Big 12 summary

                     Init Rd 1 Rd 2 Rd 3 Rd 4 Rd 5 Rd 6 Rd 7 Rd 8 Rd 9 Rd10 Rd11 Rd12 Rd13 Rd14 Rd15
Pred                 Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj
Rank  Big XII Team   Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins
----  -------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
#  7  Kansas         11.6 11.4 12.0 13.1 12.8 12.9 12.3 11.3 10.8 11.2 10.6 11.1 11.4 12.0 12.4 12.9
#  8  Texas          11.3 11.6 10.5 11.2 11.4 11.7 11.0 11.6 12.0 12.3 12.7 12.3 12.7 12.0 12.2 12.5
# 27  Kansas State    6.4  7.2  8.8  9.6 10.1  9.5 10.2 10.7 10.5 10.3  9.9 10.5 10.0  9.4  9.9 10.5
# 11  Baylor         10.7  9.8  9.0  7.9  8.7  9.1  9.8 10.3 10.9 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.5 11.8 11.4 10.9
# 25  Iowa State      7.5  8.5  9.1 10.1 11.2 11.0 11.6 11.2 11.4 10.6 11.1 10.7  9.9 10.4 10.0  9.6
# 18  TCU             8.4  9.1 10.0  9.2  9.0  9.7  9.0 10.0 10.5 10.7 10.2  9.7  9.1  8.6  9.0  8.5
# 37  Oklahoma State  8.4  8.2  8.6  7.9  7.3  6.9  7.3  7.8  7.4  8.2  8.7  9.0  9.8  9.3  8.8  8.4
# 23  West Virginia   9.3  8.3  7.7  6.9  6.2  5.7  6.5  5.9  6.7  6.3  6.8  7.2  6.8  6.5  5.8  6.3
# 32  Texas Tech      9.1  8.8  8.1  7.1  6.3  6.3  5.5  5.0  4.2  4.8  4.4  4.0  4.6  5.2  5.9  6.4
# 51  Oklahoma        7.3  7.1  6.2  7.0  7.0  7.2  6.8  6.2  5.6  5.2  4.9  4.6  4.2  4.8  4.6  4.0

                      Rd16  Rd17        
Pred                  Proj  Proj  Conf  
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins  Wins  Recrd  Next Game  Prediction
----  --------------  ----  ----  -----  ---------  --------------
#  7  Kansas          13.2  13.4  13  5   tbd Thu
#  8  Texas           12.0  11.6  12  6   tbd Thu
# 27  Kansas State    11.1  11.4  11  7   TCU Thu   KSU 75  TCU 74
# 11  Baylor          11.3  11.7  11  7   ISU Thu   BU  68  ISU 67
# 25  Iowa State       8.9   8.3   9  9   BU  Thu
# 18  TCU              9.0   9.5   9  9   KSU Thu
# 37  Oklahoma State   7.8   7.4   8 10   OU  Wed   OSU 67  OU  66
# 23  West Virginia    6.0   6.6   7 11   TTU Wed   WVU 76  TTU 73
# 32  Texas Tech       5.9   5.6   5 13   WVU Wed
# 51  Oklahoma         4.8   4.5   5 13   OSU Wed

How did the teams do in reality compared to their pre-conference-season projection?
We've seen differences of 3-some wins in previous seasons, but they've been rare.
Differences as large as 4 wins may well be unprecedented.

Team             Prediction  Actual  Differance
---------------  ----------  ------  ----------
Kansas State         6.4       11       +4.6
Iowa State           7.5        9       +1.5
Kansas              11.6       13       +1.4
Texas               11.3       12       +0.7
TCU                  8.4        9       +0.6
Baylor              10.7       11       +0.3
Oklahoma State       8.4        8       -0.4
West Virginia        9.3        7       -2.3
Oklahoma             7.3        5       -2.3
Texas Tech           9.1        5       -4.1

The BPI took honors for best prognostications in Round 18 with a total error of 57 points.  My trend
analysis pulled up the rear with a total error of 78.4 points.  Vegas won the season with an average
error of 9.0 points per game, with Dunkel in last place at 10.7 points per game.  As in previous
seasons, it's not entirely an apples to apples comparison, as some prognosticators only work in
integer points, like Massey, while others work in half-integer points, like Dunkel and Vegas, so to
be fair, which prognosticators fell within a half point of Vegas?  Sagarin Overall (9.2), Sagarin
Predictor (9.2), Sagarin Golden Mean (9.2), Sagarin Recent Games (9.3), Massey (9.1), Pomeroy (9.3),
Greenfield (9.1), Dolphin (9.1), Colley (9.4), Whitlock (9.3), BPI (9.2), Seven Overtimes (9.1), my
performance tweak to Sagarin Predictor (9.2), my home court advantage tweak to Sagarin Predictor (9.1).
It would have been easier to list the ones that failed to measure up:  Sagarin Eigenvector (9.8),
Dunkel (10.7), Real Time (9.7), and my trend analysis (10.1).  Dunkel is really bad at this.

Only one road win had been projected for Round 18, but two happened.  We ended the regular
season two road wins ahead of the long-term one-in-three ratio, but that result is within
the range we've seen in previous seasons, so nothing unusual.  Actually, it's somewhat
amazing that the fraction of road wins is so predictable, even in a conference with as much
parity as the Big 12 had this season.  Admittedly, things looked a little strange at the very
beginning of the season, when road wins piled up quickly, but the rate settled down.

Road wins (32 out of 90)                     Home losses                                   RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
5 Kansas         TTU WVU OU  OSU TCU         1 Kansas         TCU                         +4 KU 
5 Baylor         WVU TTU OU  TCU OSU         1 Kansas State   UT                          +3 UT 
4 Texas          OU  OSU WVU KSU             1 Texas          KSU                         +2 BU 
3 Iowa State     OU  TCU BU                  3 Baylor         TCU KSU ISU                 +2 KSU
3 Kansas State   UT  BU  OSU                 3 Iowa State     OSU OU  WVU                  0 TCU
3 Oklahoma State OU  ISU TTU                 3 TCU            ISU BU  KU                   0 ISU
3 TCU            BU  KU  TTU                 4 Oklahoma State UT  KU  KSU BU              -1 OSU
2 Oklahoma       TTU ISU                     4 West Virginia  KU  BU  UT  TTU             -2 WVU         
2 Texas Tech     WVU OU                      6 Oklahoma       UT  ISU BU  OSU KU  TTU     -4 OU 
2 West Virginia  TTU ISU                     6 Texas Tech     KU  OU  BU  WVU TCU OSU     -4 TTU

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Kansas State    +1.29    Oklahoma State    8.79
Iowa State      +1.27    Kansas State      9.29
West Virginia   +1.13    Texas            10.57
Texas           +0.98    Baylor           10.95
Kansas          +0.26    Kansas           11.27
TCU             -0.04    Texas Tech       11.57
Oklahoma State  -0.26    Iowa State       11.77
Oklahoma        -0.34    West Virginia    12.09
Baylor          -0.51    Oklahoma         12.28
Texas Tech      -0.67    TCU              13.10

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
TCU             +0.18 +/- 0.27    Oklahoma        +0.19 +/- 0.24
Kansas State    +0.13 +/- 0.19    TCU             +0.17 +/- 0.20
Oklahoma        +0.06 +/- 0.25    Kansas          +0.11 +/- 0.25
Kansas          +0.02 +/- 0.23    Kansas State    -0.04 +/- 0.18
Texas Tech       0.00 +/- 0.24    West Virginia   -0.06 +/- 0.24
Oklahoma State  -0.03 +/- 0.18    Iowa State      -0.12 +/- 0.20
Texas           -0.06 +/- 0.22    Texas           -0.19 +/- 0.17
Baylor          -0.10 +/- 0.22    Oklahoma State  -0.20 +/- 0.18
West Virginia   -0.11 +/- 0.25    Baylor          -0.30 +/- 0.18
Iowa State      -0.16 +/- 0.25    Texas Tech      -0.35 +/- 0.18

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Texas           78.32   Iowa State      62.50   West Virginia   147.84   Texas            +9.13
Baylor          76.87   Oklahoma State  67.06   Texas           147.52   TCU              +6.74
West Virginia   76.35   Oklahoma        68.19   Baylor          147.32   Kansas           +6.71
Kansas State    75.39   TCU             68.39   Kansas State    144.45   Baylor           +6.42
Kansas          75.26   Kansas          68.55   Kansas          143.81   Kansas State     +6.32
TCU             75.13   Kansas State    69.06   TCU             143.52   Iowa State       +5.63
Texas Tech      73.26   Texas Tech      69.16   Texas Tech      142.42   West Virginia    +4.87
Oklahoma State  69.26   Texas           69.19   Oklahoma State  136.32   Texas Tech       +4.10
Iowa State      68.13   Baylor          70.45   Oklahoma        136.13   Oklahoma State   +2.19
Oklahoma        67.94   West Virginia   71.48   Iowa State      130.63   Oklahoma         -0.26

All Big 12 teams have strength of schedule ratings above 80.  Kansas crashed through the 83 level.

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          83.04 (  1)
Oklahoma        82.50 (  2)
Iowa State      82.46 (  3)
Baylor          82.16 (  5)
West Virginia   82.15 (  6)
Oklahoma State  81.55 (  8)
Texas           81.50 (  9)
TCU             80.56 ( 15)
Kansas State    80.28 ( 21)
Texas Tech      80.01 ( 25)

Home court advantage analysis is underway.  This may be the last season for which such an
analysis will be straightforward, as the new Big 12 will feature an unbalanced schedule.
I can already state that the home court advantage in the Big 12 was once again larger than
the national average, as my home court advantage tweak to Sagarin Predictor yielded a slight
improvement in average error, 9.1 points per game, compared to 9.2 points per game.