    # 19   #  4
Whitlock                +4.32                          #  5   #  1    # 25   #  8
Colley Matrix           +9.23                          #  2   #  1    # 44   # 10
NCAA NET                                               #  8           # 17
LRMC                                                   # 12   #  2    # 30   # 19
common opponents        +3.96         
Massey composite                                       #  4           # 29
Pomeroy offense                                        # 27           # 90
Pomeroy defense                                        #  8           #  7
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 74           #328
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +4.80   69.5 64.9     65.9
scatter                  1.80    2.1  1.5      6.0

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #318 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           89  64   +29.85    -4.85
HOME   #218 North Dakota State          82  59   +23.47    -0.47
NEUT   # 21 Duke                        69  64    +3.66    +1.34
HOME   #125 Southern Utah               82  76   +17.91   -11.91
NEUT   # 46 NC State                    80  74    +6.44    -0.44
NEUT   # 56 Wisconsin                   69  68    +7.75    -6.75
NEUT   #  2 Tennessee                   50  64    -1.73   -12.27
HOME   #291 Texas Southern              87  55   +28.06    +3.94
HOME   # 54 Seton Hall                  91  65   +10.60   +15.40
AWAY   # 58 Missouri                    95  67    +4.80   +23.20
HOME   # 14 Indiana                     84  62    +6.20   +15.80
HOME   #167 Harvard                     68  54   +20.82    -6.82
HOME   # 38 Oklahoma State              69  67    +8.66    -6.66
AWAY   # 35 Texas Tech                  75  72    +2.26    +0.74
AWAY   # 23 West Virginia               76  62    +0.88   +13.12
HOME   # 55 Oklahoma                    79  75   +10.60    -6.60
HOME   # 22 Iowa State                  62  60    +6.80    -4.80
AWAY   # 29 Kansas State                82  83    +1.24    -2.24
HOME   # 15 TCU                         60  83    +6.30   -29.30
AWAY   # 12 Baylor                      69  75    -1.80    -4.20
AWAY   # 20 Kentucky                    77  68    +0.51    +8.49
HOME   # 29 Kansas State                90  78    +7.50    +4.50
AWAY   # 22 Iowa State                  53  68    +0.54   -15.54
HOME   #  8 Texas                       88  80    +3.17    +4.83
AWAY   # 55 Oklahoma                    78  55    +4.34   +18.66
AWAY   # 38 Oklahoma State              87  76    +2.40    +8.60
HOME   # 12 Baylor                      87  71    +4.46   +11.54
AWAY   # 15 TCU                         63  58    +0.04    +4.96
HOME   # 23 West Virginia               76  74    +7.14    -5.14
HOME   # 35 Texas Tech                  67  63    +8.52    -4.52
AWAY   #  8 Texas                       59  75    -3.09   -12.91
NEUT   # 23 West Virginia               78  61    +4.01   +12.99
NEUT   # 22 Iowa State                            +3.67             0.626

Here is Iowa States's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #358 IUPUI                       88  39   +32.68   +16.32
HOME   #315 NC A&T                      80  43   +26.04   +10.96
HOME   #228 Milwaukee                   68  53   +20.70    -5.70
NEUT   # 49 Villanova                   81  79    +3.15    -1.15
NEUT   # 33 North Carolina              70  65    +1.48    +3.52
NEUT   #  5 Connecticut                 53  71    -4.33   -13.67
HOME   #284 North Dakota                63  44   +24.12    -5.12
HOME   # 77 St. John's                  71  60    +9.20    +1.80
AWAY   # 26 Iowa                        56  75    -2.63   -16.37
HOME   #333 McNeese State               77  40   +28.23    +8.77
HOME   #287 Western Michigan            73  57   +24.25    -8.25
HOME   # 12 Baylor                      77  62    +0.79   +14.21
AWAY   # 55 Oklahoma                    63  60    +0.67    +2.33
AWAY   # 15 TCU                         69  67    -3.63    +5.63
HOME   # 35 Texas Tech                  84  50    +4.85   +29.15
AWAY   #  7 Kansas                      60  62    -6.80    +4.80
HOME   #  8 Texas                       78  67    -0.50   +11.50
AWAY   # 38 Oklahoma State              59  61    -1.27    -0.73
HOME   # 29 Kansas State                80  76    +3.83    +0.17
AWAY   # 58 Missouri                    61  78    +1.13   -18.13
AWAY   # 35 Texas Tech                  77  80    -1.41    -1.59
HOME   #  7 Kansas                      68  53    -0.54   +15.54
AWAY   # 23 West Virginia               71  76    -2.79    -2.21
HOME   # 38 Oklahoma State              56  64    +4.99   -12.99
HOME   # 15 TCU                         70  59    +2.63    +8.37
AWAY   # 29 Kansas State                55  61    -2.43    -3.57
AWAY   #  8 Texas                       54  72    -6.76   -11.24
HOME   # 55 Oklahoma                    50  61    +6.93   -17.93
HOME   # 23 West Virginia               69  72    +3.47    -6.47
AWAY   # 12 Baylor                      73  58    -5.47   +20.47
NEUT   # 12 Baylor                      78  72    -2.34    +8.34
NEUT   #  7 Kansas                                -3.67             0.374