predictions for West Virginia game

It's March.  Let the madness begin!

One surprise already:  Dunkel has predicted that West Virginia will win today's
game, giving the Mountaineers a 1.5 point margin.  Fortunately, Dunkel showed
himself to be the worst of the prognosticators during the 90-game conference
season.  All the rest are picking Kansas, but it's basically a one-possession
affair, with a score of Kansas 76, West Virginia 73.

Kansas has positive trend and mental toughness ratings, but neither is
statistically significant.  West Virginia's are both negative, but also not
significant.  The margin from the trend analysis is basically no different.

All the predictions are based on the game being played on a neutral court,
but with Kansas City being a stone's throw from Lawrence, and a large fan
base already in the metro area, one has to think that Kansas will have a
bit of a crowd advantage.  West Virginia, however, will have Huggins on the
bench, while Self will be missing from the Kansas bench, recovering from some
undisclosed illness.  That could motivate the Jayhawks; you know, "win one for
the gipper" sort of stuff.  But in a close game, critical decisions, including
when to get a timely technical foul, could make a difference, and Self won't
be making them.

Kansas is coming off five days of relative rest, while West Virginia had to
play a game yesterday.  Frankly, a good night of sleep ought to be enough for
these youngsters, so I don't see that as being a significant advantage for
Kansas.  Sure, if someone got knicked up the day before, such as a rolled
ankle, 24 hours isn't much time to recover, so it could make a difference,
but I'm not aware of any such injuries to the Mountaineers.  Meanwhile, I
read something about McCullar having back spasms, so he might not be at
100 percent for the game.  Strike two against the Jayhawks.  Fortunately,
the resume for Kansas is strong enough that an at-large bid to the Big Dance
will be in the offing, regardless of the outcome of today's game.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      WVU     KU      Defensive Stats      WVU     KU
Points/Game         76.8    75.6     Opp Points/Game     70.8    68.2
Avg Score Margin    +6.0    +7.4     Opp Effective FG %  50.5    46.9
Assists/Game        13.2    16.9     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.1     8.6
Total Rebounds/Gm   33.9    36.3     Def Rebounds/Gm     21.5    24.9
Effective FG %      51.8    52.3     Blocks/Game          3.1     3.9
Off Rebound %       32.8    26.9     Steals/Game          6.7     8.7
FTA/FGA            0.403   0.300     Personal Fouls/Gm   18.7    16.8
Turnover %          15.9    15.0   

My Stats Comparison        KU              WVU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.27           +1.28    
inconsistency         11.25           12.12    
trend                 +0.02 ± 0.23    -0.02 ± 0.24
mental toughness      +0.11 ± 0.25    -0.05 ± 0.24
average total pts      143.81         147.59    

Common Opponents
================
There are eight common opponents, all in conference, all of which both have played
twice, in which case I'll use only the home-home and road-road permutations, plus
the head-to-head games in Morgantown and Lawrence, and yesterday's tournament game
between West Virginia and Texas Tech, which I'll compare to both the Kansas home and
road games with Texas Tech, giving us twenty scores to compare:

KU   -1 KSU on road ( +3 neutral court)     KU  +12 KSU at home ( +8 neutral court)
WVU  -6 KSU on road ( -2 neutral court)     WVU  +8 KSU at home ( +4 neutral court)
KU   +5 WVU neutral ( +5 neutral court)     KU   +4 WVU neutral ( +4 neutral court)

KU  +11 OSU on road (+15 neutral court)     KU   +2 OSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
WVU  -7 OSU on road ( -3 neutral court)     WVU +18 OSU at home (+14 neutral court)
KU  +18 WVU neutral (+18 neutral court)     KU  -16 WVU neutral (-16 neutral court)

KU  +16 BU  at home (+12 neutral court)     KU   -6 BU  on road ( -2 neutral court)
WVU  -5 BU  at home ( -9 neutral court)     WVU -12 BU  on road ( -8 neutral court)
KU  +21 WVU neutral (+21 neutral court)     KU   +6 WVU neutral ( +6 neutral court)

KU  +23 OU  on road (+27 neutral court)     KU   +4 OU  at home (  0 neutral court)
WVU  -1 OU  on road ( +3 neutral court)     WVU +32 OU  at home (+28 neutral court)
KU  +24 WVU neutral (+24 neutral court)     KU  -28 WVU neutral (-28 neutral court)

KU  -23 TCU at home (-27 neutral court)     KU   +5 TCU on road ( +9 neutral court)
WVU  +9 TCU at home ( +5 neutral court)     WVU  -4 TCU on road (  0 neutral court)
KU  -32 WVU neutral (-32 neutral court)     KU   +9 WVU neutral ( +9 neutral court)

KU   +8 UT  at home ( +4 neutral court)     KU  -16 UT  on road (-12 neutral court)
WVU  -8 UT  at home (-12 neutral court)     WVU -34 UT  on road (-30 neutral court)
KU  +16 WVU neutral (+16 neutral court)     KU  +18 WVU neutral (+18 neutral court)

KU   +3 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court)     KU   +4 TTU at home (  0 neutral court)
WVU +15 TTU on road (+19 neutral court)     WVU  -6 TTU at home (-10 neutral court)
KU  -12 WVU neutral (-12 neutral court)     KU  +10 WVU neutral (+10 neutral court)

KU   +2 ISU at home ( -2 neutral court)     KU  -15 ISU on road (-11 neutral court)
WVU  +5 ISU at home ( +1 neutral court)     WVU  +3 ISU on road ( +7 neutral court)
KU   -3 WVU neutral ( -3 neutral court)     KU  -18 WVU neutral (-18 neutral court)

KU   +3 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court)     KU   +4 TTU at home (  0 neutral court)
WVU +16 TTU neutral (+16 neutral court)     WVU +16 TTU neutral (+16 neutral court)
KU   -9 WVU neutral ( -9 neutral court)     KU  -16 WVU neutral (-16 neutral court)

KU  +14 WVU on road (+18 neutral court)     KU   +2 WVU at home ( -2 neutral court)
KU  +18 WVU neutral (+18 neutral court)     KU   -2 WVU neutral ( -2 neutral court)

Eleven of the comparisons favor Kansas, and nine favor West Virginia.
The average favors Kansas by a mere 0.65 points, but with a scatter of 16.82 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Tre Mitchell (forward)
most points        Erik Stevenson (guard)
most rebounds      Tre Mitchell (forward)
most assists       Kedrian Johnson (guard)
most steals        Kedrian Johnson (guard)
most blocks        James Okonkwo (forward)
most turnovers     Erik Stevenson (guard)
most fouls         Erik Stevenson (guard)

Forward Mohamed Wague has been out with a right foot injury and no timetable for a
return.  Guard Josiah Davis has been out with a wrist injury, also with no timetable
for a return.  Wague is eighth on the team in minutes played per game and also eighth
in points scored per game, while Davis is last in both categories.  So the loss of
Wague may have some effect, while the loss of Davis has little to no effect.

                                                          25-6          19-13
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      West Virginia
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +3.15   77   74       62       #  7   #  1    # 16   #  6
Sagarin Predictor       +3.39   77   74       61.4     #  9   #  1    # 20   #  6 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +5.07   78   73                #  4   #  1    # 23   #  6 
Sagarin Recent Games    +2.07   76   74                #  7   #  1    # 13   #  6 
Sagarin Eigenvector     +6.17   78   72       71    
Massey                  +4.00   76   72       64       #  2   #  1    # 26   #  4
Pomeroy                 +2.24   76   74                #  9   #  1    # 16   #  4
Greenfield              +3.00   76   73                #  8   #  1    # 20   #  6
Dunkel                  -1.50   75   76                #  3           # 56
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +3.50   76   72                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +3.25   76   73       61.1     #  8   #  1    # 17   #  6
Real Time                                              #  3   #  4    # 56   #  2 
Seven Overtimes         +4.00   75   71       70       # 17   #  1    # 13   #  4
DPPI                    +3.00   75   72                #  8   #  1    # 16   #    
ESPN BPI                +3.30                 62.1     # 10   #  1    # 20   #  5
Whitlock                +3.68                          #  5   #  1    # 18   #  3
Colley Matrix           +8.92                          #  2   #  1    # 39   #  3
NCAA NET                                               #  8           # 19
LRMC                                                   # 11   #  2    # 18   #  4
common opponents        +0.65         
Massey composite                                       #  4           # 24
Pomeroy offense                                        # 25           # 14
Pomeroy defense                                        #  9           # 51
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 75           #108
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +3.41   76.2 73.1     64.5
scatter                  2.19    1.0  1.3      4.2

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #318 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           89  64   +29.55    -4.55
HOME   #219 North Dakota State          82  59   +23.21    -0.21
NEUT   # 26 Duke                        69  64    +3.82    +1.18
HOME   #123 Southern Utah               82  76   +17.50   -11.50
NEUT   # 46 NC State                    80  74    +5.75    +0.25
NEUT   # 56 Wisconsin                   69  68    +7.54    -6.54
NEUT   #  2 Tennessee                   50  64    -2.14   -11.86
HOME   #291 Texas Southern              87  55   +27.74    +4.26
HOME   # 57 Seton Hall                  91  65   +10.70   +15.30
AWAY   # 54 Missouri                    95  67    +4.38   +23.62
HOME   # 14 Indiana                     84  62    +5.86   +16.14
HOME   #168 Harvard                     68  54   +20.47    -6.47
HOME   # 37 Oklahoma State              69  67    +8.33    -6.33
AWAY   # 36 Texas Tech                  75  72    +2.02    +0.98
AWAY   # 20 West Virginia               76  62    +0.24   +13.76
HOME   # 53 Oklahoma                    79  75   +10.29    -6.29
HOME   # 22 Iowa State                  62  60    +6.75    -4.75
AWAY   # 28 Kansas State                82  83    +0.73    -1.73
HOME   # 18 TCU                         60  83    +6.38   -29.38
AWAY   # 11 Baylor                      69  75    -2.24    -3.76
AWAY   # 21 Kentucky                    77  68    +0.26    +8.74
HOME   # 28 Kansas State                90  78    +7.01    +4.99
AWAY   # 22 Iowa State                  53  68    +0.47   -15.47
HOME   #  8 Texas                       88  80    +3.12    +4.88
AWAY   # 53 Oklahoma                    78  55    +4.01   +18.99
AWAY   # 37 Oklahoma State              87  76    +2.05    +8.95
HOME   # 11 Baylor                      87  71    +4.04   +11.96
AWAY   # 18 TCU                         63  58    +0.10    +4.90
HOME   # 20 West Virginia               76  74    +6.52    -4.52
HOME   # 36 Texas Tech                  67  63    +8.30    -4.30
AWAY   #  8 Texas                       59  75    -3.16   -12.84
NEUT   # 20 West Virginia                         +3.38             0.614

Here is West Virginia's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #281 Mount St. Mary's            76  58   +23.84    -5.84
AWAY   # 62 Pittsburgh                  81  56    +1.49   +23.51
HOME   #244 Morehead State              75  57   +21.75    -3.75
HOME   #131 Pennsylvania                92  58   +14.86   +19.14
NEUT   # 10 Purdue                      68  80    -2.95    -9.05
NEUT   #248 Portland State              89  71   +19.08    -1.08
NEUT   # 52 Florida                     84  55    +3.57   +25.43
AWAY   # 17 Xavier-Ohio                 74  84    -3.36    -6.64
HOME   #191 Navy                        85  64   +18.31    +2.69
HOME   # 58 UAB                         81  70    +7.50    +3.50
HOME   #173 Buffalo                     96  78   +17.33    +0.67
HOME   #314 Stony Brook-NY              75  64   +25.94   -14.94
AWAY   # 28 Kansas State                76  82    -2.65    -3.35
AWAY   # 37 Oklahoma State              60  67    -1.33    -5.67
HOME   #  9 Kansas                      62  76    -0.24   -13.76
HOME   # 11 Baylor                      78  83    +0.66    -5.66
AWAY   # 53 Oklahoma                    76  77    +0.63    -1.63
HOME   # 18 TCU                         74  65    +3.00    +6.00
HOME   #  8 Texas                       61  69    -0.26    -7.74
AWAY   # 36 Texas Tech                  76  61    -1.36   +16.36
HOME   # 23 Auburn                      80  77    +3.38    -0.38
AWAY   # 18 TCU                         72  76    -3.28    -0.72
HOME   # 53 Oklahoma                    93  61    +6.91   +25.09
HOME   # 22 Iowa State                  76  71    +3.37    +1.63
AWAY   #  8 Texas                       60  94    -6.54   -27.46
AWAY   # 11 Baylor                      67  79    -5.62    -6.38
HOME   # 36 Texas Tech                  72  78    +4.92   -10.92
HOME   # 37 Oklahoma State              85  67    +4.95   +13.05
AWAY   #  9 Kansas                      74  76    -6.52    +4.52
AWAY   # 22 Iowa State                  72  69    -2.91    +5.91
HOME   # 28 Kansas State                89  81    +3.63    +4.37
NEUT   # 36 Texas Tech                  78  62    +1.78   +14.22
NEUT   #  9 Kansas                                -3.38             0.386