Big 12 projection, Round 16

                     Init Rd 1 Rd 2 Rd 3 Rd 4 Rd 5 Rd 6 Rd 7 Rd 8 Rd 9 Rd10 Rd11 Rd12 Rd13 Rd14 Rd15
Pred                 Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj
Rank  Big XII Team   Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins
----  -------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
#  6  Kansas         11.6 11.4 12.0 13.1 12.8 12.9 12.3 11.3 10.8 11.2 10.6 11.1 11.4 12.0 12.4 12.9
# 10  Texas          11.3 11.6 10.5 11.2 11.4 11.7 11.0 11.6 12.0 12.3 12.7 12.3 12.7 12.0 12.2 12.5
#  9  Baylor         10.7  9.8  9.0  7.9  8.7  9.1  9.8 10.3 10.9 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.5 11.8 11.4 10.9
# 24  Kansas State    6.4  7.2  8.8  9.6 10.1  9.5 10.2 10.7 10.5 10.3  9.9 10.5 10.0  9.4  9.9 10.5
# 17  TCU             8.4  9.1 10.0  9.2  9.0  9.7  9.0 10.0 10.5 10.7 10.2  9.7  9.1  8.6  9.0  8.5
# 25  Iowa State      7.5  8.5  9.1 10.1 11.2 11.0 11.6 11.2 11.4 10.6 11.1 10.7  9.9 10.4 10.0  9.6
# 39  Oklahoma State  8.4  8.2  8.6  7.9  7.3  6.9  7.3  7.8  7.4  8.2  8.7  9.0  9.8  9.3  8.8  8.4
# 26  West Virginia   9.3  8.3  7.7  6.9  6.2  5.7  6.5  5.9  6.7  6.3  6.8  7.2  6.8  6.5  5.8  6.3
# 33  Texas Tech      9.1  8.8  8.1  7.1  6.3  6.3  5.5  5.0  4.2  4.8  4.4  4.0  4.6  5.2  5.9  6.4
# 49  Oklahoma        7.3  7.1  6.2  7.0  7.0  7.2  6.8  6.2  5.6  5.2  4.9  4.6  4.2  4.8  4.6  4.0

                      Rd16        
Pred                  Proj  Conf  
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins  Recrd  Next Game  Prediction
----  --------------  ----  -----  ---------  --------------
#  6  Kansas          13.2  12  4   TTU Tue   KU  78  TTU 68                                        
# 10  Texas           12.0  11  5  @TCU Wed
#  9  Baylor          11.3  10  6  @OSU Mon   BU  72  OSU 71                                        
# 24  Kansas State    11.1  10  6   OU  Wed   KSU 73  OU  66                                        
# 17  TCU              9.0   8  8   UT  Wed   TCU 76  UT  76
# 25  Iowa State       8.9   8  8   WVU Mon   ISU 68  WVU 66                                        
# 39  Oklahoma State   7.8   7  9   BU  Mon                                                         
# 26  West Virginia    6.0   5 11  @ISU Mon                                                         
# 33  Texas Tech       5.9   5 11  @KU  Tue                                                         
# 49  Oklahoma         4.8   4 12  @KSU Wed                                                         

Seven Overtimes took honors for best prognostications in Round 16 with a total error of 33.0 points.
Dunkel pulled up the rear again with a total error of 69.0 points.  Vegas retains the season lead
with an average error of 9.0 points per game, while Dunkel remains in the cellar with an average
error of 10.9 points per game.

Only one road win was projected for Round 16, but three happened.  Oklahoma unexpectedly won in
Ames, while Kansas State unexpectedly won in Stillwater.  TCU survived a toss-up game in Lubbock.
One road win is projected for Round 17, though Texas in Fort Worth is really a toss-up game,
while Baylor is favored in Stillwater, barely.

Road wins (28 out of 80)                     Home losses                                   RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
5 Kansas         TTU WVU OU  OSU TCU         1 Kansas         TCU                         +4 KU 
4 Baylor         WVU TTU OU  TCU             1 Kansas State   UT                          +3 UT 
4 Texas          OU  OSU WVU KSU             1 Texas          KSU                         +2 BU 
3 Kansas State   UT  BU  OSU                 2 Baylor         TCU KSU                     +2 KSU
3 TCU            BU  KU  TTU                 2 Iowa State     OSU OU                       0 ISU
2 Iowa State     OU  TCU                     3 Oklahoma State UT  KU  KSU                  0 TCU
2 Oklahoma       TTU ISU                     3 TCU            ISU BU  KU                  -1 OSU
2 Oklahoma State OU  ISU                     4 West Virginia  KU  BU  UT  TTU             -3 TTU         
2 Texas Tech     WVU OU                      5 Texas Tech     KU  OU  BU  WVU TCU         -3 WVU
1 West Virginia  TTU                         6 Oklahoma       UT  ISU BU  OSU KU  TTU     -4 OU 

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Kansas State    +1.55    Oklahoma State    8.96
West Virginia   +1.35    Kansas State      9.40
Iowa State      +1.13    Texas            10.59
Texas           +1.08    Baylor           10.64
Kansas          +0.58    Kansas           11.34
TCU             +0.22    Iowa State       11.62
Oklahoma State  -0.32    Texas Tech       11.89
Baylor          -0.41    Oklahoma         12.27
Oklahoma        -0.62    West Virginia    12.48
Texas Tech      -0.73    TCU              13.28

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
TCU             +0.31 +/- 0.29    Oklahoma        +0.20 +/- 0.24
Kansas          +0.16 +/- 0.25    TCU             +0.19 +/- 0.20
Kansas State    +0.12 +/- 0.21    Kansas          +0.18 +/- 0.26
Oklahoma        +0.02 +/- 0.28    Kansas State    -0.03 +/- 0.19
Baylor           0.00 +/- 0.24    West Virginia   -0.08 +/- 0.25
Texas Tech       0.00 +/- 0.27    Iowa State      -0.17 +/- 0.20
Oklahoma State  -0.08 +/- 0.20    Oklahoma State  -0.25 +/- 0.18
Texas           -0.15 +/- 0.24    Texas           -0.25 +/- 0.18
West Virginia   -0.19 +/- 0.28    Baylor          -0.32 +/- 0.18
Iowa State      -0.30 +/- 0.27    Texas Tech      -0.40 +/- 0.19

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Texas           78.62   Iowa State      62.32   Baylor          148.07   Texas            +9.28
Baylor          77.62   Oklahoma State  66.79   Texas           147.97   TCU              +7.62
Kansas          76.10   Oklahoma        67.90   West Virginia   147.31   Kansas           +7.59
West Virginia   76.07   TCU             68.03   Kansas          144.62   Baylor           +7.17
TCU             75.66   Kansas State    68.38   TCU             143.69   Kansas State     +6.48
Kansas State    74.86   Kansas          68.52   Kansas State    143.24   Iowa State       +5.61
Texas Tech      73.79   Texas Tech      69.17   Texas Tech      142.97   West Virginia    +4.83
Oklahoma State  69.24   Texas           69.34   Oklahoma State  136.03   Texas Tech       +4.62
Iowa State      67.93   Baylor          70.45   Oklahoma        135.59   Oklahoma State   +2.45
Oklahoma        67.69   West Virginia   71.24   Iowa State      130.25   Oklahoma         -0.21

Contrary to what Huggy Bear said in his postgame comments, West Virginia has not "by far"
played the toughest schedule in the country.  They haven't even played the toughest
schedule in the Big 12.  Yes, they did play Purdue, Xavier, and Auburn, all in the Top 50,
but Kansas can counter those with Tennessee, Indiana, Kentucky, Duke, and North Carolina
State, also all in the Top 50.  Every single one of the computer rating systems I follow
has Kansas with the toughest schedule.  At least Texas Tech has finally made it into the
Top 30, and they'll improve on that by playing in Lawrence on Tuesday.

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          82.80 (  1)
Oklahoma        82.29 (  3)
Iowa State      82.11 (  4)
Baylor          82.01 (  5)
West Virginia   81.94 (  6)
Oklahoma State  81.05 ( 12)
Texas           80.87 ( 13)
TCU             80.12 ( 20)
Kansas State    79.99 ( 25)
Texas Tech      79.43 ( 30)