predictions for Texas Tech game

First, it's worth noting that LRMC is finally on board for this season.  It's
about time, considering that the regular season is practically over.  Then
again, historically, LRMC has mainly aimed for the tournament, so I'm not
terribly surprised that they've waited this long to get on board.  But they
only provide rankings, not predictions.

Another dangerous game.  After the pressure cooker of a schedule that is the
Big 12, here we have a home game with predicted double-digit margins, which
might make the Jayhawks relax a bit.  But you can't take the Red Raiders
lightly.  Until their TCU nail-biter, they had played four consecutive games
above expectation, and still need to show the selection committee that they're
worthy of an at-large bid.  On the other hand, it's Senior Night, and when was
the last time Kansas has lost a game on Senior Night?  Especially with a
conference championship on the line?

Massey is the pessimist with just a 6 point margin for Kansas, while Sagarin's
eigenvector analysis is the optimist with a 17.7 point margin.  The average is
11 points with a scatter of 3 points.

Both teams were on hot streaks until their most recent game when both played
slightly below expectation.  The Kansas streak was five games, while the Texas
Tech streak was four games.  The Jayhawks can, once again, play a bit below
expectation and still win, which would even their season at 15 games above and
15 games below expectation, so statistically, Saturday's Texas game could go
either way, though the Jayhawks would need an above expectation game to win.
But all it takes is one victory in the next two games to earn at least a share
of the conference championship, and considering the strength of the conference
this year, that is quite an accomplishment.  Win both, or a Texas loss at TCU
on Wednesday would give the Jayhawks the title outright.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      TTU     KU      Defensive Stats      TTU     KU
Points/Game         74.3    76.4     Opp Points/Game     68.7    68.2
Avg Score Margin    +5.6    +8.3     Opp Effective FG %  48.9    46.9
Assists/Game        13.0    17.3     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.8     8.9
Total Rebounds/Gm   35.0    36.4     Def Rebounds/Gm     23.6    25.0
Effective FG %      53.0    52.9     Blocks/Game          3.0     3.9
Off Rebound %       30.4    28.2     Steals/Game          7.7     8.9
FTA/FGA            0.361   0.299     Personal Fouls/Gm   15.6    16.8
Turnover %          17.4    15.3   

My Stats Comparison        KU              TTU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.53           -0.77    
inconsistency         11.36           11.87    
trend                 +0.17 ± 0.25    +0.01 ± 0.27
mental toughness      +0.18 ± 0.26    -0.39 ± 0.19
average total pts      144.62         142.97    

Common Opponents
================
There are nine common opponents, eight in conference and Texas Southern, one of which
Texas Tech has played twice (Texas), one of which Kansas has played twice (Oklahoma
State), and six of which both have played twice (TCU, Oklahoma, Iowa State, Baylor,
Kansas State, West Virginia), in which case I'll use only the home-home and road-road
permutations, plus the head-to-head in Lubbock, giving us eightteen scores to compare:

KU  +32 TSU at home (+28 neutral court)
TTU +24 TSU at home (+20 neutral court)
KU  +12 TTU at home ( +8 neutral court)

KU   +5 TCU on road ( +9 neutral court)     KU  -23 TCU at home (-27 neutral court)
TTU  -6 TCU on road ( -2 neutral court)     TTU  -1 TCU at home ( -5 neutral court)
KU  +15 TTU at home (+11 neutral court)     KU  -18 TTU at home (-22 neutral court)

KU   +4 OU  at home (  0 neutral court)     KU  +23 OU  on road (+27 neutral court)
TTU  -5 OU  at home ( -9 neutral court)     TTU +11 OU  on road (+15 neutral court)
KU  +13 TTU at home ( +9 neutral court)     KU  +16 TTU at home (+12 neutral court)

KU  -15 ISU on road (-11 neutral court)     KU   +2 ISU at home ( -2 neutral court)
TTU -34 ISU on road (-30 neutral court)     TTU  +3 ISU at home ( -1 neutral court)
KU  +23 TTU at home (+19 neutral court)     KU   +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral court)

KU   +8 UT  at home ( +4 neutral court)     KU   +8 UT  at home ( +4 neutral court)
TTU  -2 UT  on road ( +2 neutral court)     TTU  +7 UT  at home ( +3 neutral court)
KU   +6 TTU at home ( +2 neutral court)     KU   +5 TTU at home ( +1 neutral court)

KU  +16 BU  at home (+12 neutral court)     KU   -6 BU  on road ( -2 neutral court)
TTU  -7 BU  at home (-11 neutral court)     TTU -27 BU  on road (-23 neutral court)
KU  +27 TTU at home (+23 neutral court)     KU  +25 TTU at home (+21 neutral court)

KU   -1 KSU on road ( +3 neutral court)     KU  +12 KSU at home ( +8 neutral court)
TTU -10 KSU on road ( -6 neutral court)     TTU  +8 KSU at home ( +4 neutral court)
KU  +13 TTU at home ( +9 neutral court)     KU   +8 TTU at home ( +4 neutral court)

KU   +2 WVU at home ( -2 neutral court)     KU  +14 WVU on road (+18 neutral court)
TTU -15 WVU at home (-19 neutral court)     TTU  +6 WVU on road (+10 neutral court)
KU  +21 TTU at home (+17 neutral court)     KU  +12 TTU at home ( +8 neutral court)

KU  +11 OSU on road (+15 neutral court)     KU   +2 OSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
TTU  -3 OSU on road ( +1 neutral court)     TTU  -3 OSU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU  +18 TTU at home (+14 neutral court)     KU   +1 TTU at home ( -3 neutral court)

KU   +3 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court)
KU  +11 TTU at home ( +7 neutral court)

Seventeen of the comparisons favor Kansas, and only one favors Texas Tech, namely the
TCU home game.  The average favors Kansas by 11.72 points, with a scatter of 10.46 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       De'Vion Harmon (guard)
most points        Kevin Obanor (forward)
most rebounds      Fardaws Aimaq (forward)
most assists       De'Vion Harmon (guard)
most steals        De'Vion Harmon (guard)
most blocks        Daniel Batcho (forward)
most turnovers     Fardaws Aimaq (forward)
most fouls         Kevin Obanor (forward)

Forward Daniel Batcho has been out with a lower body injury and no timetable
for a return to action.

                                                          24-5          16-13
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Texas Tech
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +9.20   78   69       79       #  3   #  1    # 35   # 31
Sagarin Predictor       +8.14   78   70       75.7     #  6   #  1    # 32   # 31 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +10.68   79   68                #  3   #  1    # 40   # 31 
Sagarin Recent Games    +8.84   78   69                #  3   #  1    # 32   # 31 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +17.69   82   65       91    
Massey                  +6.00   74   68       70       #  2   #  1    # 37   # 20
Pomeroy                +10.27   78   68                #  7   #  1    # 51   # 28
Greenfield              +9.00   80   70       79.3     #  6   #  1    # 36   # 25
Dunkel                 +15.50   79   64                #  3           # 58
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +9.00   77.5 68.5                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +8.75   76   67       78.0     #  5   #  1    # 35   # 20
Real Time              +11.00   79   68       71.6     #  3   #  4    #111   # 65 
Seven Overtimes        +14.00   79   65       83       # 10   #  1    #143   # 30
DPPI                   +10.30   77   67       75.5     #  8   #  1    # 66   # 39 
ESPN BPI               +11.20                 84.4     #  8   #  1    # 44   # 20
Whitlock               +10.89                          #  4   #  1    # 54   # 25
Colley Matrix          +16.69                          #  2   #  1    # 85   # 39
NCAA NET                                               #  6           # 54
LRMC                                                   #  8   #  2    # 47   # 60
common opponents       +11.72         
Massey composite                                       #  3           # 50
Pomeroy offense                                        # 20           # 61
Pomeroy defense                                        #  9           # 61
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 68           #164
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +11.05   78.2 67.6     78.8
scatter                  3.09    1.9  1.8      6.2

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is a 25-6
record:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #324 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           89  64   +30.11    -5.11
HOME   #207 North Dakota State          82  59   +22.89    +0.11
NEUT   # 28 Duke                        69  64    +4.58    +0.42
HOME   #120 Southern Utah               82  76   +17.56   -11.56
NEUT   # 46 NC State                    80  74    +6.70    -0.70
NEUT   # 54 Wisconsin                   69  68    +7.62    -6.62
NEUT   #  3 Tennessee                   50  64    -1.52   -12.48
HOME   #294 Texas Southern              87  55   +28.21    +3.79
HOME   # 57 Seton Hall                  91  65   +11.20   +14.80
AWAY   # 55 Missouri                    95  67    +4.61   +23.39
HOME   # 15 Indiana                     84  62    +5.89   +16.11
HOME   #168 Harvard                     68  54   +20.70    -6.70
HOME   # 37 Oklahoma State              69  67    +8.91    -6.91
AWAY   # 32 Texas Tech                  75  72    +1.88    +1.12
AWAY   # 24 West Virginia               76  62    +1.07   +12.93
HOME   # 49 Oklahoma                    79  75   +10.28    -6.28
HOME   # 26 Iowa State                  62  60    +7.61    -5.61
AWAY   # 25 Kansas State                82  83    +1.07    -2.07
HOME   # 16 TCU                         60  83    +6.44   -29.44
AWAY   #  9 Baylor                      69  75    -2.49    -3.51
AWAY   # 22 Kentucky                    77  68    +0.84    +8.16
HOME   # 25 Kansas State                90  78    +7.33    +4.67
AWAY   # 26 Iowa State                  53  68    +1.35   -16.35
HOME   # 10 Texas                       88  80    +3.90    +4.10
AWAY   # 49 Oklahoma                    78  55    +4.02   +18.98
AWAY   # 37 Oklahoma State              87  76    +2.65    +8.35
HOME   #  9 Baylor                      87  71    +3.77   +12.23
AWAY   # 16 TCU                         63  58    +0.18    +4.82
HOME   # 24 West Virginia               76  74    +7.33    -5.33
HOME   # 32 Texas Tech                            +8.14             0.758
AWAY   # 10 Texas                                 -2.36             0.415

Here is Texas Tech's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #230 Northwestern State          73  49   +19.15    +4.85
HOME   #294 Texas Southern              78  54   +23.20    +0.80
HOME   #138 Louisiana Tech              64  55   +13.76    -4.76
NEUT   # 13 Creighton                   65  76    -2.97    -8.03
NEUT   #236 Louisville                  70  38   +16.54   +15.46
NEUT   # 45 Ohio State                  73  80    +1.52    -8.52
HOME   #165 Georgetown                  79  65   +15.53    -1.53
HOME   #275 Nicholls State              78  71   +22.14   -15.14
HOME   #135 Eastern Washington          77  70   +13.73    -6.73
NEUT   #316 Jackson State              102  52   +21.31   +28.69
HOME   #356 Houston Christian          111  67   +30.00   +14.00
HOME   #355 SC State                   110  71   +29.82    +9.18
AWAY   # 16 TCU                         61  67    -4.83    -1.17
HOME   #  6 Kansas                      72  75    -1.88    -1.12
HOME   # 49 Oklahoma                    63  68    +5.27   -10.27
AWAY   # 26 Iowa State                  50  84    -3.66   -30.34
AWAY   # 10 Texas                       70  72    -7.37    +5.37
HOME   #  9 Baylor                      74  81    -1.24    -5.76
AWAY   # 25 Kansas State                58  68    -3.94    -6.06
HOME   # 24 West Virginia               61  76    +2.32   -17.32
AWAY   #108 LSU                         76  68    +5.48    +2.52
HOME   # 26 Iowa State                  80  77    +2.60    +0.40
AWAY   #  9 Baylor                      62  89    -7.50   -19.50
AWAY   # 37 Oklahoma State              68  71    -2.36    -0.64
HOME   # 25 Kansas State                71  63    +2.32    +5.68
HOME   # 10 Texas                       74  67    -1.11    +8.11
AWAY   # 24 West Virginia               78  72    -3.94    +9.94
AWAY   # 49 Oklahoma                    74  63    -0.99   +11.99
HOME   # 16 TCU                         82  83    +1.43    -2.43
AWAY   #  6 Kansas                                -8.14             0.242
HOME   # 37 Oklahoma State                        +3.90             0.645