predictions for Texas game

ROCK CHALK CHAMPIONSHIP!!!

So as it turns out, today's game is moot regarding the conference championship,
which Kansas managed to win outright because nobody else can get to 13 wins.
It may still have major implications as to whether Kansas gets the #1 overall
seed in the Big Dance, but Lunardi thinks that the win over Texas Tech sealed
the deal for a 1 seed, regardless of today's outcome and the conference
tournament outcome, which will be a slugfest.  Kansas could add another four
Quad 1 games to its resume, which already has 20 such games on it, compared to
Houston's 5, Alabama's 13, Tennessee's 12, UCLA's 10, and Purdue's 13, all
ranked higher than Kansas in the NCAA's NET.

Amazingly, Colley has Texas ranked low enough that the home court advantage
isn't enough to overcome the ratings difference, so Colley favors Kansas by
1.6 points.  Sagarin's eigenvector analysis has it a hair more favorable at
1.8 points, but they're the only prognosticators who think that way.  The rest
have Texas winning by anywhere from a fraction of a point to 6.5 points.  The
average favors Texas by 2.45 points with a scatter of 2.34 points.  It's
predicted to be a one-possession affair.

Both Kansas and Texas have played below expectation their last two games.
Prior to that, Kansas ran off a string of five consecutive above-expectation
performances, while Texas played below expectation in three out of five games.
Those two above-expectation performances, however, were whoppers.  Still, the
strong performance by Kansas down the stretch is what earned them the title.

The Kansas trend and mental toughness values are positive, which is good, but
neither is statistically significant.  Both values for Texas are negative,
which is good news for Jayhawk fans, but the negative trend isn't statistically
significant, though the mental toughness value is marginally significant,
meaning the Longhorns don't play as well against the toughest competition, and
today's game falls into that cateogry.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      UT      KU      Defensive Stats      UT      KU
Points/Game         79.0    76.1     Opp Points/Game     69.0    68.0
Avg Score Margin   +10.0    +8.1     Opp Effective FG %  48.9    46.8
Assists/Game        16.5    17.1     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.9     8.7
Total Rebounds/Gm   34.0    36.3     Def Rebounds/Gm     22.6    25.0
Effective FG %      53.3    52.6     Blocks/Game          3.6     4.0
Off Rebound %       28.1    27.4     Steals/Game          8.0     8.8
FTA/FGA            0.312   0.302     Personal Fouls/Gm   18.2    16.7
Turnover %          14.6    15.1   

My Stats Comparison        KU              UT
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.53           +0.96    
inconsistency         11.13           10.44    
trend                 +0.12 ± 0.24    -0.14 ± 0.22
mental toughness      +0.18 ± 0.25    -0.22 ± 0.17
average total pts      144.13         147.97    

Common Opponents
================
There are eight common opponents, all in conference, all of which both have played
twice, in which case I'll use only the home-home and road-road permutations, plus
the head-to-head in Lawrence, giving us seventeen scores to compare:

KU  +23 OU  on road (+27 neutral court)     KU   +4 OU  at home (  0 neutral court)
UT   +1 OU  on road ( +5 neutral court)     UT   +2 OU  at home ( -2 neutral court)
KU  +18 UT  on road (+22 neutral court)     KU   -2 UT  on road ( +2 neutral court)

KU  +12 KSU at home ( +8 neutral court)     KU   -1 KSU on road ( +3 neutral court)
UT  -13 KSU at home (-17 neutral court)     UT   +3 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court)
KU  +21 UT  on road (+25 neutral court)     KU   -8 UT  on road ( -4 neutral court)

KU  +11 OSU on road (+15 neutral court)     KU   +2 OSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
UT  +10 OSU on road (+14 neutral court)     UT  +14 OSU at home (+10 neutral court)
KU   -3 UT  on road ( +1 neutral court)     KU  -16 UT  on road (-12 neutral court)

KU  -23 TCU at home (-27 neutral court)     KU   +5 TCU on road ( +9 neutral court)
UT   +4 TCU at home (  0 neutral court)     UT   -2 TCU on road ( +2 neutral court)
KU  -31 UT  on road (-27 neutral court)     KU   +3 UT  on road ( +7 neutral court)

KU   +4 TTU at home (  0 neutral court)     KU   +3 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court)
UT   +2 TTU at home ( -2 neutral court)     UT   -7 TTU on road ( -3 neutral court)
KU   -2 UT  on road ( -2 neutral court)     KU   +6 UT  on road (+10 neutral court)

KU  -15 ISU on road (-11 neutral court)     KU   +2 ISU at home ( -2 neutral court)
UT  -11 ISU on road ( -7 neutral court)     UT  +18 ISU at home (+14 neutral court)
KU   -8 UT  on road ( -4 neutral court)     KU  -20 UT  at home (-16 neutral court)

KU  +14 WVU on road (+18 neutral court)     KU   +2 WVU at home ( -2 neutral court)
UT   +8 WVU on road (+12 neutral court)     UT  +34 WVU at home (+30 neutral court)
KU   +2 UT  on road ( +6 neutral court)     UT  -36 UT  on road (-32 neutral court)

KU  +16 BU  at home (+12 neutral court)     KU   -6 BU  on road ( -2 neutral court)
UT   +5 BU  at home ( +1 neutral court)     UT   -9 BU  on road ( -5 neutral court)
KU   +7 UT  on road (+11 neutral court)     KU   -1 UT  on road ( +3 neutral court)

KU   +8 UT  at home ( +4 neutral court)
KU    0 UT  on road ( +4 neutral court)

Six of the comparisons favor Kansas, ten favor Texas, and one is a wash.
The average favors Texas by 4.12 points, with a scatter of 15.07 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Marcus Carr (guard)
most points        Marcus Carr (guard)
most rebounds      Timmy Allen (forward)
most assists       Marcus Carr (guard)
most steals        Marcus Carr (guard)
most blocks        Dylan Disu (forward)
most turnovers     Timmy Allen (forward)
most fouls         Dylan Disu (forward)

                                                          25-5          22-8
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Texas
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         -0.96   75   76       46       #  5   #  1    # 11   # 10
Sagarin Predictor       -2.54   74   77       40.7     #  7   #  1    # 11   # 10 
Sagarin Golden Mean     -0.85   75   76                #  3   #  1    # 11   # 10 
Sagarin Recent Games    -0.03   76   76                #  6   #  1    # 12   # 10 
Sagarin Eigenvector     +1.76   77   75       57    
Massey                  -1.00   72   73       49       #  2   #  1    #  9   #  6
Pomeroy                 -2.26   78   68                #  7   #  2    # 10   #  8
Greenfield              -3.50   72   76       40.1     #  7   #  1    #  8   #  4
Dunkel                  -6.50   69   75                #  3           # 11
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -3.50   73   76                                          
Dolphin Predictive      -2.46   72   75       41.5     #  6   #  1    #  7   #  3
Real Time               -5.00   71   76       41.1     #  3   #  6    # 18   # 23 
Seven Overtimes         -4.00   71   75       46       # 12   #  1    # 36   # 24
DPPI                    -3.70   72   75       39.6     #  8   #  1    # 12   #  9 
ESPN BPI                -6.00                 29.2     # 10   #  2    #  7   #  9
Whitlock                -1.07                          #  4   #  1    #  9   #  8
Colley Matrix           +1.59                          #  2   #  1    # 11   # 13
NCAA NET                                               #  6           # 10
LRMC                                                   #  8   #  2    # 11   # 22
common opponents        -4.12         
Massey composite                                       #  3           #  8
Pomeroy offense                                        # 21           # 18
Pomeroy defense                                        #  9           # 25
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 75           # 66
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 -2.45   73.4 74.9     43.0
scatter                  2.34    2.6  2.2      7.2

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is a 25-6
record:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #318 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           89  64   +29.61    -4.61
HOME   #211 North Dakota State          82  59   +22.77    +0.23
NEUT   # 27 Duke                        69  64    +4.21    +0.79
HOME   #124 Southern Utah               82  76   +17.77   -11.77
NEUT   # 47 NC State                    80  74    +6.35    -0.35
NEUT   # 54 Wisconsin                   69  68    +7.54    -6.54
NEUT   #  2 Tennessee                   50  64    -2.37   -11.63
HOME   #291 Texas Southern              87  55   +28.11    +3.89
HOME   # 57 Seton Hall                  91  65   +11.21   +14.79
AWAY   # 55 Missouri                    95  67    +4.44   +23.56
HOME   # 15 Indiana                     84  62    +6.01   +15.99
HOME   #168 Harvard                     68  54   +20.64    -6.64
HOME   # 40 Oklahoma State              69  67    +8.80    -6.80
AWAY   # 32 Texas Tech                  75  72    +1.65    +1.35
AWAY   # 26 West Virginia               76  62    +0.92   +13.08
HOME   # 53 Oklahoma                    79  75   +10.53    -6.53
HOME   # 29 Iowa State                  62  60    +7.38    -5.38
AWAY   # 23 Kansas State                82  83    +0.79    -1.79
HOME   # 17 TCU                         60  83    +6.25   -29.25
AWAY   #  9 Baylor                      69  75    -2.65    -3.35
AWAY   # 20 Kentucky                    77  68    +0.71    +8.29
HOME   # 23 Kansas State                90  78    +7.03    +4.97
AWAY   # 29 Iowa State                  53  68    +1.14   -16.14
HOME   # 11 Texas                       88  80    +3.69    +4.31
AWAY   # 53 Oklahoma                    78  55    +4.29   +18.71
AWAY   # 40 Oklahoma State              87  76    +2.56    +8.44
HOME   #  9 Baylor                      87  71    +3.59   +12.41
AWAY   # 17 TCU                         63  58    +0.01    +4.99
HOME   # 26 West Virginia               76  74    +7.16    -5.16
HOME   # 32 Texas Tech                  67  63    +7.89    -3.89
AWAY   # 11 Texas                                 -2.55             0.407

Here is Texas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #183 UTEP                        72  57   +20.79    -5.79
HOME   #356 Houston Christian           82  31   +34.69   +16.31
HOME   #  6 Gonzaga                     93  74    +2.29   +16.71
NEUT   #244 Northern Arizona            73  48   +21.69    +3.31
HOME   #282 UTRGV                       91  54   +26.81   +10.19
HOME   # 13 Creighton                   72  67    +4.08    +0.92
NEUT   # 19 Illinois                    78  85    +2.97    -9.97
HOME   #336 Ark.-Pine Bluff             88  43   +31.66   +13.34
HOME   #199 Rice                        87  81   +21.64   -15.64
NEUT   # 78 Stanford                    72  62    +9.13    +0.87
HOME   #108 Louisiana                  100  72   +15.99   +12.01
HOME   #330 Texas A&M-Commerce          97  72   +30.07    -5.07
AWAY   # 53 Oklahoma                    70  69    +3.72    -2.72
HOME   # 23 Kansas State               103 116    +6.46   -19.46
AWAY   # 40 Oklahoma State              56  46    +1.99    +8.01
HOME   # 17 TCU                         79  75    +5.68    -1.68
HOME   # 32 Texas Tech                  72  70    +7.32    -5.32
AWAY   # 29 Iowa State                  67  78    +0.57   -11.57
AWAY   # 26 West Virginia               69  61    +0.35    +7.65
HOME   # 40 Oklahoma State              89  75    +8.23    +5.77
AWAY   #  2 Tennessee                   71  82    -6.06    -4.94
HOME   #  9 Baylor                      76  71    +3.02    +1.98
AWAY   # 23 Kansas State                69  66    +0.22    +2.78
AWAY   #  7 Kansas                      80  88    -3.69    -4.31
HOME   # 26 West Virginia               94  60    +6.59   +27.41
AWAY   # 32 Texas Tech                  67  74    +1.08    -8.08
HOME   # 53 Oklahoma                    85  83    +9.96    -7.96
HOME   # 29 Iowa State                  72  54    +6.81   +11.19
AWAY   #  9 Baylor                      72  81    -3.22    -5.78
AWAY   # 17 TCU                         73  75    -0.56    -1.44
HOME   #  7 Kansas                                +2.55             0.593