Big 12 projection, Round 17

ROCK CHALK CHAMPIONSHIP!!!

                     Init Rd 1 Rd 2 Rd 3 Rd 4 Rd 5 Rd 6 Rd 7 Rd 8 Rd 9 Rd10 Rd11 Rd12 Rd13 Rd14 Rd15
Pred                 Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj
Rank  Big XII Team   Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins
----  -------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
#  7  Kansas         11.6 11.4 12.0 13.1 12.8 12.9 12.3 11.3 10.8 11.2 10.6 11.1 11.4 12.0 12.4 12.9
#  9  Baylor         10.7  9.8  9.0  7.9  8.7  9.1  9.8 10.3 10.9 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.5 11.8 11.4 10.9
# 10  Texas          11.3 11.6 10.5 11.2 11.4 11.7 11.0 11.6 12.0 12.3 12.7 12.3 12.7 12.0 12.2 12.5
# 22  Kansas State    6.4  7.2  8.8  9.6 10.1  9.5 10.2 10.7 10.5 10.3  9.9 10.5 10.0  9.4  9.9 10.5
# 17  TCU             8.4  9.1 10.0  9.2  9.0  9.7  9.0 10.0 10.5 10.7 10.2  9.7  9.1  8.6  9.0  8.5
# 29  Iowa State      7.5  8.5  9.1 10.1 11.2 11.0 11.6 11.2 11.4 10.6 11.1 10.7  9.9 10.4 10.0  9.6
# 37  Oklahoma State  8.4  8.2  8.6  7.9  7.3  6.9  7.3  7.8  7.4  8.2  8.7  9.0  9.8  9.3  8.8  8.4
# 25  West Virginia   9.3  8.3  7.7  6.9  6.2  5.7  6.5  5.9  6.7  6.3  6.8  7.2  6.8  6.5  5.8  6.3
# 32  Texas Tech      9.1  8.8  8.1  7.1  6.3  6.3  5.5  5.0  4.2  4.8  4.4  4.0  4.6  5.2  5.9  6.4
# 52  Oklahoma        7.3  7.1  6.2  7.0  7.0  7.2  6.8  6.2  5.6  5.2  4.9  4.6  4.2  4.8  4.6  4.0

The fractional projected win is just the probability of winning the final regular season game.

                      Rd16  Rd17        
Pred                  Proj  Proj  Conf  
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins  Wins  Recrd  Next Game  Prediction
----  --------------  ----  ----  -----  ---------  --------------
#  7  Kansas          13.2  13.4  13  4  @UT  Sat                                                      
#  9  Baylor          11.3  11.7  11  6   ISU Sat   BU  70  ISU 65                                     
# 10  Texas           12.0  11.6  11  6   KU  Sat   UT  76  KU  74                                     
# 22  Kansas State    11.1  11.4  11  6  @WVU Sat                                                      
# 17  TCU              9.0   9.5   9  8  @OU  Sat   TCU 71  OU  70                                     
# 29  Iowa State       8.9   8.3   8  9  @BU  Sat                                                      
# 37  Oklahoma State   7.8   7.4   7 10  @TTU Sat                                                      
# 25  West Virginia    6.0   6.6   6 11   KSU Sat   WVU 77  KSU 74                                     
# 32  Texas Tech       5.9   5.6   5 12   OSU Sat   TTU 70  OSU 67                                     
# 52  Oklahoma         4.8   4.5   4 13   TCU Sat                                                      

Vegas took honors for best prognostications in Round 17 with a total error of just 18 points.  The BPI
pulled up the rear with a total error of 30.7 points.  Vegas retains the season lead with an average
error or 8.7 points per game, while Dunkel continues in last place with an average error of 10.5 points
per game.

Two road wins were projected for Round 17, and two happened, though one of them turned out to be
West Virginia winning in Ames rather than Texas winning in Fort Worth.  Only one road win is
projected for Round 18, with TCU favored to win in Norman.  However, four games are predicted
to be one-possession affairs, while Baylor has a two possession margin over Iowa State.

Road wins (30 out of 85)                     Home losses                                   RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
5 Kansas         TTU WVU OU  OSU TCU         1 Kansas         TCU                         +4 KU 
5 Baylor         WVU TTU OU  TCU OSU         1 Kansas State   UT                          +3 BU 
4 Texas          OU  OSU WVU KSU             1 Texas          KSU                         +3 UT 
3 Kansas State   UT  BU  OSU                 2 Baylor         TCU KSU                     +2 KSU
3 TCU            BU  KU  TTU                 3 Iowa State     OSU OU  WVU                  0 TCU
2 Iowa State     OU  TCU                     3 TCU            ISU BU  KU                  -1 ISU
2 Oklahoma       TTU ISU                     4 Oklahoma State UT  KU  KSU BU              -2 OSU
2 Oklahoma State OU  ISU                     4 West Virginia  KU  BU  UT  TTU             -2 WVU         
2 Texas Tech     WVU OU                      5 Texas Tech     KU  OU  BU  WVU TCU         -3 TTU
2 West Virginia  TTU ISU                     6 Oklahoma       UT  ISU BU  OSU KU  TTU     -4 OU 

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Kansas State    +1.44    Oklahoma State    8.79
West Virginia   +1.27    Kansas State      9.39
Texas           +0.98    Texas            10.43
Iowa State      +0.95    Baylor           10.45
Kansas          +0.55    Kansas           11.13
TCU             +0.27    Iowa State       11.51
Baylor          -0.34    Texas Tech       11.67
Oklahoma State  -0.37    Oklahoma         12.15
Oklahoma        -0.52    West Virginia    12.28
Texas Tech      -0.73    TCU              12.99

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
TCU             +0.28 +/- 0.27    TCU             +0.19 +/- 0.20
Kansas State    +0.17 +/- 0.20    Kansas          +0.18 +/- 0.25
Kansas          +0.12 +/- 0.24    Oklahoma        +0.17 +/- 0.23
Texas Tech      +0.04 +/- 0.25    Kansas State    -0.02 +/- 0.18
Baylor          +0.02 +/- 0.22    West Virginia   -0.07 +/- 0.24
Oklahoma        -0.04 +/- 0.26    Iowa State      -0.18 +/- 0.19
Oklahoma State  -0.08 +/- 0.19    Texas           -0.23 +/- 0.17
Texas           -0.14 +/- 0.22    Oklahoma State  -0.24 +/- 0.18
West Virginia   -0.15 +/- 0.26    Baylor          -0.31 +/- 0.17
Iowa State      -0.32 +/- 0.25    Texas Tech      -0.35 +/- 0.18

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Texas           78.50   Iowa State      62.72   Texas           147.97   Texas            +9.03
Baylor          77.57   Oklahoma State  67.10   Baylor          147.87   Kansas           +7.33
West Virginia   76.00   TCU             68.27   West Virginia   147.10   TCU              +7.30
Kansas          75.73   Kansas          68.40   Kansas          144.13   Baylor           +7.27
TCU             75.57   Oklahoma        68.40   TCU             143.83   Kansas State     +6.67
Kansas State    75.13   Kansas State    68.47   Kansas State    143.60   Iowa State       +5.17
Texas Tech      73.50   Texas Tech      69.03   Texas Tech      142.53   West Virginia    +4.90
Oklahoma State  69.13   Texas           69.47   Oklahoma State  136.23   Texas Tech       +4.47
Iowa State      67.90   Baylor          70.30   Oklahoma        136.20   Oklahoma State   +2.03
Oklahoma        67.80   West Virginia   71.10   Iowa State      130.62   Oklahoma         -0.60

All Big 12 teams in the Top 25, with seven teams in the Top 10.  Amazing.

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          82.69 (  1)
Oklahoma        82.55 (  2)
Baylor          82.22 (  4)
Iowa State      82.20 (  5)
West Virginia   82.15 (  6)
Oklahoma State  81.31 (  8)
Texas           81.29 ( 10)
TCU             80.42 ( 16)
Kansas State    79.99 ( 23)
Texas Tech      79.98 ( 24)